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Bipolar disorder (BD) is a major psychiatric illness affecting around 1% of the global population. BD is characterized by recurrent manic and depressive episodes, and has an estimated heritability of around 70%. Research has identified the first BD susceptibility genes. However, the underlying pathways and regulatory networks remain largely unknown. Research suggests that the cumulative impact of common alleles with small effects explains only around 25–38% of the phenotypic variance for BD. A plausible hypothesis therefore is that rare, high penetrance variants may contribute to BD risk. The present study investigated the role of rare, nonsynonymous, and potentially functional variants via whole exome sequencing in 15 BD cases from two large, multiply affected families from Cuba. The high prevalence of BD in these pedigrees renders them promising in terms of the identification of genetic risk variants with large effect sizes. In addition, SNP array data were used to calculate polygenic risk scores for affected and unaffected family members. After correction for multiple testing, no significant increase in polygenic risk scores for common, BD-associated genetic variants was found in BD cases compared to healthy relatives. Exome sequencing identified a total of 17 rare and potentially damaging variants in 17 genes. The identified variants were shared by all investigated BD cases in the respective pedigree. The most promising variant was located in the gene SERPING1 (p.L349F), which has been reported previously as a genome-wide significant risk gene for schizophrenia. The present data suggest novel candidate genes for BD susceptibility, and may facilitate the discovery of disease-relevant pathways and regulatory networks.
Multiplex families with a high prevalence of a psychiatric disorder are often examined to identify rare genetic variants with large effect sizes. In the present study, we analysed whether the risk for bipolar disorder (BD) in BD multiplex families is influenced by common genetic variants. Furthermore, we investigated whether this risk is conferred mainly by BD-specific risk variants or by variants also associated with the susceptibility to schizophrenia or major depression. In total, 395 individuals from 33 Andalusian BD multiplex families (166 BD, 78 major depressive disorder, 151 unaffected) as well as 438 subjects from an independent, BD case/control cohort (161 unrelated BD, 277 unrelated controls) were analysed. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for BD, schizophrenia (SCZ), and major depression were calculated and compared between the cohorts. Both the familial BD cases and unaffected family members had higher PRS for all three psychiatric disorders than the independent controls, with BD and SCZ being significant after correction for multiple testing, suggesting a high baseline risk for several psychiatric disorders in the families. Moreover, familial BD cases showed significantly higher BD PRS than unaffected family members and unrelated BD cases. A plausible hypothesis is that, in multiplex families with a general increase in risk for psychiatric disease, BD development is attributable to a high burden of common variants that confer a specific risk for BD. The present analyses demonstrated that common genetic risk variants for psychiatric disorders are likely to contribute to the high incidence of affective psychiatric disorders in the multiplex families. However, the PRS explained only part of the observed phenotypic variance, and rare variants might have also contributed to disease development.
Multiplex families with a high prevalence of a psychiatric disorder are often examined to identify rare genetic variants with large effect sizes. In the present study, we analysed whether the risk for bipolar disorder (BD) in BD multiplex families is influenced by common genetic variants. Furthermore, we investigated whether this risk is conferred mainly by BD-specific risk variants or by variants also associated with the susceptibility to schizophrenia or major depression. In total, 395 individuals from 33 Andalusian BD multiplex families as well as 438 subjects from an independent, sporadic BD case-control cohort were analysed. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for BD, schizophrenia, and major depression were calculated and compared between the cohorts. Both the familial BD cases and unaffected family members had significantly higher PRS for all three psychiatric disorders than the independent controls, suggesting a high baseline risk for several psychiatric disorders in the families. Moreover, familial BD cases showed significantly higher BD PRS than unaffected family members and sporadic BD cases. A plausible hypothesis is that, in multiplex families with a general increase in risk for psychiatric disease, BD development is attributable to a high burden of common variants that confer a specific risk for BD. The present analyses, therefore, demonstrated that common genetic risk variants for psychiatric disorders are likely to contribute to the high incidence of affective psychiatric disorders in the multiplex families. The PRS explained only part of the observed phenotypic variance and rare variants might have also contributed to disease development.
Background: Biological psychiatry aims to understand mental disorders in terms of altered neurobiological pathways. However, for one of the most prevalent and disabling mental disorders, Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), patients only marginally differ from healthy individuals on the group-level. Whether Precision Psychiatry can solve this discrepancy and provide specific, reliable biomarkers remains unclear as current Machine Learning (ML) studies suffer from shortcomings pertaining to methods and data, which lead to substantial over-as well as underestimation of true model accuracy.
Methods: Addressing these issues, we quantify classification accuracy on a single-subject level in N=1,801 patients with MDD and healthy controls employing an extensive multivariate approach across a comprehensive range of neuroimaging modalities in a well-curated cohort, including structural and functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Diffusion Tensor Imaging as well as a polygenic risk score for depression.
Findings Training and testing a total of 2.4 million ML models, we find accuracies for diagnostic classification between 48.1% and 62.0%. Multimodal data integration of all neuroimaging modalities does not improve model performance. Similarly, training ML models on individuals stratified based on age, sex, or remission status does not lead to better classification. Even under simulated conditions of perfect reliability, performance does not substantially improve. Importantly, model error analysis identifies symptom severity as one potential target for MDD subgroup identification.
Interpretation: Although multivariate neuroimaging markers increase predictive power compared to univariate analyses, single-subject classification – even under conditions of extensive, best-practice Machine Learning optimization in a large, harmonized sample of patients diagnosed using state-of-the-art clinical assessments – does not reach clinically relevant performance. Based on this evidence, we sketch a course of action for Precision Psychiatry and future MDD biomarker research.
Bipolar disorder (BD) is a heritable mental illness with complex etiology. While the largest published genome-wide association study identified 64 BD risk loci, the causal SNPs and genes within these loci remain unknown. We applied a suite of statistical and functional fine-mapping methods to these loci, and prioritized 22 likely causal SNPs for BD. We mapped these SNPs to genes, and investigated their likely functional consequences by integrating variant annotations, brain cell-type epigenomic annotations, brain quantitative trait loci, and results from rare variant exome sequencing in BD. Convergent lines of evidence supported the roles of SCN2A, TRANK1, DCLK3, INSYN2B, SYNE1, THSD7A, CACNA1B, TUBBP5, PLCB3, PRDX5, KCNK4, AP001453.3, TRPT1, FKBP2, DNAJC4, RASGRP1, FURIN, FES, YWHAE, DPH1, GSDMB, MED24, THRA, EEF1A2, and KCNQ2 in BD. These represent promising candidates for functional experiments to understand biological mechanisms and therapeutic potential. Additionally, we demonstrated that fine-mapping effect sizes can improve performance and transferability of BD polygenic risk scores across ancestrally diverse populations, and present a high-throughput fine-mapping pipeline (https://github.com/mkoromina/SAFFARI).