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Aims: Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk.
Methods and results: From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies.
In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93–1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89–1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07–1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05–1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05–1.20) in group C.
Conclusions: We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.
Background: The introduction of modern troponin assays has facilitated diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction due to improved sensitivity with corresponding loss of specificity. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with elevated levels of troponin. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of troponin I in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome and chronic AF.
Methods: Contemporary sensitive troponin I was assayed in a derivation cohort of 90 patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome and chronic AF to establish diagnostic cut-offs. These thresholds were validated in an independent cohort of 314 patients with suspected myocardial infarction and AF upon presentation. Additionally, changes in troponin I concentration within 3 hours were used.
Results: In the derivation cohort, optimized thresholds with respect to a rule-out strategy with high sensitivity and a rule-in strategy with high specificity were established. In the validation cohort, application of the rule-out cut-off led to a negative predictive value of 97 %. The rule-in cut-off was associated with a positive predictive value of 88 % compared with 71 % if using the 99th percentile cut-off. In patients with troponin I levels above the specificity-optimized threshold, additional use of the 3-hour change in absolute/relative concentration resulted in a further improved positive predictive value of 96 %/100 %.
Conclusions: Troponin I concentration and the 3-hour change in its concentration provide valid diagnostic information in patients with suspected myocardial infarction and chronic AF. With regard to AF-associated elevation of troponin levels, application of diagnostic cut-offs other than the 99th percentile might be beneficial.