Refine
Year of publication
Document Type
- Working Paper (56)
- Article (8)
- Report (8)
- Book (1)
- Contribution to a Periodical (1)
Has Fulltext
- yes (74)
Is part of the Bibliography
- no (74)
Keywords
- Geldpolitik (16)
- monetary policy (10)
- European Central Bank (6)
- Europäische Union (6)
- Model Uncertainty (6)
- Monetary Policy (6)
- Währungsunion (5)
- rational expectations (5)
- Europäische Zentralbank (4)
- Robustness (4)
Institute
- Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (47)
- Wirtschaftswissenschaften (44)
- Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (37)
- Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE) (20)
- House of Finance (HoF) (11)
- ELEMENTS (1)
- Institute for Law and Finance (ILF) (1)
- Präsidium (1)
- Rechtswissenschaft (1)
In this paper, we provide some reflections on the development of monetary theory and monetary policy over the last 150 years. Rather than presenting an encompassing overview, which would be overambitious, we simply concentrate on a few selected aspects that we view as milestones in the development of this subject. We also try to illustrate some of the interactions with the political and financial system, academic discussion and the views and actions of central banks.
In this paper, we provide some reflections on the development of monetary theory and monetary policy over the last 150 years. Rather than presenting an encompassing overview, which would be overambitious, we simply concentrate on a few selected aspects that we view as milestones in the development of this subject. We also try to illustrate some of the interactions with the political and financial system, academic discussion and the views and actions of central banks.
Notenbanken haben heute nicht die Aufgabe, die Geldmenge zu kontrollieren. Ihr Job ist es, den Wert des Geldes – und damit den Preis der Wirtschaftsgüter in der jeweiligen Währung – zu stabilisieren. Doch wie ist diese Preisstabilität am besten herzustellen? Muss man dabei nicht doch die Geldmenge im Auge behalten? Unter monetären Ökonomen gibt es dazu eine wissenschaftliche Debatte.
This contribution draws on two recent publications in which the macroeconomic model data base (www.macromodelbase.com) is employed for model comparisons. The comparative approach is used to base policy analysis on a systematic evaluation of the different implications that a certain economic policy can have when submitted to different modeling approaches. In this manner, policy recommendations are more robust to modeling uncertainty. By extending the comparative approach to forecasting, the authors investigate the accuracy of different forecasting models and obtain more reliable mean forecasts.
In 2011 wurde der Preis für Wirtschaftswissenschaften der schwedischen Reichsbank im Gedenken an Alfred Nobel an die US-Ökonomen Thomas J. Sargent von der New York University und Chistopher A. Sims von Princeton University verliehen. Gerade deutsche Zeitungskommentare kritisierten die Forscher vielfach für die Verwendung „unrealistischer“ Annahmen wie Nutzenmaximierung und rationale Erwartungen. Diese Kritik verkennt den maßgeblichen Beitrag von Sargent und Sims zur Entwicklung der modernen Makroökonomik. Ihre empirischen Methoden sind heute Standardwerkzeuge der akademischen Forschung und werden auch von Ökonomen in Zentralbanken, Finanzministerien und internationalen Organisationen eingesetzt. Sie haben grundlegende neue Erkenntnisse ermöglicht, zum Beispiel über die Wirkungsweise der Geld- und Fiskalpolitik.
How to be a good European...
(2010)
Unter der Überschrift "Ich kaufe griechische Staatsanleihen weil..." sollten Persönlichkeiten aus Politik, Wirtschaft und Kultur kurz begründen, warum sie griechische Staatsanleihen gekauft haben bzw. kaufen werden--idealerweise unter Nachweis ihres finanziellen Engagements. Zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt kaufe ich keine griechischen Staatsanleihen...
Schlechte Erfahrungen
(2012)
Eine Transaktionssteuer auf Finanzgeschäfte würde weniger Geld einbringen, als viele ihrer Anhänger hoffen - und sie birgt gravierende ökonomische und juristische Risiken. Die Bundesregierung sollte sich der Belastungen durch eine Finanztransaktionssteuer bewusst sein – und sie nicht ohne Beteiligung der weltweit führenden Finanzplätze einführen. Eine internationale Einigung auf strengere Eigenkapitalvorschriften für Banken muss Vorrang haben.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis and great recession, many countries face substantial deficits and growing debts. In the United States, federal government outlays as a ratio to GDP rose substantially from about 19.5 percent before the crisis to over 24 percent after the crisis. In this paper we consider a fiscal consolidation strategy that brings the budget to balance by gradually reducing this spending ratio over time to the level that prevailed prior to the crisis. A crucial issue is the impact of such a consolidation strategy on the economy. We use structural macroeconomic models to estimate this impact. We consider two types of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models: a neoclassical growth model and more complicated models with price and wage rigidities and adjustment costs. We separate out the impact of reductions in government purchases and transfers, and we allow for a reduction in both distortionary taxes and government debt relative to the baseline of no consolidation. According to the initial model simulations GDP rises in the short run upon announcement and implementation of this fiscal consolidation strategy and remains higher than the baseline in the long run.
Notenbanken haben heute nicht die Aufgabe die Geldmenge zu kontrollieren. Ihr Job ist es, den Wert des Geldes – und damit den Preis der Wirtschaftsgüter in der jeweiligen Währung – zu stabilisieren. Doch wie ist diese Preisstabilität am besten herzustellen? Muß man dabei nicht doch die Geldmenge im Auge behalten? Unter monetären Ökonomen gibt es dazu eine wissenschaftliche Debatte.
This note reviews the legal issues and concerns that are likely to play an important role in the ongoing deliberations of the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany concerning the legality of ECB government bond purchases such as those conducted in the context of its earlier Securities Market Programme or potential future Outright Monetary Transactions.
For some time now, structural macroeconomic models used at central banks have been predominantly New Keynesian DSGE models featuring nominal rigidities and forwardlooking decision-making. While these features are widely deemed crucial for policy evaluation exercises, most central banks have added more detailed characterizations of the financial sector to these models following the Great Recession in order to improve their fit to the data and their forecasting performance. We employ a comparative approach to investigate the characteristics of this new generation of New Keynesian DSGE models and document an elevated degree of model uncertainty relative to earlier model generations. Policy transmission is highly heterogeneous across types of financial frictions and monetary policy causes larger effects, on average. The New Keynesian DSGE models we analyze suggest that a simple policy rule robust to model uncertainty involves a weaker response to inflation and the output gap in the presence of financial frictions as compared to earlier generations of such models. Leaning-against-the-wind policies in models of this class estimated for the Euro Area do not lead to substantial gains. With regard to forecasting performance, the inclusion of financial frictions can generate improvements, if conditioned on appropriate data. Looking forward, we argue that model-averaging and embracing alternative modelling paradigms is likely to yield a more robust framework for the conduct of monetary policy.
Das Working Paper bietet die zusammenfassende Stellungnahme von Prof. Volker Wieland zum Ankaufprogramm der Europäischen Zentralbank für Anleihen des öffentlichen Sektors (Public Sector Purchase Programme, PSPP) am Bundesverfassungsgericht am 30.07.2019. Dabei liegt der Schwerpunkt auf der Frage der Einordnung des PSPP als monetäre, geldpolitische Maßnahme und der Verhältnismäßigkeit des Programms und seiner Umsetzung. Ebenfalls wird kurz auf die weiteren Fragen zur Umsetzung, insbesondere Ankündigung, Begrenzung und Abstand zum Primärmarkt für Staatsanleihen eingegangen.
There is substantial disagreement about the consequences of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, which constitutes the most extensive tax reform in the United States in more than 30 years. Using a large-scale two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities, we find that the TCJA increases GDP by about 2% in the medium-run and by about 2.5% in the long-run. The shortrun impact depends crucially on the degree and costs of variable capital utilization, with GDP effects ranging from 1 to 3%. At the same time, the TCJA does not pay for itself. In our analysis, the reform decreases tax revenues and raises the debt-to-GDP ratio by about 15 percentage points in the medium-run until 2025. We show that combining the TCJA with spending cuts can dampen the increase in government indebtedness without reducing its expansionary effect.
The ruling of the German Federal Constitutional Court and its call for conducting and communicating proportionality assessments regarding monetary policy have been the subject of some controversy. However, it can also be understood as a way to strengthen the de-facto independence of the European Central Bank. The authors shows how a regular proportionality check could be integrated in the ECB’s strategy that is currently undergoing a systematic review. In particular, they propose to include quantitative benchmarks for policy rates and the central bank balance sheet. Deviations from such benchmarks can have benefits in terms of the intended path for inflation while involving costs in terms of risks and side effects that need to be balanced. Practical applications to the euro area are provided
Since 2014 the ECB has implemented a massive expansion of monetary policy including large-scale asset purchases and negative policy rates. As the euro area economy has improved and inflation has risen, questions concerning the future normalization of monetary policy are starting to dominate the public debate.
The study argues that the ECB should develop a strategy for policy normalization and communicate it very soon to prepare the ground for subsequent steps towards tightening. It provides analysis and makes proposals concerning key aspects of this strategy. The aim is to facilitate the emergence of expectations among market participants that are consistent with a smooth process of policy normalization.
Recently there has been an explosion of research on whether the equilibrium real interest rate has declined, an issue with significant implications for monetary policy. A common finding is that the rate has declined. In this paper we provide evidence that contradicts this finding. We show that the perceived decline may well be due to shifts in regulatory policy and monetary policy that have been omitted from the research. In developing the monetary policy implications, it is promising that much of the research approaches the policy problem through the framework of monetary policy rules, as uncertainty in the equilibrium real rate is not a reason to abandon rules in favor of discretion. But the results are still inconclusive and too uncertain to incorporate into policy rules in the ways that have been suggested.
This paper summarizes key elements of the German Federal Constitutional Court’s decision on the European Central Bank’s Public Sector Asset Purchase Programme. It briefly explains how it is possible for the German Court to disagree with the ruling of the Court of Justice of the European Union. Finally, it makes suggestions concerning a practical way forward for the Governing Council of the ECB in light of these developments.
The recent decline in euro area inflation has triggered new calls for additional monetary stimulus by the ECB in order to counter the threat of a self‐reinforcing deflation and recession spiral. This note reviews the available evidence on inflation expectations, output gaps and other factors driving current inflation through the lens of the Phillips curve. It also draws a comparison to the Japanese experience with deflation in the late 1990s and the evidence from Japan concerning the outputinflation nexus at low trend inflation. The note concludes from this evidence that the risk of a selfreinforcing deflation remains very small. Thus, the ECB best await the impact of the long‐term refinancing operations decided in June that have the potential to induce substantial monetary accommodation once implemented for the first time in September.
The purpose of the data presented in this article is to use it in ex post estimations of interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB), as it is done by Bletzinger and Wieland (2017) [1]. The data is of quarterly frequency from 1999 Q1 until 2013 Q2 and consists of the ECB's policy rate, inflation rate, real output growth and potential output growth in the euro area. To account for forward-looking decision making in the interest rate rule, the data consists of expectations about future inflation and output dynamics. While potential output is constructed based on data from the European Commission's annual macro-economic database, inflation and real output growth are taken from two different sources both provided by the ECB: the Survey of Professional Forecasters and projections made by ECB staff. Careful attention was given to the publication date of the collected data to ensure a real-time dataset only consisting of information which was available to the decision makers at the time of the decision.
Methodik
(2002)
Die vegetationskundliche und strukturelle Zuordnung der Lebensraumtypen erfolgt nach der vorrangig von Braun-Blanquet entwickelten Vegetationsklassifizierung, einer hierarchischen Gliederung der Vegetationstypen (Syntaxonomie), die die Ebenen der Assoziation, des Verbandes, der Ordnung und der Klasse umfasst. Hierbei ist die Assoziation die grundlegende Einheit, in der die Pflanzengesellschaften zusammengefasst werden, die sich durch gleiche charakteristische Arten(gruppen)kombinationen auszeichnen. Der Verband vereinigt ähnliche Assoziationen. Das sind bereits umfassendere, jedoch standörtlich noch recht einheitliche Vegetationseinheiten. In Ordnungen werden ähnliche Verbände zusammengefasst. Die Klasse vereinigt ähnliche Ordnungen.
Die Zusammenstellung der Liste der charakteristischen Tierarten erfolgte analog der vom LAU (2002) geschilderten Vorgehensweise. Inzwischen konnten durch die vom LAU in den FFH-LRT Sachsen-Anhalts durchgeführten intensiven faunistischen Untersuchungen ein besseres Bild der charakteristischen und regional typischen Artengemeinschaften vermittelt werden. Allerdings stehen für einige der neu aufgenommenen FFH-LRT solche Untersuchungen noch aus. Deshalb werden hier in naher Zukunft verstärkte Anstrengungen nötig sein, die Wissenslücken zu schließen.
Schätzwerte mittelfristiger Gleichgewichtszinsen mit der Methode nach Laubach und Williams (2003) werden inzwischen vielfach in der Diskussion um die Geld- und Fiskalpolitik zitiert. Unter anderem wurden sie von Summers (2014a) als Evidenz für eine säkulare Stagnation angeführt und von Yellen (2015) zur Rechtfertigung der Nullzinspolitik verwendet. In diesem Papier nehmen wir eine umfangreiche Untersuchung und Sensitivitätsanalyse dieser Schätzwerte für die Vereinigten Staaten, Deutschland und den Euro-Raum vor. Aufgrund der hohen Unsicherheit und Sensitivität, die mit den Schätzwerten mittelfristiger Gleichgewichtszinsen mit der Laubach-Williams-Methode und ähnlichen Ansätzen verbunden ist, sollten diese Schätzungen nicht den Ausschlag für entscheidende Weichenstellungen in der Geld- und Fiskalpolitik geben.
The currrent debate on monetary and fiscal policy is heavily influenced by estimates of the equilibrium real interest rate. Beyer and Wieland re-estimate the U.S. equilibrium rate with the methodology of Laubach and Williams and further modifications. They provide new estimates for the United States, the euro area and Germany and subject them to sensitivity tests. Beyer and Wieland conclude that due to the great uncertainty and sensitivity, the observed decline in the estimates is not a reliable indicator of a need for expansionary monetary and fiscal policy. Yet, if those estimates are employed to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance, such estimates are better used together with the consistent estimate of the level of potential output.
Dem Druck standhalten
(2013)
Stellungnahme zum Antrag der SPD-Fraktion auf Einführung einer Finanztransaktionssteuer in Europa
(2011)
Die Finanztransaktionssteuer ist kein geeignetes Instrument zur Verringerung systemischer Risiken, noch ein Mittel zur Vorbeugung einer Finanzkrise. Da sie zudem nur in Deutschland, Frankreich und einzelnen anderen Staaten eingeführt würde, wäre das Steueraufkommen, aufgrund von Steuerumgehung durch Verlagerung von Finanztransaktionen ins Ausland, gering.
A number of contributions to research on monetary policy have suggested that policy should be asymmetric near the lower bound on nominal interest rates. As inflation and economic activity decline, policy should ease more aggressively than it would in the absence of the lower bound. As activity recovers and inflation picks up, the central bank should act to keep interest rates lower for longer than without the bound. In this note, we investigate to what extent the policy easing implemented by the ECB since summer 2013 mirrors the rate recommendations of a simple policy rule or deviates from it in a way that indicates a “lower for longer” approach to policy near zero interest rates.
On July 4, 2013 the ECB Governing Council provided more specific forward guidance than in the past by stating that it expects ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. As explained by ECB President Mario Draghi this expectation is based on the Council’s medium-term outlook for inflation conditional on economic activity and money and credit. Draghi also stressed that there is no precise deadline for this extended period of time, but that a reasonable period can be estimated by extracting a reaction function. In this note, we use such a reaction function, namely the interest rate rule from Orphanides and Wieland (2013) that matches past ECB interest rate decisions quite well, to project the rate path consistent with inflation and growth forecasts from the survey of professional forecasters published by the ECB on August 8, 2013. This evaluation suggests an increase in ECB interest rates by May 2014 at the latest. We also use the Eurosystem staff projection from June 6, 2013 for comparison. While it would imply a longer period of low rates, it does not match past ECB decisions as well as the reaction function with SPF forecasts.
The debate on monetary and fiscal policy is heavily influenced by estimates of the equilibrium real interest rate. In particular, this concerns estimates derived from a simple aggregate demand and Phillips curve model with time-varying components as proposed by Laubach and Williams (2003). For example, Summers (2014a) refers to these estimates as important evidence for a secular stagnation and the need for fiscal stimulus. Yellen (2015, 2017) has made use of such estimates in order to explain and justify why the Federal Reserve has held interest rates so low for so long. First, we re-estimate the United States equilibrium rate with the methodology of Laubach and Williams (2003). Then, we build on their approach and an alternative specification to provide new estimates for the United States, Germany, the euro area and Japan. Third, we subject these estimates to a battery of sensitivity tests. Due to the great uncertainty and sensitivity that accompany these equilibrium rate estimates, the observed decline in the estimates is not a reliable indicator of a need for expansionary monetary and fiscal policy. Yet, if these estimates are employed to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance, such estimates are better used together with the consistent estimate of the level of potential output.
The nucleosynthesis of elements beyond iron is dominated by neutron captures in the s and r processes. However, 32 stable, proton-rich isotopes cannot be formed during those processes, because they are shielded from the s-process flow and r-process β-decay chains. These nuclei are attributed to the p and rp process.
For all those processes, current research in nuclear astrophysics addresses the need for more precise reaction data involving radioactive isotopes. Depending on the particular reaction, direct or inverse kinematics, forward or time-reversed direction are investigated to determine or at least to constrain the desired reaction cross sections.
The Facility for Antiproton and Ion Research (FAIR) will offer unique, unprecedented opportunities to investigate many of the important reactions. The high yield of radioactive isotopes, even far away from the valley of stability, allows the investigation of isotopes involved in processes as exotic as the r or rp processes.
In Deutschland wird intensiv über die Gefahr einer Deindustrialisierung diskutiert. Steigende Energie- und Arbeitskosten auf international höchstem Niveau, hohe Steuerbelastungen, eine überbordende Regulierung sowie Defizite bei analoger und digitaler Infrastruktur lassen befürchten, dass der Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland ins Hintertreffen gerät. Viele Unternehmen, insbesondere der energieintensiven Industrie, warnen vor einem Verlust an internationaler Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und erwägen oder vollziehen bereits Produktionsverlagerungen an günstigere Standorte im Ausland.
Vor diesem Hintergrund untersucht der Kronberger Kreis, wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Stiftung Marktwirtschaft, was zu tun und was zu unterlassen ist, um die wirtschaftlichen Standortbedingungen in Deutschland wieder zu verbessern. Dabei werden aktuell in der Diskussion stehende wirtschaftspolitische Konzepte wie die „Transformative Angebotspolitik“, der „Industriestrompreis“, das „Wachstumschancengesetz“ oder die Subventionierungen von Chip- und Halbleiterfabriken analysiert. Darüber hinaus unterbreitet der Kronberger Kreis eigene Reformempfehlungen für eine angebotsorientierte Wirtschaftspolitik, mit denen die Bundesregierung bestehende und neue Herausforderungen besser bewältigen könnte.
The Federal Reserve has been publishing federal funds rate prescriptions from Taylor rules in its Monetary Policy Report since 2017. The signals from the rules aligned with Fed action on many occasions, but in some cases the Fed opted for a different route. This paper reviews the implications of the rules during the coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent inflation surge and derives projections for the future.
In 2020, the Fed took the negative prescribed rates, which were far below the effective lower bound on the nominal interest rate, as support for extensive and long-lasting quantitative easing. Yet, the calculations overstate the extent of the constraint, because they neglect the supply side effects of the pandemic.
The paper proposes a simple model-based adjustment to the resource gap used by the rules for 2020. In 2021, the rules clearly signaled the need for tightening because of the rise of inflation, yet the Fed waited until spring 2022 to raise the federal funds rate. With the decline of inflation over the course of 2023, the rules’ prescriptions have also come down. They fall below the actual federal funds rate target range in 2024. Several caveats concerning the projections of the interest rate prescriptions are discussed.