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The Federal Reserve has been publishing federal funds rate prescriptions from Taylor rules in its Monetary Policy Report since 2017. The signals from the rules aligned with Fed action on many occasions, but in some cases the Fed opted for a different route. This paper reviews the implications of the rules during the coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent inflation surge and derives projections for the future.
In 2020, the Fed took the negative prescribed rates, which were far below the effective lower bound on the nominal interest rate, as support for extensive and long-lasting quantitative easing. Yet, the calculations overstate the extent of the constraint, because they neglect the supply side effects of the pandemic.
The paper proposes a simple model-based adjustment to the resource gap used by the rules for 2020. In 2021, the rules clearly signaled the need for tightening because of the rise of inflation, yet the Fed waited until spring 2022 to raise the federal funds rate. With the decline of inflation over the course of 2023, the rules’ prescriptions have also come down. They fall below the actual federal funds rate target range in 2024. Several caveats concerning the projections of the interest rate prescriptions are discussed.
In Deutschland wird intensiv über die Gefahr einer Deindustrialisierung diskutiert. Steigende Energie- und Arbeitskosten auf international höchstem Niveau, hohe Steuerbelastungen, eine überbordende Regulierung sowie Defizite bei analoger und digitaler Infrastruktur lassen befürchten, dass der Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland ins Hintertreffen gerät. Viele Unternehmen, insbesondere der energieintensiven Industrie, warnen vor einem Verlust an internationaler Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und erwägen oder vollziehen bereits Produktionsverlagerungen an günstigere Standorte im Ausland.
Vor diesem Hintergrund untersucht der Kronberger Kreis, wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Stiftung Marktwirtschaft, was zu tun und was zu unterlassen ist, um die wirtschaftlichen Standortbedingungen in Deutschland wieder zu verbessern. Dabei werden aktuell in der Diskussion stehende wirtschaftspolitische Konzepte wie die „Transformative Angebotspolitik“, der „Industriestrompreis“, das „Wachstumschancengesetz“ oder die Subventionierungen von Chip- und Halbleiterfabriken analysiert. Darüber hinaus unterbreitet der Kronberger Kreis eigene Reformempfehlungen für eine angebotsorientierte Wirtschaftspolitik, mit denen die Bundesregierung bestehende und neue Herausforderungen besser bewältigen könnte.
The nucleosynthesis of elements beyond iron is dominated by neutron captures in the s and r processes. However, 32 stable, proton-rich isotopes cannot be formed during those processes, because they are shielded from the s-process flow and r-process β-decay chains. These nuclei are attributed to the p and rp process.
For all those processes, current research in nuclear astrophysics addresses the need for more precise reaction data involving radioactive isotopes. Depending on the particular reaction, direct or inverse kinematics, forward or time-reversed direction are investigated to determine or at least to constrain the desired reaction cross sections.
The Facility for Antiproton and Ion Research (FAIR) will offer unique, unprecedented opportunities to investigate many of the important reactions. The high yield of radioactive isotopes, even far away from the valley of stability, allows the investigation of isotopes involved in processes as exotic as the r or rp processes.