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To prepare for an impending event of unknown temporal distribution, humans internally increase the perceived probability of event onset as time elapses. This effect is termed the hazard rate of events. We tested how the neural encoding of hazard rate changes by providing human participants with prior information on temporal event probability. We recorded behavioral and electroencephalographic (EEG) data while participants listened to continuously repeating five-tone sequences, composed of four standard tones followed by a non-target deviant tone, delivered at slow (1.6 Hz) or fast (4 Hz) rates. The task was to detect a rare target tone, which equiprobably appeared at either position two, three or four of the repeating sequence. In this design, potential target position acts as a proxy for elapsed time. For participants uninformed about the target’s distribution, elapsed time to uncertain target onset increased response speed, displaying a significant hazard rate effect at both slow and fast stimulus rates. However, only in fast sequences did prior information about the target’s temporal distribution interact with elapsed time, suppressing the hazard rate. Importantly, in the fast, uninformed condition pre-stimulus power synchronization in the beta band (Beta 1, 15–19 Hz) predicted the hazard rate of response times. Prior information suppressed pre-stimulus power synchronization in the same band, while still significantly predicting response times. We conclude that Beta 1 power does not simply encode the hazard rate, but—more generally—internal estimates of temporal event probability based upon contextual information.
While prediction errors (PE) have been established to drive learning through adaptation of internal models, the role of model-compliant events in predictive processing is less clear. Checkpoints (CP) were recently introduced as points in time where expected sensory input resolved ambiguity regarding the validity of the internal model. Conceivably, these events serve as on-line reference points for model evaluation, particularly in uncertain contexts. Evidence from fMRI has shown functional similarities of CP and PE to be independent of event-related surprise, raising the important question of how these event classes relate to one another. Consequently, the aim of the present study was to characterise the functional relationship of checkpoints and prediction errors in a serial pattern detection task using electroencephalography (EEG). Specifically, we first hypothesised a joint P3b component of both event classes to index recourse to the internal model (compared to non-informative standards, STD). Second, we assumed the mismatch signal of PE to be reflected in an N400 component when compared to CP. Event-related findings supported these hypotheses. We suggest that while model adaptation is instigated by prediction errors, checkpoints are similarly used for model evaluation. Intriguingly, behavioural subgroup analyses showed that the exploitation of potentially informative reference points may depend on initial cue learning: Strict reliance on cue-based predictions may result in less attentive processing of these reference points, thus impeding upregulation of response gain that would prompt flexible model adaptation. Overall, present results highlight the role of checkpoints as model-compliant, informative reference points and stimulate important research questions about their processing as function of learning und uncertainty.