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Previous research has demonstrated the efficacy of psychological interventions to foster resilience. However, little is known about whether the cultural context in which resilience interventions are implemented affects their efficacy on mental health. Studies performed in Western (k = 175) and Eastern countries (k = 46) regarding different aspects of interventions (setting, mode of delivery, target population, underlying theoretical approach, duration, control group design) and their efficacy on resilience, anxiety, depressive symptoms, quality of life, perceived stress, and social support were compared. Interventions in Eastern countries were longer in duration and tended to be more often conducted in group settings with a focus on family caregivers. We found evidence for larger effect sizes of resilience interventions in Eastern countries for improving resilience (standardized mean difference [SMD] = 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.28 to 0.67; p < 0.0001; 43 studies; 6248 participants; I2 = 97.4%). Intercultural differences should receive more attention in resilience intervention research. Future studies could directly compare interventions in different cultural contexts to explain possible underlying causes for differences in their efficacy on mental health outcomes.
Bei der Bekleidungsmodellierung geht es um den Entwurf von Bekleidung von Personen, die beispielsweise in Szenen dargestellt werden können. Dabei stützt sich der Entwurf auf Informationen aus einer Datengrundlage. Die Darstellung von Szenen, in denen Personen dargestellt werden, stellt sich grundsätzlich als Zusammenspiel komplexer Teilaspekte dar. Dabei wird die Nachvollziehbarkeit einer modellierten Szene oder modellierter Avatare im Auge des Betrachters ganz wesentlich durch den Faktor passend gewählter Kleidung bestimmt.
In dieser Arbeit werden Ansätze und Verfahren vorgestellt, die zur Bekleidungsmodellierung auf Grundlage von Textdokumenten basieren. Dafür werden Möglichkeiten erörtert, die es erlauben Informationen aus Texten zu extrahieren und für die Modellierung einzusetzen.
Zur Bearbeitung der Aufgabenstellung wird zunächst ein aus dem Machine Learning bekanntes kontextuelles Modell hinsichtlich einer Mehrklassen-Klassifizierung trainiert und angewendet. Daraufhin wird die Erstellung einer eigenen Wissensressource, die sich auf textlicher Ebene mit dem Thema der Bekleidung auseinandersetzt, aufgebaut und mit zahlreichen Informationen aus bereits bestehenden Ressourcen popularisiert. Die neue Ressource wird in Form einer Graphdatenbank entworfen. Dabei werden Relationen zwischen den einzelnen Elementen mithilfe von statischen Modellen sowie einem kontextuellen Modell, dem BERT-Modell, erstellt. Schließlich wird auf Grundlage der entwickelten Graphdatenbank ein in der Programmiersprache Python entwickeltes Programm vorgestellt, dass Eingabetexte unter Hinzunahme der Informationen und Relationen innerhalb der Graphdatenbank verarbeitet und Kleidungsstücke detektiert.
Nach der theoretischen Aufarbeitung der entwickelten Ansätze werden die daraus resultierenden Ergebnisse diskutiert und bestehende Problematiken bei der Bearbeitung der Aufgabenstellung angesprochen. Abschließend wird die Arbeit zusammengefasst und Anregungen für die weitere Bearbeitung dieser Thematik vorgestellt.
High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are an important tool for identifying the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and the macroeconomy. However, some recent studies have questioned both the exogeneity and the relevance of these monetary policy surprises as instruments, especially for estimating the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks. For example, monetary policy surprises are correlated with macroeconomic and financial data that is publicly available prior to the FOMC announcement. The authors address these concerns in two ways: First, they expand the set of monetary policy announcements to include speeches by the Fed Chair, which essentially doubles the number and importance of announcements in our dataset. Second, they explain the predictability of the monetary policy surprises in terms of the “Fed response to news” channel of Bauer and Swanson (2021) and account for it by orthogonalizing the surprises with respect to macroeconomic and financial data. Their subsequent reassessment of the effects of monetary policy yields two key results: First, estimates of the high-frequency effects on financial markets are largely unchanged. Second, estimates of the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy are substantially larger and more significant than what most previous empirical studies have found.
The authors study the impact of dissent in the ECB‘s Governing Council on uncertainty surrounding households‘ inflation expectations. They conduct a randomized controlled trial using the Bundesbank Online Panel Households. Participants are provided with alternative information treatments concerning the vote in the Council, e.g. unanimity and dissent, and are asked to submit probabilistic inflation expectations. The results show that the vote is informative.
Households revise their subjective inflation forecast after receiving information about the vote. Dissenting votes cause a wider individual distribution of future inflation. Hence, dissent increases households‘ uncertainty about inflation. This effect is statistically significant once the authors allow for the interaction between the treatments and individual characteristics of respondents.
The results are robust with respect to alternative measures of forecast uncertainty and hold for different model specifications. The findings suggest that providing information about dissenting votes without additional information about the nature of dissent is detrimental to coordinating household expectations.
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine since 24 February 2022 has intensified the discussion of Europe’s reliance on energy imports from Russia. A ban on Russian imports of oil, natural gas and coal has already been imposed by the United States, while the United Kingdom plans to cease imports of oil and coal from Russia by the end of 2022. The German Federal Government is currently opposing an energy embargo against Russia. However, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action is working on a strategy to reduce energy imports from Russia. In this paper, the authors give an overview of the German and European reliance on energy imports from Russia with a focus on gas imports and discuss price effects, alternative suppliers of natural gas, and the potential for saving and replacing natural gas. They also provide an overview of estimates of the consequences on the economic outlook if the conflict intensifies.
In the communication of the European Central Bank (ECB), the statement that „we act within our mandate“ is often referred to. Also among practitioners of the Eurosystem the term „mandate“ has become popular. In his Working Paper, Helmut Siekmann analyzes the legal foundation of the tasks and objectives of the Eurosysstem and price stability as a legal term. He finds that the primary law of the EU only very sparsely employs the term „mandate“. It is never used in the context of monetary policy and its institutions. Moreover, he comes to the conclusion that inflation targeting as a task, competence, or objective of the Eurosystem is legally highly questionable according to the common standards of interpretation.
Central banks have faced a succession of crises over the past years as well as a number of structural factors such as a transition to a greener economy, demographic developments, digitalisation and possibly increased onshoring. These suggest that the future inflation environment will be different from the one we know. Thus uncertainty about important macroeconomic variables and, in particular, inflation dynamics will likely remain high.
Veronika Grimm, Lukas Nöh, and Volker Wieland assess the possible development of government interest expenditures as a share of GDP for Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Until 2021, these and other member states could anticipate a further reduction of interest expenditure in the future. This outlook has changed considerably with the recent surge in inflation and government bond rates. Nevertheless, under reasonable assumptions current yield curves still imply that interest expenditure relative to GDP can be stabilized at the current level. The authors also review the implications of a further upward shift in the yield curves of 1 or 2 percentage points. These implications suggest significant medium-term risks for highly indebted member states with interest expenditure approaching or exceeding levels last observed on the eve of the euro area debt crisis. In light of these risks, governments of euro area member states should take substantive action to achieve a sustained decline in debt-to-GDP ratios towards safer levels. They bear the responsibility for making sure that government finances can weather the higher interest rates which are required to achieve price stability in the euro area.
Gegen den Landeshaushalt 2022 des Freistaats Thüringen bestehen nach Einschätzung von Helmut Siekmann erhebliche verfassungsrechtliche Bedenken. In einem Gutachten kommt Siekmann zu dem Schluss, dass sich die festgestellten globalen Minderausgaben im Vergleich zum gesamten Haushaltsvolumen nicht rechtfertigen lassen. Der verfassungsrechtlich gebotene Haushaltsausgleich sei nur dadurch erzielt worden, dass die eigentlich gebotenen Einzelkürzungen nicht vom Parlament entschieden, sondern der Exekutive überlassen worden seien. Durch Globale Minderausgaben soll der Ausgleich von Einnahmen und Ausgaben erreicht werden, ohne dafür erforderliche und politisch oft schwer durchsetzbare Kürzungen bei Einzeltiteln vornehmen zu müssen.
In Thüringen fehlen der Minderheitskoalition aus Linke, SPD und Grünen im Parlament vier Stimmen für eine eigene Mehrheit. Sie muss damit bei allen Entscheidungen eine Unterstützung der oppositionellen CDU aushandeln. Siekmann weist in seinem Gutachten darauf hin, dass die Veranschlagung von globalen Minderausgaben gleich welcher Art in keinem Fall die Exekutive ermächtigt, bestehende Verpflichtungen nicht zu erfüllen.
The authors propose a new method to forecast macroeconomic variables that combines two existing approaches to mixed-frequency data in DSGE models. The first existing approach estimates the DSGE model in a quarterly frequency and uses higher frequency auxiliary data only for forecasting. The second method transforms a quarterly state space into a monthly frequency. Their algorithm combines the advantages of these two existing approaches.They compare the new method with the existing methods using simulated data and real-world data. With simulated data, the new method outperforms all other methods, including forecasts from the standard quarterly model. With real world data, incorporating auxiliary variables as in their method substantially decreases forecasting errors for recessions, but casting the model in a monthly frequency delivers better forecasts in normal times.