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The Åland Islands archipelago enjoys a special international status sui generis, which essentially encompasses demilitarisation, neutralisation, and autonomy. This status is guaranteed under international law by the agreements of 1921, 1940, and 1947, which are still in force. Furthermore, there are convincing reasons to assume that the Åland Islands regime has grown into European customary law. By virtue of her international (treaty) obligations, Finland cannot unilaterally change this status under the present conditions, irrespective of domestic (constitutional) decisions. While integration into NATO’s collective defence system and the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy structures is compatible with the special status of the Åland Islands, care must be taken by Finland and her partners to ensure that the obligations arising from these developments are fulfilled in accordance with the demilitarised and neutralised status of the archipelago. This includes that the use by Finnish troops for preventive defence, beyond the exceptions laid down in the 1921 Åland Agreement, is only permitted in the case (of threat) of an immediate and clearly identifiable attack.
The autonomous character of the Åland Islands was established under a League of Nations dispute settlement and implemented, inter alia, in Finnish legislation. Its essence even grew into customary law. The arrangements of 1921, however, do not constitute a bilateral treaty between Finland and Sweden. The UN assumes that the international mechanism to protect Åland’s autonomy did not become obsolete with the demise of the League of Nations, but was only “suspended until such time as an express decision has been taken by the United Nations to put it back into force”. A corresponding proposal could be submitted, in any case, both by Finland and/or Sweden or possibly even by any other UN member state, for discussion in the Sixth Committee. However, the final decision to re-activate this special mechanism would have to be adopted by the UN General Assembly.
EU Law applies to the Åland Islands in principle; however, Finland’s Accession Treaty to the EU to which Protocol No. 2 on the Åland Islands was annexed, established a number of specific rules which are still in force today. This, most notably, results in the limited application of value added tax and excise duties in the Åland Islands. Therefore, the rules on customs procedures apply with respect to the movement of goods to and from the Åland Islands. In addition, other provisions of Union law, in particular those relating to fundamental freedoms and European state aid law, may be relevant in view of the special fiscal status of the Åland Islands. However, assessing individual cases would require further information and in-depth studies. Irrespective of the requirements set out in the said Protocol, the EU is obliged to respect the national identity of Member States pursuant to Article 4 para. 2 TEU; this obligation includes respect for the special status of the Åland Islands under both international and Finnish constitutional law.
Eine finalisierte Fassung des Beitrags wird 2024 in einem von Burchard/Schmitt-Leonardy/Singelnstein/Zabel herausgegebenen Sammelband („Alternativen zum Strafrecht“) erscheinen.
Im Zentrum des Beitrags steht jedoch nicht der Versuch, positiv Alternativen zum oder im Strafrecht zu formulieren. Vielmehr ist der Begriff der Alternativlosigkeit erkenntnisleitend, konkret die Identifizierung gesellschaftlich-politischer Wirkmächte und innerstrafrechtlicher Deutungsmuster, die eine (auch) strafrechtliche Bewältigung der durch den menschengemachten Klimawandel aufgeworfenen Konflikte alternativlos erscheinen lassen können.
Dazu wird die jüngst aufgekommene Debatte um ein Klimaschutzstrafrecht aus einer zukunftssoziologischen und strafrechtswissenschaftlichen Perspektive analysiert. Im Zentrum des Beitrags steht die These, dass sich gerade die Verbindung von katastrophischen Zukunftsvorstellungen – hier erschlossen über den zukunftssoziologischen Schlüsselbegriff der Imagination und deskriptiv-analytisch als „Klimakatastrophismus“ bezeichnet – und Exzeptionalisierungen des Strafrechts als Treiber in die imaginative Sackgasse der Alternativlosigkeit erweist.
Die verdichtete Imagination, das die Zukunfts eine Katastrophe sei („Klimakatastrophismus“), befördert als ein an Boden gewinnendes kollektives Deutungsmuster eine intensivierte Sozialkontrolle und Punitivität.
Der kriminalpolitisch expansive Kurs einer mit radikalisierten Selbsterhaltungsfragen konfrontierten Gesellschaft scheint in gesellschaftlich wie dogmatisch tief verankerten Exzeptionalisierungen des Strafrechts – wie der Zuschreibung, (nur) strafwürdige Sozialschädlichkeit adressieren zu dürfen, dies aufgrund einer regulativen und expressiven Ausnahmestellung aber auch in besonderer Weise zu können (oder zu müssen) – durchaus Widerhall zu finden. Dadurch entsteht ein strafrechtsexpansives (weil rechtfertigendes) Momentum, das der ohnehin in der Herausbildung begriffenen Legalisierung eines Klimaschutzstrafrechts Vorschub leistet.
Es entspricht den vornehmen Aufgaben der Strafrechtswissenschaft, diesen Entwicklungen prospektiv vorauszugreifen, sie aufzuklären und kritisch zu wenden – gerade im Hinblick auf die Gegenläufigkeit und Brüchigkeit gesellschaftlicher Entwicklungen oder die Kontingenz eines als politisch gelesenen Strafrechts. Eine kritische Strafrechtswissenschaft darf sich dabei nicht allein, allemal nicht unreflektiert auf tradierte Formen der Strafrechtsbegrenzung zurückziehen.
The Federal Reserve has been publishing federal funds rate prescriptions from Taylor rules in its Monetary Policy Report since 2017. The signals from the rules aligned with Fed action on many occasions, but in some cases the Fed opted for a different route. This paper reviews the implications of the rules during the coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent inflation surge and derives projections for the future.
In 2020, the Fed took the negative prescribed rates, which were far below the effective lower bound on the nominal interest rate, as support for extensive and long-lasting quantitative easing. Yet, the calculations overstate the extent of the constraint, because they neglect the supply side effects of the pandemic.
The paper proposes a simple model-based adjustment to the resource gap used by the rules for 2020. In 2021, the rules clearly signaled the need for tightening because of the rise of inflation, yet the Fed waited until spring 2022 to raise the federal funds rate. With the decline of inflation over the course of 2023, the rules’ prescriptions have also come down. They fall below the actual federal funds rate target range in 2024. Several caveats concerning the projections of the interest rate prescriptions are discussed.
The economic rise of China has changed the global economy. The authors explore China’s transformation from a low-cost manufacturing hub to an increasingly innovation- and service-driven economy. Major growth drivers for the period 2010-2025 are analysed, including the paradigms of “Made in China” and the “Dual Circulation Strategy”. The export intensity of China’s economy is declining overall, with a tendency towards greater regional diversification and a gradual decoupling from North America and the European Union. At the same time, trade and investment activities are increasingly geared to the Belt and Road Initiative. Furthermore, labour and energy cost advantages for manufacturing operations in China are likely to diminish in the coming years, calling into question China’s attractiveness as a global manufacturing hub. In this regard, the further development of regional and industrial clusters is pivotal for China to enhance its global competitiveness and remain an attractive destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) in the medium term. On the other hand, high productivity in science and technology and rich deposits of critical minerals put China in a favourable position in advanced industries. Important challenges include the still wide development gap between rural and urban areas, the structural mismatch in the labour market, with persistently high youth unemployment, and the race to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
Die Lincoln-Siedlung in der Wissenschaftsstadt Darmstadt ist sowohl bundesweites Modellprojekt in Sachen nachhaltiger Mobilität als auch Gegenstand verschiedener Forschungsprojekte. Im Projekt NaMoLi II wird die Zufriedenheit der Bewohnenden in der Lincoln-Siedlung mit dem Mobilitätskonzept und seiner Umsetzung analysiert. Des Weiteren wird geprüft, ob und in welcher Form die vorhandenen Rahmenbedingungen eine nachhaltige Mobilität fördern und wie sich die im Quartier bzw. im Umfeld vorhandenen Angebote der Versorgung und sozialen Infrastruktur auf das Mobilitätsverhalten insbesondere neu Zugezogener auswirken. Hierzu hat eine ausgewählte Bevölkerungsgruppe aus der Lincoln-Siedlung über einen Zeitraum von einer Woche Tagebuchprotokolle ihrer täglichen Mobilität geführt. Teilgenommen haben 14 Haushalte mit insgesamt 28 Personen, die zum Zeitpunkt der Erhebung maximal 15 Monate im Quartier gelebt haben. Die Protokolle wurden von allen Haushaltsangehörigen ab dem Grundschulalter geführt, jüngere Kinder sind in den Tagebüchern der Eltern erfasst. Notiert wurden Wegezwecke und Wegeziele, das genutzte Verkehrsmittel, Start- und Ankunftszeit sowie die (geschätzte) Entfernung. Des Weiteren wurden Kennwerte zur Haushaltsstruktur erhoben, zu geänderten Gewohnheiten nach dem Umzug in die Lincoln-Siedlung sowie nach Problemen in der Alltagsmobilität gefragt. Die Ergebnisse der Mobilitätstagebücher bieten einen interessanten Einblick in den Mobilitätsalltag einer spezifischen Teilnahmegruppe, die ein besonderes Interesse an Mobilitätsthemen gezeigt hat und die sich weitgehend nachhaltig in ihrem Alltag bewegt. Das Fahrrad ist das wichtigste Verkehrsmittel, gefolgt von den eigenen Füßen. Die Mehrzahl der Wegeziele liegt innerhalb eines Radius von bis zu zwei Kilometer. Die multimodalen Angebote im Quartier werden gut genutzt. Es hat sich gezeigt, dass die Methode der Tagebuchprotokolle über einen längeren Zeitraum zielführend ist, um Hinweise für die Alltagstauglichkeit des Mobilitätskonzeptes sowie zu dessen Weiterentwicklung bzw. Nachsteuerung zu erlangen.
We document the individual willingness to act against climate change and study the role of social norms in a large sample of US adults. Individual beliefs about social norms positively predict pro-climate donations, comparable in strength to universal moral values and economic preferences such as patience and reciprocity. However, we document systematic misperceptions of social norms. Respondents vastly underestimate the prevalence of climate-friendly behaviors and norms. Correcting these misperceptions in an experiment causally raises individual willingness to act against climate change as well as individual support for climate policies. The effects are strongest for individuals who are skeptical about the existence and threat of global warming.
Looking beyond ESG preferences: The role of sustainable finance literacy in sustainable investing
(2024)
We assess how sustainable finance literacy affects people’s sustainable investment behavior, using a pre-registered experiment. We find that an increase in sustainable finance literacy leads to a 4 to 5% increase in the probability of investing sustainably. This effect is moderated by sustainability preferences. In the absence of moderate sustainability preferences, any additional increase in sustainable finance literacy is at minimum irrelevant, and we find some evidence that it might even reduce sustainable investments. Our findings underscore the role of knowledge in shaping sustainable investment decisions, highlighting the importance of factors beyond sustainability preferences.
This paper studies whether Eurosystem collateral eligibility played a role in the portfolio choices of euro area asset managers during the “dash-for-cash” episode of 2020. We find that asset managers reduced their allocation to ECB-eligible corporate bonds, selling them in order to finance redemptions, while simultaneously increasing their cash holdings. These findings add nuance to previous studies of liquidity strains and price dislocations in the corporate bond market during the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, indicating a greater willingness of dealers to increase their inventories of corporate bonds pledgeable with the ECB. Analysing the price impact of these portfolio choices, we also find evidence pointing to price pressure for both ECB-eligible and ineligible corporate bonds. Bonds that were held to a larger extent by investment funds in our sample experienced higher price pressure, although the impact was lower for ECB-eligible bonds. We also discuss broader implications for the related policy debate about how central banks could mitigate similar types of liquidity shocks.
Diese Forschungsarbeit analysiert die Rolle des Superblock-Konzepts in neoliberalen Stadtpolitiken am Beispiel der Stadt Offenbach am Main. Die Stadt, einst von industrieller Bedeutung, kämpft seit dem Ende des Fordismus mit finanziellen Schwierigkeiten, die zu einer restriktiven Austeritätspolitik geführt haben. Auf der Suche nach einer positiven Imageveränderung und im Wettbewerb um einkommensstarke Bevölkerungsschichten und Unternehmen initiierte Offenbach verschiedene Strategiepapiere und neue Stadtentwicklungsprojekte. Die Idee, den Offenbacher Stadtteil Nordend im Stile eines Superblocks umzugestalten, wird seit kurzem von verschiedenen Akteur*innen in der Stadt diskutiert. Bei Superblocks handelt es sich um eine grundlegende Transformation des Straßenraumes durch die Neugestaltung des Verkehrs in kleinteilige Abschnitte. Der motorisierte Individualverkehr wird umgeleitet und Freiflächen für die kollektive Nutzung entstehen. Die Forschungsarbeit basiert auf sechs qualitativen Expert*innen-Interviews mit verschiedenen Akteur*innen aus Offenbach. Durch die Interviews konnten die Einschätzungen der Expert*innen zum Superblock-Konzept sowie dessen Verhältnis zur Stadtentwicklungspolitik Offenbachs analysiert werden. Sie betonen die grundsätzliche Eignung des Nordends für die Implementierung des Superblock-Konzepts. Als Instrument der Mobilitätswende könnten Superblocks den öffentlichen Raum transformieren, die Lebensqualität steigern und speziell den im Nordend lebenden einkommensschwachen Haushalten zugutekommen. Dennoch zeigt sich in den Interviews eine Ambivalenz zum Superblock-Konzept im Kontext der Stadtentwicklungspolitik, insbesondere im Hinblick auf finanzielle Herausforderungen und Probleme der Umsetzung. Deutlich wird die prekäre finanzielle Situation Offenbachs im Kontext der Neoliberalisierung des Städtischen, deren Auswirkungen sich an den Aushandlungen über das Konzept der Superblocks exemplarisch äußert. Die Studie zeigt die Widersprüchlichkeiten eines innovativen Mobilitätskonzeptes innerhalb neoliberaler Stadtpolitiken auf und fragt nach dem Zusammenhang von Mobilitätsforschung und kritischer Stadtforschung.
Despite a number of helpful changes, including the adoption of an inflation target, the Fed’s monetary policy strategy proved insufficiently resilient in recent years. While the Fed eased policy appropriately during the pandemic, it fell behind the curve during the post-pandemic recovery. During 2021, the Fed kept easing policy while the inflation outlook was deteriorating and the economy was growing considerably faster than the economy’s natural growth rate—the sum of the Fed’s 2% inflation goal and the growth rate of potential output.
The resilience of the Fed’s monetary policy strategy could be enhanced, and such errors be avoided with guidance from a simple natural growth targeting rule that prescribes that the federal funds rate during each quarter be raised (cut) when projected nominal income growth exceeds (falls short) of the economy’s natural growth rate. An illustration with real-time data and forecasts since the early 1990s shows that Fed policy has not persistently deviated from this simple rule with the notable exception of the period coinciding with the Fed’s post-pandemic policy error.
What are the aggregate and distributional consequences of the relationship be-tween an individual’s social network and financial decisions? Motivated by several well-documented facts about the influence of social connections on financial decisions, we build and calibrate a model of stock market participation with a social network that emphasizes the interplay between connectivity and network structure. Since connections to informed agents help spread information, there is a pivotal role for factors that determine sorting among agents. An increase in the average number of connections raises the average participation rate, mostly due to richer agents. A higher degree of sorting benefits richer agents by creating clusters where information spreads more efficiently. We show empirical evidence consistent with the importance of connectivity and sorting. We discuss several new avenues for future research into the aggregate impact of peer effects in finance.
Central banks sowing the seeds for a green financial sector? NGFS membership and market reactions
(2024)
In December 2017, during the One Planet Summit in Paris, a group of eight central banks and supervisory authorities launched the “Network for Greening the Financial Sector” (NGFS) to address challenges and risks posed by climate change to the global financial system. Until 06/2023 an additional 69 central banks from all around the world have joined the network. We find that the propensity to join the network can be described as a function in the country’s economic development (e.g., GDP per capita), national institutions (e.g., central bank independence), and performance of the central bank on its mandates (e.g., price stability and output gap). Using an event study design to examine consequences of network expansions in capital markets, we document that a difference portfolio that is long in clean energy stocks and short in fossil fuel stocks benefits from an enlargement of the NGFS. Overall, our results suggest that an increasing number of central banks and supervisory authorities are concerned about climate change and willing to go beyond their traditional objectives, and that the capital market believes they will do so.
In this study, we unpack the ESG ratings of four prominent agencies in Europe and find that (i) each single E, S, G pillar explains the overall ESG score differently,(ii) there is a low co-movement between the three E, S, G pillars and (iii) there are specific ESG Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) that are driving these ratings more than others. We argue that such discrepancies might mislead firms about their actual ESG status, potentially leading to cherry-picking areas for improvement, thus raising questions about the accuracy and effectiveness of ESG evaluations in both explaining sustainability and driving capital toward sustainable companies.
We create an alternative version of the present utility value formula to explicitly show that every store-of-value in the economy bears utility-interest (non-pecuniary income) for ist holder regardless of possible interest earnings from financial markets. In addition, we generalize the well-known welfare measures of consumer and producer surplus as present value concepts and apply them not only for the production and usage of consumer goods and durables but also for money and other financial assets. This helps us, inter alia, to formalize the circumstances under which even a producer of legal tender might become insolvent. We also develop a new measure of seigniorage and demonstrate why the well-established concept of monetary seigniorage is flawed. Our framework also allows us to formulate the conditions for liability-issued money such as inside money and financial instruments such as debt certificates to become – somewhat paradoxically – net wealth of the society.
In times of crisis, insurance companies may invest into riskier assets to benefit from expected price recoveries. Using daily stock market data for 34 European insurers, I investigate how a stock market contraction, as experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic, affects insurers’ decision on the allocation of their corporate bond portfolio. I find that insurers shift their portfolio holdings pro-cyclically towards lower credit risk assets in the first month of the market contraction. As the crisis progresses, I find evidence for counter-cyclical investment behavior by insurers, which can neither be explained by credit rating downgrades of held bonds nor by hedging with CDS derivatives. The observed counter-cyclical investment behavior of insurers could be beneficial for the financial system in attenuating price declines, but excessive risk-taking by insurance companies over longer periods can also reinforce stress in the system.
The development of China’s exports – is there a decoupling from the EU and the United States?
(2024)
Some observers warn that a high level of economic dependence on China could negatively affect the economic resilience of Western economies and therefore recommend reducing such dependence by gradually decoupling from China. On the other hand, industry leaders emphasise the economic importance of China and warn against any kind of trade conflicts.
Against this background, we briefly analyse the development of China’s export strategy. We find that the export intensity of the Chinese economy is diminishing and that exports are becoming more diversified overall. In addition, the relative importance of the United States and the European Union as export markets has been reduced, indicating a gradual decoupling of China from Western economies. Conversely, we find that exports to China have become more important, both for the EU and the United States. Although the figures remain at a non-critical level, Europe’s export activities could be more diversified as well.
Das Ziel der BMBF-finanzierten Forschungsprojekte „Nachhaltige Mobilität in Lincoln 1“ und „Nachhaltige Mobilität in Lincoln 2“ ist es, Erkenntnisse zu Veränderungen im Mobilitätsverhalten von Personen zu erlangen, die in ein autoreduziertes Quartier umziehen. Dazu wurden zwei aufeinander aufbauende Vollbefragungen der erwachsenen Bewohner*innen der autoreduzierten Lincoln-Siedlung in Darmstadt durchgeführt. Im Rahmen der ersten Befragung im Jahr 2020 wurden 1.140, im Rahmen der zweiten Befragungswelle, 2021, 1.614 Fragebögen verteilt. Der Rücklauf belief sich 2020 auf n = 166 (14,6 %), in 2021 auf n = 231 (14,3 %). Der vorliegende Bericht beschreibt das methodische Vorgehen im Rahmen der Befragungen. Hierfür wird auf das besondere Panel-Design der Studie eingegangen. Dieses ermöglicht sowohl Einblicke in den Umzug in die Siedlung, als auch in das Leben in der Siedlung im Verlauf eines Jahres, und die damit einhergehenden Veränderungen im individuelle Mobilitätsverhalten. Der Bericht stellt dazu die zentralen Inhalte des Fragebogens vor und erläutert die Durchführung der Befragungen. In deren Rahmen wurden die Bewohner*innen der Lincoln-Siedlung insgesamt dreimal kontaktiert. Um die Bereitschaft zur Teilnahme zu steigern, wurden im Vorfeld der Erhebungen mittels einer Pressemitteilung auf die Befragung aufmerksam gemacht und Ankündigungsschreiben in die Briefkästen der Bewohner*innen verteilt. Eine Woche nach der eigentlichen Fragebogenverteilung wurden Erinnerungsschreiben verteilt. Ferner geht der Methodenbericht auf den Umgang mit dem Rücklauf sowie auf die Datenaufbereitung und - eingabe ein, bevor die soziodemographischen Daten der Teilnehmer*innen auf ihre Repräsentativität geprüft werden.
This paper contributes a multivariate forecasting comparison between structural models and Machine-Learning-based tools. Specifically, a fully connected feed forward non-linear autoregressive neural network (ANN) is contrasted to a well established dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) using optimized priors as well as Greenbook and SPF forecasts. Model estimation and forecasting is based on an expanding window scheme using quarterly U.S. real-time data (1964Q2:2020Q3) for 8 macroeconomic time series (GDP, inflation, federal funds rate, spread, consumption, investment, wage, hours worked), allowing for up to 8 quarter ahead forecasts. The results show that the BVAR improves forecasts compared to the DSGE model, however there is evidence for an overall improvement of predictions when relying on ANN, or including them in a weighted average. Especially, ANN-based inflation forecasts improve other predictions by up to 50%. These results indicate that nonlinear data-driven ANNs are a useful method when it comes to macroeconomic forecasting.
In recent decades, biodiversity has declined significantly, threatening ecosystem services that are vital to society and the economy. Despite the growing recognition of biodiversity risks, the private sector response remains limited, leaving a significant financing gap. The paper therefore describes market-based solutions to bridge the financing gap, which can follow a risk assessment approach and an impact-oriented perspective. Key obstacles to mobilising private capital for biodiversity conservation are related to pricing biodiversity due to its local dimension, the lack of standardized metrics for valuation and still insufficient data reporting by companies hindering informed investment decisions. Financing biodiversity projects poses another challenge, mainly due to a mismatch between investor needs and available projects, for example in terms of project timeframes and their additionality.
This paper shows that support for climate action is high across survey participants from all EU countries in three dimensions: (1) Participants are willing to contribute personally to combating climate change, (2) they approve of pro-climate social norms, and (3) they demand government action. In addition, there is a significant perception gap where individuals underestimate others' willingness to contribute to climate action by over 10 percentage points, influencing their own willingness to act. Policymakers should recognize the broad support for climate action among European citizens and communicate this effectively to counteract the vocal minority opposed to it.