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Aim: Predicting future changes in species richness in response to climate change is one of the key challenges in biogeography and conservation ecology. Stacked species distribution models (S‐SDMs) are a commonly used tool to predict current and future species richness. Macroecological models (MEMs), regression models with species richness as response variable, are a less computationally intensive alternative to S‐SDMs. Here, we aim to compare the results of two model types (S‐SDMS and MEMs), for the first time for more than 14,000 species across multiple taxa globally, and to trace the uncertainty in future predictions back to the input data and modelling approach used.
Location: Global land, excluding Antarctica.
Taxon: Amphibians, birds and mammals.
Methods: We fitted S‐SDMs and MEMs using a consistent set of bioclimatic variables and model algorithms and conducted species richness predictions under current and future conditions. For the latter, we used four general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Predicted species richness was compared between S‐SDMs and MEMs and for current conditions also to extent‐of‐occurrence (EOO) species richness patterns. For future predictions, we quantified the variance in predicted species richness patterns explained by the choice of model type, model algorithm and GCM using hierarchical cluster analysis and variance partitioning.
Results: Under current conditions, species richness predictions from MEMs and S‐SDMs were strongly correlated with EOO‐based species richness. However, both model types over‐predicted areas with low and under‐predicted areas with high species richness. Outputs from MEMs and S‐SDMs were also highly correlated among each other under current and future conditions. The variance between future predictions was mostly explained by model type.
Main conclusions: Both model types were able to reproduce EOO‐based patterns in global terrestrial vertebrate richness, but produce less collinear predictions of future species richness. Model type by far contributes to most of the variation in the different future species richness predictions, indicating that the two model types should not be used interchangeably. Nevertheless, both model types have their justification, as MEMs can also include species with a restricted range, whereas S‐SDMs are useful for looking at potential species‐specific responses.
Stability of halocarbons in whole air samples from the upper
troposphere and lowermost stratosphere
(2019)
Measurements of halogenated hydrocarbons of ambient air frequently rely on canister sampling followed by offline laboratory analysis. This allows for a large number of compounds to be analysed under stable conditions, maximising measurement precision. However, individual compounds might be affected during storage of canister samples. In order to assess halocarbon stability in whole air samples from the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere, we performed stability tests using the air sampling unit High REsolution Sampler (HIRES) which is part of the CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the Atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) instrument package. HIRES holds 88 light-weight stainless steel cylinders that are pressurized in flight to 4.5 bar using metal bellows pumps. The HIRES sampling unit was first deployed in 2010, but has up to now not been used for regular halocarbon analysis with exception of chloromethane. The sample collection unit was tested for sampling and storage effects of 28 halogenated compounds. The focus was on compound stability in the stainless steel canisters during storage of up to five weeks and on the influence of ozone, since flights take place in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere with ozone mixing ratios of up to several hundred ppbV. Most of the investigated (hydro)chlorofluorocarbons and long-lived hydrofluorocarbons were found to be stable over a storage time of up to five weeks and were unaltered by ozone being present during pressurization. Some compounds such as for example dichloromethane, trichloromethane and tetrachloroethene started to decrease in the canisters after a storage time of more than two weeks or exhibited lowered mixing ratios in samples pressurized with ozone present. Few compounds such as for example tetrachloromethane and tribromomethane were found to be not stable in the HIRES stainless-steel canisters independent of ozone levels. Also growth was observed during storage, namely for HFC-152a and HFC-23.
Micromorphology is a suitable method to study the contents and stratigraphic relationships of pit fills. Within the ramparts of Corneşti-Iarcuri, fill layers of a pit were sampled. Th e pit fill was macroscopically divided into primary and secondary fill due to striking differences. These differences could be verified and concretized micromorphologically.
The frequency of extreme events has changed, having a direct impact on human lives. Regional climate models help us to predict these regional climate changes. This work presents an atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate system model (RCSM; with the atmospheric component COSMO-CLM and the ocean component NEMO) over the European domain, including three marginal seas: the Mediterranean, North, and Baltic Sea. To test the model, we evaluate a simulation of more than 100 years (1900–2009) with a spatial grid resolution of about 25 km. The simulation was nested into a coupled global simulation with the model MPI-ESM in a low-resolution configuration, whose ocean temperature and salinity were nudged to the ocean–ice component of the MPI-ESM forced with the NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR). The evaluation shows the robustness of the RCSM and discusses the added value by the coupled marginal seas over an atmosphere-only simulation. The coupled system is stable for the complete 20th century and provides a better representation of extreme temperatures compared to the atmosphere-only model. The produced long-term dataset will help us to better understand the processes leading to meteorological and climate extremes.
Accretion rates of Holocene tropical coral reefs in three areas in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans have been quantified in 79 dated core sections in 34 reef cores from Belize, the Maldives and French Polynesia. Holocene vertical reef accretion rate averages 5.05 m/kyr and has decreased during the past 10 kyr. Accretion rates in branched and massive coral facies are statistically similar. Reef accretion rate is positively correlated with the rate of sea‐level rise, that is the degree of creation of accommodation space, and with climate as expressed in a Holocene sea surface temperature anomaly. Accommodation space is also created by subsidence, but at a rate one to two orders of magnitude lower than that created by glacio‐eustasy (0.04 to 0.16 m/kyr). Lagoonal background sedimentation in adjacent reef lagoons averages 0.89 m/kyr as measured in 72 dated core sections in 28 cores. Lagoonal carbonate sedimentation on top of underlying mangrove peat usually starts after a considerable hiatus of ca 3 kyr on average. The lagoonal background sedimentation rate increased during the Holocene, probably due to deepening. The differences between vertical reef accretion and lagoonal background sedimentation rates are a major factor in the production of the widely known saucer shapes typical of tropical reefs and carbonate platforms, that is the creation of unfilled accommodation space. Reef core recovery, used as a proxy for reef consolidation, and core depth exhibit a statistically negative correlation based on data from 326 core barrels. Recovery and marine cement abundance (average volume 8.6%) also decrease from windward to leeward core positions. These observations are presumably a result of both a decrease in the rate of sea‐level rise that is the increase in time available for submarine cementation during the Holocene and the amount of flushing of reef interstices by marine waters.
Cenozoic lignite deposits are widespread across Europe, Asia, America, Australia, and Indonesia. These deposits were the subject of numerous studies on changes in regional/global paleoclimates, paleobotany, paleoenvironment, and basin evolutions, which led to the formation of these lignites. In some of these Cenozoic lignite deposit basins, a succession of pale and dark lignite layers has been described in the Miocene Lower Rhine Basin in Germany, the Oligo-Miocene Gippsland Basin in southeastern Australia, and several Mio-Pliocene basins in southwestern China. Furthermore, pale and dark lithotypes in lignite seams also have been found in some Pliocene lignite deposit basins from Slovenia, Serbia, and Poland. The widespread cyclic occurrence of pale and dark layers in lignite basins might represent alternating depositional conditions related to the changes in plant communities, the regional/global climate, the tectonic setting, the Asian monsoon, and orbital periodicity during peat formation. ...
The endemic argan tree (Argania spinosa) populations in South Morocco are highly degraded due to their use as a biomass resource in dry years and illegal firewood extraction. The intensification and expansion of agricultural land lead to a retreat of the wooded area, while the remaining argan open woodlands are often overgrazed. Thus, canopy-covered areas decrease while areas without vegetation cover between the argan trees increase. In total, 36 rainfall simulation experiments as well as 60 infiltration measurements were conducted to investigate the potential difference between tree-covered areas and bare intertree areas. In addition, 60 soil samples were taken under the trees and in the intertree areas parallel to the contour lines. Significant differences using a t-test were found between tree and intertree areas for the studied parameters Ksat, Kh, pH, electric conductivity, percolation stability, total C-content, total N-content, K-content, Na-content, and Mg-content. Surface runoff and soil losses were not as conclusive but showed similar trends. The results showed that argan trees influence the soil underneath significantly, while the soil in intertree areas is less protected and more degraded. It is therefore reasonable to assume further degradation of the soil when intertree areas extend further due to lack of rejuvenation of argan trees.
Invasive plant species are increasingly altering species composition and the functioning of ecosystems from a local to a global scale. The grass species Pennisetum setaceum has recently raised concerns as an invader on different archipelagos worldwide. Among these affected archipelagos are the Canary Islands, which are a hotspot of endemism. Consequently, conservation managers and stakeholders are interested in the potential spreading of this species in the archipelago. We identify the current extent of the suitable habitat for P. setaceum on the island of La Palma to assess how it affects island ecosystems, protected areas (PAs), and endemic plant species richness. We recorded in situ occurrences of P. setaceum from 2010 to 2018 and compiled additional ones from databases at a 500 m × 500 m resolution. To assess the current suitable habitat and possible distribution patterns of P. setaceum on the island, we built an ensemble model. We projected habitat suitability for island ecosystems and PAs and identified risks for total as well as endemic plant species richness. The suitable habitat for P. setaceum is calculated to cover 34.7% of the surface of La Palma. In open ecosystems at low to mid elevations, where native ecosystems are already under pressure by land use and human activities, the spread of the invader will likely lead to additional threats to endemic plant species. Forest ecosystems (e.g., broadleaved evergreen and coniferous forests) are not likely to be affected by the spread of P. setaceum because of its heliophilous nature. Our projection of suitable habitat of P. setaceum within ecosystems and PAs on La Palma supports conservationists and policymakers in prioritizing management and control measures and acts as an example for the potential threat of this graminoid invader on other islands.
Often in climate system studies, linear and symmetric statistical measures are applied to quantify interactions among subsystems or variables. However, they do not allow identification of the driving and responding subsystems. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to apply asymmetric measures from information theory: the axiomatically proposed transfer entropy and the first principle-based information flow to detect and quantify climate interactions. As their estimations are challenging, we initially tested nonparametric estimators like transfer entropy (TE)-binning, TE-kernel, and TE k-nearest neighbor and parametric estimators like TE-linear and information flow (IF)-linear with idealized two-dimensional test cases along with their sensitivity on sample size. Thereafter, we experimentally applied these methods to the Lorenz-96 model and to two real climate phenomena, i.e., (1) the Indo-Pacific Ocean coupling and (2) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)–European air temperature coupling. As expected, the linear estimators work for linear systems but fail for strongly nonlinear systems. The TE-kernel and TE k-nearest neighbor estimators are reliable for linear and nonlinear systems. Nevertheless, the nonparametric methods are sensitive to parameter selection and sample size. Thus, this work proposes a composite use of the TE-kernel and TE k-nearest neighbor estimators along with parameter testing for consistent results. The revealed information exchange in Lorenz-96 is dominated by the slow subsystem component. For real climate phenomena, expected bidirectional information exchange between the Indian and Pacific SSTs was detected. Furthermore, expected information exchange from NAO to European air temperature was detected, but also unexpected reversal information exchange. The latter might hint to a hidden process driving both the NAO and European temperatures. Hence, the limitations, availability of time series length and the system at hand must be taken into account before drawing any conclusions from TE and IF-linear estimations.
Convective shower characteristics simulated with the convection-permitting climate model COSMO-CLM
(2019)
This paper evaluates convective precipitation as simulated by the convection-permitting climate model (CPM) Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling in climate mode (COSMO-CLM) (with 2.8 km grid-spacing) over Germany in the period 2001–2015. Characteristics of simulated convective precipitation objects like lifetime, area, mean intensity, and total precipitation are compared to characteristics observed by weather radar. For this purpose, a tracking algorithm was applied to simulated and observed precipitation with 5-min temporal resolution. The total amount of convective precipitation is well simulated, with a small overestimation of 2%. However, the simulation underestimates convective activity, represented by the number of convective objects, by 33%. This underestimation is especially pronounced in the lowlands of Northern Germany, whereas the simulation matches observations well in the mountainous areas of Southern Germany. The underestimation of activity is compensated by an overestimation of the simulated lifetime of convective objects. The observed mean intensity, maximum intensity, and area of precipitation objects increase with their lifetime showing the spectrum of convective storms ranging from short-living single-cell storms to long-living organized convection like supercells or squall lines. The CPM is capable of reproducing the lifetime dependence of these characteristics but shows a weaker increase in mean intensity with lifetime resulting in an especially pronounced underestimation (up to 25%) of mean precipitation intensity of long-living, extreme events. This limitation of the CPM is not identifiable by classical evaluation techniques using rain gauges. The simulation can reproduce the general increase of the highest percentiles of cell area, total precipitation, and mean intensity with temperature but fails to reproduce the increase of lifetime. The scaling rates of mean intensity and total precipitation resemble observed rates only in parts of the temperature range. The results suggest that the evaluation of coarse-grained (e.g., hourly) precipitation fields is insufficient for revealing challenges in convection-permitting simulations.