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Measuring confidence and uncertainty during the financial crisis : evidence from the CFS survey
(2010)
The CFS survey covers individual situations of banks and other companies of the financial sector during the financial crisis. This provides a rare possibility to analyze appraisals, expectations and forecast errors of the core sector of the recent turmoil. Following standard ways of aggregating individual survey data, we first present and introduce the CFS survey by comparing CFS indicators of confidence and predicted confidence to ifo and ZEW indicators. The major contribution is the analysis of several indicators of uncertainty. In addition to well established concepts, we introduce innovative measures based on the skewness of forecast errors and on the share of ‘no response’ replies. Results show that uncertainty indicators fit quite well with pattern of real and financial time series of the time period 2007 to 2010. Business Sentiment , Financial Crisis , Survey Indicator , Uncertainty
This paper provides theory as well as empirical results for pre-averaging estimators of the daily quadratic variation of asset prices. We derive jump robust inference for pre-averaging estimators, corresponding feasible central limit theorems and an explicit test on serial dependence in microstructure noise. Using transaction data of different stocks traded at the NYSE, we analyze the estimators’ sensitivity to the choice of the pre-averaging bandwidth and suggest an optimal interval length. Moreover, we investigate the dependence of pre-averaging based inference on the sampling scheme, the sampling frequency, microstructure noise properties as well as the occurrence of jumps. As a result of a detailed empirical study we provide guidance for optimal implementation of pre-averaging estimators and discuss potential pitfalls in practice. Quadratic Variation , MarketMicrostructure Noise , Pre-averaging , Sampling Schemes , Jumps
Nucleation experiments starting from the reaction of OH radicals with SO2 have been performed in the IfT-LFT flow tube under atmospheric conditions at 293±0.5 K for a relative humidity of 13–61%. The presence of different additives (H2, CO, 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene) for adjusting the OH radical concentration and resulting OH levels in the range (4–300) ×105 molecule cm -3 did not influence the nucleation process itself. The number of detected particles as well as the threshold H2SO4 concentration needed for nucleation was found to be strongly dependent on the counting efficiency of the used counting devices. High-sensitivity particle counters allowed the measurement of freshly nucleated particles with diameters down to about 1.5 nm. A parameterization of the experimental data was developed using power law equations for H2SO4 and H2O vapour. The exponent for H2SO4 from different measurement series was in the range of 1.7–2.1 being in good agreement with those arising from analysis of nucleation events in the atmosphere. For increasing relative humidity, an increase of the particle number was observed. The exponent for H2O vapour was found to be 3.1 representing an upper limit. Addition of 1.2×1011 molecule cm -3 or 1.2×1012 molecule cm -3 of NH3 (range of atmospheric NH3 peak concentrations) revealed that NH3 has a measureable, promoting effect on the nucleation rate under these conditions. The promoting effect was found to be more pronounced for relatively dry conditions, i.e. a rise of the particle number by 1–2 orders of magnitude at RH = 13% and only by a factor of 2–5 at RH = 47% (NH3 addition: 1.2×1012 molecule cm -3). Using the amine tert-butylamine instead of NH3, the enhancing impact of the base for nucleation and particle growth appears to be stronger. Tert-butylamine addition of about 1010 molecule cm -3 at RH = 13% enhances particle formation by about two orders of magnitude, while for NH3 only a small or negligible effect on nucleation in this range of concentration appeared. This suggests that amines can strongly influence atmospheric H2SO4-H2O nucleation and are probably promising candidates for explaining existing discrepancies between theory and observations.
We report the first measurements of 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane (HFC-227ea), a substitute for ozone depleting compounds, in remote regions of the atmosphere and present evidence for its rapid growth. Observed mixing ratios ranged from below 0.01 ppt in deep firn air to 0.59 ppt in the northern mid-latitudinal upper troposphere. Firn air samples collected in Greenland were used to reconstruct a history of atmospheric abundance. Year-on-year increases were deduced, with acceleration in the growth rate from 0.026 ppt per year in 2000 to 0.057 ppt per year in 2007. Upper tropospheric air samples provide evidence for a continuing growth until late 2009. Fur- thermore we calculated a stratospheric lifetime of 370 years from measurements of air samples collected on board high altitude aircraft and balloons. Emission estimates were determined from the reconstructed atmospheric trend and suggest that current "bottom-up" estimates of global emissions for 2005 are too high by more than a factor of three.
We report the first measurements of 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane (HFC-227ea), a substitute for ozone depleting compounds, in air samples originating from remote regions of the atmosphere and present evidence for its accelerating growth. Observed mixing ratios ranged from below 0.01 ppt in deep firn air to 0.59 ppt in the current northern mid-latitudinal upper troposphere. Firn air samples collected in Greenland were used to reconstruct a history of atmospheric abundance. Year-on-year increases were deduced, with acceleration in the growth rate from 0.029 ppt per year in 2000 to 0.056 ppt per year in 2007. Upper tropospheric air samples provide evidence for a continuing growth until late 2009. Furthermore we calculated a stratospheric lifetime of 370 years from measurements of air samples collected on board high altitude aircraft and balloons. Emission estimates were determined from the reconstructed atmospheric trend and suggest that current "bottom-up" estimates of global emissions for 2005 are too high by a factor of three.
A comprehensive evaluation of seasonal backward trajectories initialized in the northern hemisphere lowermost stratosphere (LMS) has been performed to investigate the factors that determine the temporal and spatial structure of troposphere-to-stratosphere-transport (TST) and it’s impact on the LMS. In particular we explain the fundamental role of the transit time since last TST (tTST) for the chemical composition of the LMS. According to our results the structure of the LMS can be characterized by a layer with tTST<40 days forming a narrow band around the local tropopause. This layer extends about 30K above the local dynamical tropopause, corresponding to the extratropical tropopause transition layer (ExTL) as identified by CO. The LMS beyond this layer shows a relatively well defined separation as marked by an aprupt transition to longer tTST indicating less frequent mixing and a smaller fraction of tropospheric air. Thus the LMS constitutes a region of two well defined regimes of tropospheric influence. These can be characterized mainly by different transport times from the troposphere and different fractions of tropospheric air. Carbon monoxide (CO) mirrors this structure of tTST due to it’s finite lifetime on the order of three months. Water vapour isopleths, on the other hand, do not uniquely indicate TST and are independent of tTST, but are determined by the Lagrangian Cold Point (LCP) of air parcels. Most of the backward trajectories from the LMS experienced their LCP in the tropics and sub-tropics, and TST often occurs 20 days after trajectories have encountered their LCP. Therefore, ExTL properties deduced from CO and H2O provide totally different informations on transport and particular TST for the LMS.
Two different single particle mass spectrometers were operated in parallel at the Swiss High Alpine Research Station Jungfraujoch (JFJ, 3580 m a.s.l.) during the Cloud and Aerosol Characterization Experiment (CLACE 6) in February and March 2007. During mixed phase cloud events ice crystals from 5–20 micro m were separated from larger ice aggregates, non-activated, interstitial aerosol particles and supercooled droplets using an Ice-Counterflow Virtual Impactor (Ice-CVI). During one cloud period supercooled droplets were additionally sampled and analyzed by changing the Ice-CVI setup. The small ice particles and droplets were evaporated by injection into dry air inside the Ice-CVI. The resulting ice and droplet residues (IR and DR) were analyzed for size and composition by the two single particle mass spectrometers: a custom-built Single Particle Laser-Ablation Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (SPLAT) and a commercial Aerosol Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (ATOFMS, TSI Model 3800). During CLACE 6 the SPLAT instrument characterized 355 individual IR that produced a mass spectrum for at least one polarity and the ATOFMS measured 152 IR. The mass spectra were binned in classes, based on the combination of dominating substances, such as mineral dust, sulfate, potassium and elemental carbon or organic material. The derived chemical information from the ice residues is compared to the JFJ ambient aerosol that was sampled while the measurement station was out of clouds (several thousand particles analyzed by SPLAT and ATOFMS) and to the composition of the residues of supercooled cloud droplets (SPLAT: 162 cloud droplet residues analyzed, ATOFMS: 1094). The measurements showed that mineral dust was strongly enhanced in the ice particle residues. Close to all of the SPLAT spectra from ice residues did contain signatures from mineral compounds, albeit connected with varying amounts of soluble compounds. Similarly, close to all of the ATOFMS IR spectra show a mineral or metallic component. Pure sulfate and nitrate containing particles were depleted in the ice residues. Sulfate and nitrate was found to dominate the droplet residues (~90% of the particles). The results from the two different single particle mass spectrometers were generally in agreement. Differences in the results originate from several causes, such as the different wavelength of the desorption and ionisation lasers and different size-dependent particle detection efficiencies.
Background: The integration of the non-cross-resistant chemotherapeutic agents capecitabine and vinorelbine into an intensified dose-dense sequential anthracycline- and taxane-containing regimen in high-risk early breast cancer (EBC) could improve efficacy, but this combination was not examined in this context so far. Methods: Patients with stage II/IIIA EBC (four or more positive lymph nodes) received post-operative intensified dose-dense sequential epirubicin (150mg/m2 every 2 weeks) and paclitaxel (225mg/m2 every 2 weeks) with filgrastim and darbepoetin alfa, followed by capecitabine alone (dose levels 1 and 3) or with vinorelbine (dose levels 2 and 4). Capecitabine was given on days 1-14 every 21 days at 1000 or 1250 mg/m2 twice daily (dose levels 1/2 and 3/4, respectively). Vinorelbine 25 mg/m2 was given on days 1 and 8 of each 21-day course (dose levels 2 and 4). Results: Fifty-one patients were treated. There was one dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) at dose level 1. At dose level 2 (capecitabine and vinorelbine), five of 10 patients experienced DLTs. Therefore evaluation of vinorelbine was abandoned and dose level 3 (capecitabine monotherapy) was expanded. Hand-foot syndrome and diarrhoea were dose limiting with capecitabine 1250 mg/m2 twice daily. At 35.2 months' median follow-up, the estimated 3-year relapse-free and overall survival rates were 82% and 91%, respectively. Administration of capecitabine monotherapy after sequential dose-dense epirubicin and paclitaxel is feasible in node-positive EBC, while the combination of capecitabine and vinorelbine as used here caused more DLTs. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN38983527.
Background: European robins, Erithacus rubecula, show two types of directional responses to the magnetic field: (1) compass orientation that is based on radical pair processes and lateralized in favor of the right eye and (2) so-called 'fixed direction' responses that originate in the magnetite-based receptors in the upper beak. Both responses are light-dependent. Lateralization of the 'fixed direction' responses would suggest an interaction between the two magnetoreception systems. Results: Robins were tested with either the right or the left eye covered or with both eyes uncovered for their orientation under different light conditions. With 502 nm turquoise light, the birds showed normal compass orientation, whereas they displayed an easterly 'fixed direction' response under a combination of 502 nm turquoise with 590 nm yellow light. Monocularly right-eyed birds with their left eye covered were oriented just as they were binocularly as controls: under turquoise in their northerly migratory direction, under turquoise-and-yellow towards east. The response of monocularly left-eyed birds differed: under turquoise light, they were disoriented, reflecting a lateralization of the magnetic compass system in favor of the right eye, whereas they continued to head eastward under turquoise-and-yellow light. Conclusion: 'Fixed direction' responses are not lateralized. Hence the interactions between the magnetite-receptors in the beak and the visual system do not seem to involve the magnetoreception system based on radical pair processes, but rather other, non-lateralized components of the visual system.
Rezension zu: Gaye Suse Kromer: Obszöne Lust oder etablierte Unterhaltung? Zur Rezeption pornografischer Filme. Hamburg: Diplomica Verlag 2008. 232 Seiten, ISBN 978-3-8366-6730-2, € 39,50 Die Autorin befragte vier Männer und vier Frauen zu ihrer Pornografienutzung und ihren Rezeptionserfahrungen mit dem pornografischen Film Adrenalin (Italien 2003). Selbst nach Maßstäben einer Qualifikationsarbeit überzeugen die Überblickskapitel zu Rechtsgrundlagen, Definition und Geschichte des pornografischen Films, zur theoretischen und fachlichen Verortung nicht; diese werden später auch nicht auf die Interviews bezogen. Den Hauptteil stellen die Interviews dar. Der Autorin gelingt es nur teilweise – so bei der Entwicklung der Leitfragen –, stringente Kategorien für die Auswertung der qualitativen Interviews zu entwickeln. Die im Anhang des Buches abgedruckten Interviews stellen eine interessante Quelle für die Erforschung der Rezeption pornografischer Filme dar.