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Tick-borne diseases are a major health problem worldwide and could become even more important in Europe in the future. Due to changing climatic conditions, ticks are assumed to be able to expand their ranges in Europe towards higher latitudes and altitudes, which could result in an increased occurrence of tick-borne diseases.
There is a great interest to identify potential (new) areas of distribution of vector species in order to assess the future infection risk with vector-borne diseases, improve surveillance, to develop more targeted monitoring program, and, if required, control measures.
Based on an ecological niche modelling approach we project the climatic suitability for the three tick species Ixodes ricinus, Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus under current and future climatic conditions in Europe. These common tick species also feed on humans and livestock and are vector competent for a number of pathogens.
For niche modelling, we used a comprehensive occurrence data set based on several databases and publications and six bioclimatic variables in a maximum entropy approach. For projections, we used the most recent IPCC data on current and future climatic conditions including four different scenarios of socio-economic developments.
Our models clearly support the assumption that the three tick species will benefit from climate change with projected range expansions towards north-eastern Europe and wide areas in central Europe with projected potential co-occurrence.
A higher tick biodiversity and locally higher abundances might increase the risk of tick-borne diseases, although other factors such as pathogen prevalence and host abundances are also important.
Highlights
• Three ecological groups were identified based on distributional patterns.
• Old assessments were confirmed with the latest occurrence data.
• For each group, we derived different population trends in times of global change.
• Global change elevates importance of vector-borne diseases.
• Our results serve as base for effective Simuliidae monitoring.
Abstract
The black fly genus Simulium includes medically and ecologically important species, characterized by a wide variation of ecological niches largely determining their distributional patterns. In a rapidly changing environment, species-specific niche characteristics determine whether a species benefits or not. With aquatic egg, larval and pupal stages followed by a terrestrial adult phase, their spatial arrangements depend upon the interplay of aquatic conditions and climatic-landscape parameters in the terrestrial realm. The aim of this study was to enhance the understanding of the distributional patterns among Simulium species and their ecological drivers. In an ecological niche modelling approach, we focused on 12 common black fly species with different ecological requirements. Our modelling was based on available distribution data along with five stream variables describing the climatic, land-cover, and topographic conditions of river catchments. The modelled freshwater habitat suitability was spatially interpolated to derive an estimate of the adult black flies' probability of occurrence. Based on similarities in the spatial patterns of modelled habitat suitability we were able to identify three biogeographical groups, which allows us to confirm old assessments with current occurrence data: (A) montane species, (B) broad range species and (C) lowland species. The five veterinary and human medical relevant species Simulium equinum, S. erythrocephalum, S. lineatum, S. ornatum and S. reptans are mainly classified in the lowland species group. In the course of climatic changes, it is expected that biocoenosis will slightly shift towards upstream regions, so that the lowland group will presumably emerge as the winner. This is mainly explained by wider ecological niches, including a higher temperature tolerance and tolerance to various pollutants. In conclusion, these findings have significant implications for human and animal health. As exposure to relevant Simulium species increases, it becomes imperative to remain vigilant, particularly in investigating the potential transmission of pathogens.