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Institute
The risk of increasing dengue (DEN) and chikungunya (CHIK) epidemics impacts 240 million people, health systems, and the economy in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. The aim of this systematic review is to monitor trends in the distribution and spread of DEN/CHIK over time and geographically for future reliable vector and disease control in the HKH region. We conducted a systematic review of the literature on the spatiotemporal distribution of DEN/CHIK in HKH published up to 23 January 2020, following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. In total, we found 61 articles that focused on the spatial and temporal distribution of 72,715 DEN and 2334 CHIK cases in the HKH region from 1951 to 2020. DEN incidence occurs in seven HKH countries, i.e., India, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Myanmar, and CHIK occurs in four HKH countries, i.e., India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar, out of eight HKH countries. DEN is highly seasonal and starts with the onset of the monsoon (July in India and June in Nepal) and with the onset of spring (May in Bhutan) and peaks in the postmonsoon season (September to November). This current trend of increasing numbers of both diseases in many countries of the HKH region requires coordination of response efforts to prevent and control the future expansion of those vector-borne diseases to nonendemic areas, across national borders.
Background:Aedes aegypti is a potential vector for several arboviruses including dengue and Zika viruses. The species seems to be restricted to subtropical/tropical habitats and has difficulties in establishing permanent populations in southern Europe, probably due to constraints during the winter season. The aim of this study was to systematically analyze the cold tolerance (CT) of Ae. aegypti in its most cold-resistant life stage, the eggs.
Methods: The CT of Ae. aegypti eggs was compared with that of Ae. albopictus which is well established in large parts of Europe. By systematically studying the literature (meta-analysis), we recognized that CT has been rarely tested in Ae. aegypti eggs, but eggs can survive at zero and sub-zero temperatures for certain exposure periods. To overcome potential bias from experimental differences between studies, we then conducted species comparisons using a harmonized high-resolution CT measuring method. From subtropical populations of the same origin, the survival (hatching in %) and emergence of adults of both species were measured after zero and sub-zero temperature exposures for up to 9 days (3 °C, 0 °C and − 2 °C: ≤ 9 days; − 6 °C: ≤ 2 days).
Results: Our data show that Ae. aegypti eggs can survive low and sub-zero temperatures for a short time period similar to or even better than those of Ae. albopictus. Moreover, after short sub-zero exposures of eggs of both species, individuals still developed into viable adults (Ae. aegypti: 3 adults emerged after 6 days at − 2 °C, Ae. albopictus: 1 adult emerged after 1 day at − 6 °C).
Conclusions: Thus, both the literature and the present experimental data indicate that a cold winter may not be the preventing factor for the re-establishment of the dengue vector Ae. aegypti in southern Europe.
Observed weather and projected climate change suggest an increase in the transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. In this study, we systematically explore the literature for empiric associations between the climate variables and specific VBDs and their vectors in the HKH region. We conducted a systematic synthesis of the published literature on climate variables, VBDs and vectors in the HKH region until the 8th of December 2020. The majority of studies show significant positive associations of VBDs with climatic factors, such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, etc. This systematic review allowed us to identify the most significant variables to be considered for evidence-based trend estimates of the effects of climate change on VBDs and their vectors in the HKH region. This evidence-based trend was set into the context of climate change as well as the observed expansion of VBDs and disease vectors in the HKH region. The geographic range of VBDs expanded into previously considered non-endemic areas of highlands (mountains) in the HKH region. Based on scarce, but clear evidence of a positive relationship of most climate variables and VBDs and the observed climatic changes, we strongly recommend an expansion of vector control and surveillance programmes in areas of the HKH region that were previously considered to be non-endemic.