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This study presents a method for adjusting long-term climate data records (CDRs) for the integrated use with near-real-time data using the example of surface incoming solar irradiance (SIS). Recently, a 23-year long (1983–2005) continuous SIS CDR has been generated based on the visible channel (0.45–1 μm) of the MVIRI radiometers onboard the geostationary Meteosat First Generation Platform. The CDR is available from the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF). Here, it is assessed whether a homogeneous extension of the SIS CDR to the present is possible with operationally generated surface radiation data provided by CM SAF using the SEVIRI and GERB instruments onboard the Meteosat Second Generation satellites. Three extended CM SAF SIS CDR versions consisting of MVIRI-derived SIS (1983–2005) and three different SIS products derived from the SEVIRI and GERB instruments onboard the MSG satellites (2006 onwards) were tested. A procedure to detect shift inhomogeneities in the extended data record (1983–present) was applied that combines the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) and a penalized maximal T-test with visual inspection. Shift detection was done by comparing the SIS time series with the ground stations mean, in accordance with statistical significance. Several stations of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and about 50 stations of the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) over Europe were used as the ground-based reference. The analysis indicates several breaks in the data record between 1987 and 1994 probably due to artefacts in the raw data and instrument failures. After 2005 the MVIRI radiometer was replaced by the narrow-band SEVIRI and the broadband GERB radiometers and a new retrieval algorithm was applied. This induces significant challenges for the homogenisation across the satellite generations. Homogenisation is performed by applying a mean-shift correction depending on the shift size of any segment between two break points to the last segment (2006–present). Corrections are applied to the most significant breaks that can be related to satellite changes. This study focuses on the European region, but the methods can be generalized to other regions. To account for seasonal dependence of the mean-shifts the correction was performed independently for each calendar month. In comparison to the ground-based reference the homogenised data record shows an improvement over the original data record in terms of anomaly correlation and bias. In general the method can also be applied for the adjustment of satellite datasets addressing other variables to bridge the gap between CDRs and near-real-time data.
In this study we show how size-resolved measurements of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) can be used to characterize the supersaturation of water vapor in a cloud. The method was developed and applied for the investigation of a cloud event during the ACRIDICON-Zugspitze campaign (17 September to 4 October 2012) at the high-alpine research station Schneefernerhaus (German Alps, 2650 m a.s.l.). Number size distributions of total and interstitial aerosol particles were measured with a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS), and size-resolved CCN efficiency spectra were recorded with a CCN counter system operated at different supersaturation levels.
During the evolution of a cloud, aerosol particles are exposed to different supersaturation levels. We outline and compare different estimates for the lower and upper bounds (Slow, Shigh) and the average value (Savg) of peak supersaturation encountered by the particles in the cloud. For the investigated cloud event, we derived Slow ≈ 0.19–0.25%, Shigh ≈ 0.90–1.64% and Savg ≈ 0.38–0.84%. Estimates of Slow, Shigh and Savg based on aerosol size distribution data require specific knowledge or assumptions of aerosol hygroscopicity, which are not required for the derivation of Slow and Savg from the size-resolved CCN efficiency spectra.
Planktonic Foraminifera are important marine calcifiers, and the ongoing change in the oceanic carbon system makes it essential to understand the influence of environmental factors on the biomineralization of their shells. The amount of calcite deposited by planktonic Foraminifera during calcification has been hypothesized to reflect a range of environmental factors. However, it has never been assessed whether their calcification only passively responds to the conditions of the ambient seawater or whether it reflects changes in resource allocation due to physiological stress. To disentangle these two end-member scenarios, an experiment is required where the two processes are separated. A natural analogue to such an experiment occurred during the deposition of the Mediterranean sapropels, where large changes in surface water composition and stratification at the onset of the sapropel deposition were decoupled from local extinctions of planktonic Foraminifera species. We took advantage of this natural experiment and investigated the reaction of calcification intensity, expressed as mean area density (MAD), of four species of planktonic Foraminifera to changing conditions during the onset of Sapropel S5 (126–121 ka) in a sediment core from the Levantine Basin. We observed a significant relationship between MAD and surface water properties, as reflected by stable isotopes in the calcite of Foraminifera shells, but we failed to observe any reaction of calcification intensity on ecological stress during times of decreasing abundance culminating in local extinction. The reaction of calcification intensity to surface water perturbation at the onset of the sapropel was observed only in surface-dwelling species, but all species calcified more strongly prior to the sapropel deposition and less strongly within the sapropel than at similar conditions during the present-day. These results indicate that the high-salinity environment of the glacial Mediterranean Sea prior to sapropel deposition induced a~more intense calcification, whereas the freshwater injection to the surface waters associated with sapropel deposition inhibited calcification. The results are robust to changes in carbonate preservation and collectively imply that changes in normalized shell weight in planktonic Foraminifera should reflect mainly abiotic forcing.
Planktonic Foraminifera are important marine calcifiers, and the ongoing change in the oceanic carbon system makes it essential to understand the influence of environmental factors on the biomineralisation of their shells. The amount of calcite deposited by planktonic Foraminifera during calcification has been hypothesized to reflect a range of environmental factors. However, it has never been assessed whether their calcification only passively responds to the conditions of the ambient seawater or whether it reflects changes in resource allocation due to physiological stress. To disentangle these two end-member scenarios, an experiment is required where the two processes are separated. A natural analogue to such an experiment occurred during the deposition of the Mediterranean sapropels, where large changes in surface water composition and stratification at the onset of the sapropel deposition were decoupled from local extinctions of planktonic Foraminifera species. We take advantage of this natural experiment and investigate the reaction of calcification intensity, expressed as size-normalized weight (SNW), of four species of planktonic Foraminifera to changing conditions during the onset of Sapropel S5 (126–121 ka) in a sediment core from the Levantine Basin. We observe a significant relationship between SNW and surface water properties, as reflected by stable isotopes in the calcite of Foraminifera shells, but we failed to observe any reaction of calcification intensity on ecological stress during times of decreasing abundance culminating in local extinction. The reaction of calcification intensity to surface water perturbation at the onset of the sapropel was observed only in surface dwelling species, but all species calcified more strongly prior to the sapropel deposition and less strongly within the sapropel than at comparable conditions during the present day. These results indicate that the high-salinity environment of the glacial Mediterranean Sea prior to sapropel deposition induced a more intense calcification, whereas the freshwater injection to the surface waters associated with sapropel deposition inhibited calcification. The results are robust to changes in carbonate preservation and collectively imply that changes in normalized shell weight in planktonic Foraminifera should reflect mainly abiotic forcing.
Projections of future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed. Projections of change from the baseline period (1981–2010) to the future (2070–2099) from a number of different ecosystems and hydrological models were studied. The differences between projections from the two types of model were looked at globally and regionally. Typically, across different regions the ecosystem models tended to project larger increases and smaller decreases in runoff than the hydrological models. However, the differences varied both regionally and seasonally. Sensitivity experiments were also used to investigate the contributions of varying CO2 and allowing vegetation distribution to evolve on projected changes in runoff. In two out of four models which had data available from CO2 sensitivity experiments, allowing CO2 to vary was found to increase runoff more than keeping CO2 constant, while in two models runoff decreased. This suggests more uncertainty in runoff responses to elevated CO2 than previously considered. As CO2 effects on evapotranspiration via stomatal conductance and leaf-area index are more commonly included in ecosystems models than in hydrological models, this may partially explain some of the difference between model types. Keeping the vegetation distribution static in JULES runs had much less effect on runoff projections than varying CO2, but this may be more pronounced if looked at over a longer timescale as vegetation changes may take longer to reach a new state.
Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP
(2013)
Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981–2010) to the future (2070–2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.
In this study we report the set-up of a novel twin chamber technique that uses the comparative method and establishes an appropriate connection of atmospheric and laboratory methods to broaden the tools for investigations. It is designed to study the impact of certain parameters and gases on ambient processes, such as particle formation online, and can be applied in a large variety of conditions. The characterisation of both chambers proved that both chambers operate identically, with a residence time xT (COMPASS1) = 26.5 ± 0.3 min and xT (COMPASS2) = 26.6 ± 0.4 min, at a typical flow rate of 15 L min−1 and a gas leak rate of (1.6 ± 0.8) × 10−5 s−1. Particle loss rates were found to be larger (due to the particles' stickiness to the chamber walls), with an extrapolated maximum of 1.8 × 10−3 s−1 at 1 nm, i.e. a hundredfold of the gas leak rate. This latter value is associated with sticky non-volatile gaseous compounds, too. Comparison measurement showed no significant differences. Therefore operation under atmospheric conditions is trustworthy. To indicate the applicability and the benefit of the system, a set of experiments was conducted under different conditions, i.e. urban and remote, enhanced ozone and terpenes as well as reduced sunlight. In order to do so, an ozone lamp was applied to enhance ozone in one of two chambers; the measurement chamber was protected from radiation by a first-aid cover and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were added using a small additional flow and a temperature-controlled oven. During the elevated ozone period, ambient particle number and volume increased substantially at urban and remote conditions, but by a different intensity. Protection of solar radiation displayed a clear negative effect on particle number, while terpene addition did cause a distinct daily pattern. E.g. adding β pinene particle number concentration rose by 13% maximum at noontime, while no significant effect was observable during darkness. Therefore, the system is a useful tool for investigating local precursors and the details of ambient particle formation at surface locations as well as potential future feedback processes.
The anthropogenic influence on climate and environment has increased strongly since industrialization about 150 yr ago. The consequences for the atmosphere became more and more apparent and nowadays affect our life quality on Earth progressively. Because of that it is very important to understand the atmospheric processes, on which these effects are based on, in detail. In this study we report the set-up of a novel twin chamber technique that uses the comparative method and establishes an appropriate connection of atmospheric and laboratory methods to broaden the tools for investigations. It is designed to study the impact of certain parameters and gases on ambient processes such as particle formation online and can be applied in a large variety of conditions. The characterisation of both chambers proved that both chambers operate identically with a residence time (xT (COMPASS 1) = 26.5 ± 0.3 min and xT (COMPASS 2) = 26.6 ± 0.4 min) at a typical flow rate of 15 L min−1 and a deposition rate (1.6 ± 0.8) × 10−5 s−1. Comparison measurement showed no significant differences. Therefore operation under atmospheric conditions is trustworthy. To indicate the applicability and the benefit of the system a set of experiments was conducted at different conditions, i.e. urban and remote, enhancing ozone and terpenes as well as reducing sunlight. In the ozone enhanced ambient particle number and volume increased substantially at urban and remote conditions in a different strength. Solar radiation displayed a clear positive effect on particle number as well as terpene addition did at remote conditions. Therefore the system is a useful tool to investigate local precursors, the details of ambient particle formation at surface locations as well as future feedback processes.
Since the 1980s, advances in wastewater treatment technology have led to considerably improved surface water quality in the urban areas of many high income countries. However, trace concentrations of organic wastewater-associated contaminants may still pose a key environmental hazard impairing the ecological quality of surface waters. To identify key impact factors, we analyzed the effects of a wide range of anthropogenic and environmental variables on the aquatic macroinvertebrate community. We assessed ecological water quality at 26 sampling sites in four urban German lowland river systems with a 0–100% load of state-of-the-art biological activated sludge treated wastewater. The chemical analysis suite comprised 12 organic contaminants (five phosphor organic flame retardants, two musk fragrances, bisphenol A, nonylphenol, octylphenol, diethyltoluamide, terbutryn), 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and 12 heavy metals. Non-metric multidimensional scaling identified organic contaminants that are mainly wastewater-associated (i.e., phosphor organic flame retardants, musk fragrances, and diethyltoluamide) as a major impact variable on macroinvertebrate species composition. The structural degradation of streams was also identified as a significant factor. Multiple linear regression models revealed a significant impact of organic contaminants on invertebrate populations, in particular on Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera species. Spearman rank correlation analyses confirmed wastewater-associated organic contaminants as the most significant variable negatively impacting the biodiversity of sensitive macroinvertebrate species. In addition to increased aquatic pollution with organic contaminants, a greater wastewater fraction was accompanied by a slight decrease in oxygen concentration and an increase in salinity. This study highlights the importance of reducing the wastewater-associated impact on surface waters. For aquatic ecosystems in urban areas this would lead to: (i) improvement of the ecological integrity, (ii) reduction of biodiversity loss, and (iii) faster achievement of objectives of legislative requirements, e.g., the European Water Framework Directive.
Environmental change impacts on the C- and N-cycle of European forests: a model comparison study
(2013)
Forests are important components of the greenhouse gas balance of Europe. There is considerable uncertainty about how predicted changes to climate and nitrogen deposition will perturb the carbon and nitrogen cycles of European forests and thereby alter forest growth, carbon sequestration and N2O emission. The present study aimed to quantify the carbon and nitrogen balance, including the exchange of greenhouse gases, of European forests over the period 2010–2030, with a particular emphasis on the spatial variability of change. The analysis was carried out for two tree species: European beech and Scots pine. For this purpose, four different dynamic models were used: BASFOR, DailyDayCent, INTEGRATOR and Landscape-DNDC. These models span a range from semi-empirical to complex mechanistic. Comparison of these models allowed assessment of the extent to which model predictions depended on differences in model inputs and structure. We found a European average carbon sink of 0.160 ± 0.020 kgC m−2 yr−1 (pine) and 0.138 ± 0.062 kgC m−2 yr−1 (beech) and N2O source of 0.285 ± 0.125 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (pine) and 0.575 ± 0.105 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (beech). The European average greenhouse gas potential of the carbon sink was 18 (pine) and 8 (beech) times that of the N2O source. Carbon sequestration was larger in the trees than in the soil. Carbon sequestration and forest growth were largest in central Europe and lowest in northern Sweden and Finland, N. Poland and S. Spain. No single driver was found to dominate change across Europe. Forests were found to be most sensitive to change in environmental drivers where the drivers were limiting growth, where changes were particularly large or where changes acted in concert. The models disagreed as to which environmental changes were most significant for the geographical variation in forest growth and as to which tree species showed the largest rate of carbon sequestration. Pine and beech forests were found to have differing sensitivities to environmental change, in particular the response to changes in nitrogen and precipitation, with beech forest more vulnerable to drought. There was considerable uncertainty about the geographical location of N2O emissions. Two of the models BASFOR and LandscapeDNDC had largest emissions in central Europe where nitrogen deposition and soil nitrogen were largest, whereas the two other models identified different regions with large N2O emission. N2O emissions were found to be larger from beech than pine forests and were found to be particularly sensitive to forest growth.