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Statistical analysis on various stocks reveals long range dependence behavior of the stock prices that is not consistent with the classical Black and Scholes model. This memory or nondeterministic trend behavior is often seen as a reflection of market sentiments and causes that the historical volatility estimator becomes unreliable in practice. We propose an extension of the Black and Scholes model by adding a term to the original Wiener term involving a smoother process which accounts for these effects. The problem of arbitrage will be discussed. Using a generalized stochastic integration theory [8], we show that it is possible to construct a self financing replicating portfolio for a European option without any further knowledge of the extension and that, as a consequence, the classical concept of volatility needs to be re-interpreted.
AMS subject classifications: 60H05, 60H10, 90A09.
Integral equations for the mean-square estimate are obtained for the linear filtering problem, in which the noise generating the signal is a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index h∈(3/4,1) and the noise in the observation process includes a fractional Brownian motion as well as a Wiener process. AMS subject classifications: 93E11, 60G20, 60G35.