Institut für Ökologie, Evolution und Diversität
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Background: Aedes albopictus and Ae. japonicus are two of the most widespread invasive mosquito species that have recently become established in western Europe. Both species are associated with the transmission of a number of serious diseases and are projected to continue their spread in Europe.
Methods: In the present study, we modelled the habitat suitability for both species under current and future climatic conditions by means of an Ensemble forecasting approach. We additionally compared the modelled MAXENT niches of Ae. albopictus and Ae. japonicus regarding temperature and precipitation requirements.
Results: Both species were modelled to find suitable habitat conditions in distinct areas within Europe: Ae. albopictus within the Mediterranean regions in southern Europe, Ae. japonicus within the more temperate regions of central Europe. Only in few regions, suitable habitat conditions were projected to overlap for both species. Whereas Ae. albopictus is projected to be generally promoted by climate change in Europe, the area modelled to be climatically suitable for Ae. japonicus is projected to decrease under climate change. This projection of range reduction under climate change relies on the assumption that Ae. japonicus is not able to adapt to warmer climatic conditions. The modelled MAXENT temperature niches of Ae. japonicus were found to be narrower with an optimum at lower temperatures compared to the niches of Ae. albopictus.
Conclusions: Species distribution models identifying areas with high habitat suitability can help improving monitoring programmes for invasive species currently in place. However, as mosquito species are known to be able to adapt to new environmental conditions within the invasion range quickly, niche evolution of invasive mosquito species should be closely followed upon in future studies.
The knowledge of phenotypic variation in the European range of the highly allergenic Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. (common ragweed) is not entirely complete, even though it is an invasive species of utmost concern. We hypothesized the prevalence of phenotypic differentiations between common ragweed populations in the introduced range, and we assumed that those differentiations were related to environmental conditions at the points of origin. Using a common garden experiment, we investigated biomass allocation, growth rates, and flowering phenology of 38 European common ragweed populations originating from a major geographical gradient. We observed considerable phenotypic variation in growth parameters and flowering phenology, e.g. mean aboveground biomass varied from 23.3 to 47.3 g between the populations. We were able to relate most measured traits with environmental parameters prevailing at the points of origin. For example, early growth of ruderal populations was highly correlated with temperature and precipitation at the point of origin. Late growth and flowering phenology were highly correlated with latitude, i.e. individuals from northern populations grew smaller and flowered and dispersed their pollen and seeds up to 5 weeks earlier than individuals from southern populations. We also found a longitudinal gradient in flowering phenology which has not yet been described. The existence of such a high variability in the introduced range may facilitate further range expansion. We suggest that the correlation with environmental variables rests upon genetic variation possibly due to adaptations to the respective environment. To clarify if such adaptation results from multiple events of introduction or as evolutionary response after introduction, genetic investigations are needed.