330 Wirtschaft
Refine
Year of publication
- 2021 (217)
- 2014 (181)
- 2017 (173)
- 2020 (172)
- 2022 (164)
- 2018 (163)
- 2023 (154)
- 2016 (150)
- 2013 (145)
- 2015 (141)
- 2019 (133)
- 2012 (106)
- 2008 (100)
- 2005 (96)
- 2003 (95)
- 2009 (93)
- 2010 (92)
- 2011 (90)
- 2006 (82)
- 2004 (73)
- 2007 (68)
- 2024 (60)
- 2002 (45)
- 2001 (41)
- 1999 (35)
- 2000 (33)
- 1998 (31)
- 1997 (11)
- 1996 (10)
- 1993 (5)
- 1994 (4)
- 1995 (3)
- 1992 (2)
- 1892 (1)
- 1943 (1)
- 1946 (1)
- 1976 (1)
- 1990 (1)
- 1991 (1)
Document Type
- Working Paper (1834)
- Article (474)
- Part of Periodical (446)
- Report (105)
- Doctoral Thesis (40)
- Book (28)
- Conference Proceeding (14)
- Periodical (11)
- Part of a Book (9)
- Review (7)
Language
- English (2975) (remove)
Is part of the Bibliography
- no (2975)
Keywords
- Deutschland (117)
- Geldpolitik (55)
- USA (51)
- monetary policy (50)
- Financial Institutions (48)
- Schätzung (48)
- Europäische Union (44)
- Monetary Policy (44)
- ECB (42)
- Bank (39)
Institute
- Wirtschaftswissenschaften (1862)
- Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (1476)
- Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE) (1057)
- House of Finance (HoF) (698)
- E-Finance Lab e.V. (356)
- Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) (191)
- Rechtswissenschaft (89)
- Foundation of Law and Finance (50)
- Gesellschaftswissenschaften (31)
- Institute for Law and Finance (ILF) (31)
Inflation and trading
(2024)
We study how investors respond to inflation combining a customized survey experiment with trading data at a time of historically high inflation. Investors' beliefs about the stock return-inflation relation are very heterogeneous in the cross section and on average too optimistic. Moreover, many investors appear unaware of inflation-hedging strategies despite being otherwise well-informed about inflation and asset returns. Consequently, whereas exogenous shifts in inflation expectations do not impact return expectations, information on past returns during periods of high inflation leads to negative updating about the perceived stock-return impact of inflation, which feeds into return expectations and subsequent actual trading behavior.
This paper contributes a multivariate forecasting comparison between structural models and Machine-Learning-based tools. Specifically, a fully connected feed forward non-linear autoregressive neural network (ANN) is contrasted to a well established dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) using optimized priors as well as Greenbook and SPF forecasts. Model estimation and forecasting is based on an expanding window scheme using quarterly U.S. real-time data (1964Q2:2020Q3) for 8 macroeconomic time series (GDP, inflation, federal funds rate, spread, consumption, investment, wage, hours worked), allowing for up to 8 quarter ahead forecasts. The results show that the BVAR improves forecasts compared to the DSGE model, however there is evidence for an overall improvement of predictions when relying on ANN, or including them in a weighted average. Especially, ANN-based inflation forecasts improve other predictions by up to 50%. These results indicate that nonlinear data-driven ANNs are a useful method when it comes to macroeconomic forecasting.
Central bank intervention in the form of quantitative easing (QE) during times of low interest rates is a controversial topic. The author introduces a novel approach to study the effectiveness of such unconventional measures. Using U.S. data on six key financial and macroeconomic variables between 1990 and 2015, the economy is estimated by artificial neural networks. Historical counterfactual analyses show that real effects are less pronounced than yield effects.
Disentangling the effects of the individual asset purchase programs, impulse response functions provide evidence for QE being less effective the more the crisis is overcome. The peak effects of all QE interventions during the Financial Crisis only amounts to 1.3 pp for GDP growth and 0.6 pp for inflation respectively. Hence, the time as well as the volume of the interventions should be deliberated.
The paper presents the findings of two recent books on the financial history of the Frankfurt School: Jeanette Erazo-Heufelder, Der argentinische Krösus: Kleine Wirtschaftsgeschichte der Frankfurter Schule, 2017, and Bertus Mulder, Sophie Louisa Kwaak und das Kapital der Unternehmerfamilie Weil. Ein Beitrag zur Wirtschaftsgeschichte der Frankfurter Schule, 2021 (Dutch original 2015). In contrast to the “court histories” of the school, the two authors tell the story of the money that brought the school to life and secured its existence throughout a turbulent period of history. At the center of the books are individuals who have been sidelined until now or even completely ignored by the literature on the Frankfurt School: on the one hand, Felix Weil, who founded and financed the Institute of Social Research and, on the other hand, Erich A. Nadel and Sophie L. Kwaak, two employees of the holding company who managed the accounts of the Weil family and the Institute’s foundations and were responsible for protecting the assets from being seized by Nazis. The books’ thick descriptions induced the author of the present paper to consider an alternative perspective on the Frankfurt School by contemplating Max Horkheimer and Friedrich Pollock as playing confidential games with Weil and others.
We create an alternative version of the present utility value formula to explicitly show that every store-of-value in the economy bears utility-interest (non-pecuniary income) for ist holder regardless of possible interest earnings from financial markets. In addition, we generalize the well-known welfare measures of consumer and producer surplus as present value concepts and apply them not only for the production and usage of consumer goods and durables but also for money and other financial assets. This helps us, inter alia, to formalize the circumstances under which even a producer of legal tender might become insolvent. We also develop a new measure of seigniorage and demonstrate why the well-established concept of monetary seigniorage is flawed. Our framework also allows us to formulate the conditions for liability-issued money such as inside money and financial instruments such as debt certificates to become – somewhat paradoxically – net wealth of the society.
This paper studies discrete time finite horizon life-cycle models with arbitrary discount functions and iso-elastic per period power utility with concavity parameter θ. We distinguish between the savings behavior of a sophisticated versus a naive agent. Although both agent types have identical preferences, they solve different utility maximization problems whenever the model is dynamically inconsistent. Pollak (1968) shows that the savings behavior of both agent types is nevertheless identical for logarithmic utility (θ = 1). We generalize this result by showing that the sophisticated agent saves in every period a greater fraction of her wealth than the naive agent if and only if θ ≥ 1. While this result goes through for model extensions that preserve linearity of the consumption policy function, it breaks down for non-linear model extensions.
SAFE Update April 2024
(2024)