Frankfurt Hydrology Paper
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19
Groundwater is the largest source of accessible freshwater with its dynamics having significantly changed due to human withdrawals, and being projected to continue to as a result of climate change. The pumping of groundwater has led to lowered water tables, decreased base flow, and depletion.
Global hydrological models (GHMs) are used to simulate the global freshwater cycle, assessing impacts of changes in climate and human freshwater use. Currently, groundwater is commonly represented by a bucket-like linear storage component in these models. Bucket models, however, cannot provide information on the location of the groundwater table. Due to this limitation, they can only simulate groundwater discharge to surface water bodies but not recharge from surface water to groundwater and calculate no lateral and vertical groundwater flow whatsoever among grid cells. For instance this may lead to an underestimation of groundwater resources in semiarid areas, where groundwater is often replenished by surface water. In order to overcome these limitations it is necessary to replace the linear groundwater model in GHMs with a hydraulic head gradient-based groundwater flow model
This thesis presents the newly developed global groundwater model G3M and its coupling to the GHM WaterGAP spanning over 70,000 lines of newly developed code. Development and validation of the modeling software are discussed along with numerical challenges. Based on the newly developed software, a global natural equilibrium groundwater model is presented showing better agreements with observations than previous models. Groundwater discharge to rivers is found to be the most dominant flow component globally, compared to flows to other surface water bodies and lateral flows. Furthermore, first global maps of the distribution of gaining and losing surface water bodies are displayed.
For the purpose of determining the uncertainty in model outcomes a sensitivity study is conducted with an innovative approach through applying a global sensitivity analysis for a computationally complex model. First global maps of spatially distributed parameter sensitivities are presented. The results at hand indicate that globally simulated hydraulic heads are equally sensitive to hydraulic conductivity, groundwater recharge and surface water body elevation, even though parameter sensitivities do vary regionally.
A high resolution model of New Zealand is developed to further understand the involved uncertainties connected to the spatial resolution of the global model. This thesis finds that a new understanding is necessary how these models can be evaluated and that a simple increase in spatial resolution is not improving the model performance when compared to observations.
Alongside the assessment of the natural equilibrium, the concept of a fully coupled transient model as integrated storage component replacing the former model in the hydrological model WaterGAP is discussed. First results reveal that the model shows reasonable response to seasonal variability although it contains persistent head trends leading to global overestimates of water table depth due to an incomplete coupling. Nonetheless, WaterGAP-G3M is already able to show plausible long term storage trends for areas that are known to be affected by groundwater depletion. In comparison with two established regional models in the Central Valley the coupled model shows a highly promising simulation of storage declines.
18
The Global Irrigation Model (GIM) is used within the framework of the global hydrological model WaterGAP to calculate monthly irrigation crop water use. Results on a 0.5 degrees grid include, consumption (ICU) and, via division by irrigation efficiencies, water withdrawal (IWU). The model distinguishes up to two cropping periods of rice and non-rice crops, each grown for 150 days, using a grid of area equipped for irrigation (AEI). Historical development of AEI and fraction of area actually irrigated (AAI) was previously considered via scaling of cell-specific results with country-specific factors for each year. In this study, GIM was adapted to use the new Historical Irrigation Data set (HID) with cell-specific AEI for 14 time slices between 1900 and 2005. AEI grids were temporally interpolated, and using the optional grid of AAI/AEI, results for years 1901-2014 were generated (runs "HID-ACT"). Thus, new installation or abandonment of irrigation infrastructure in new grid cells can be represented in a spatially explicit manner. For evaluated years 1910, 1960, 1995, and 2005, ICU from HID-ACT was superior to country-specific scaled results (run "HID-ACTHIST") in representing historical development of the spatial pattern. Compared to US state-level reference data, spatial patterns were better, while country totals were not always better. For calculating the cropping periods, 30-years climate means are needed, the choice of which is relevant. Four chosen periods before 1981-2010 all resulted in considerable, pertaining changes of ICU spatial pattern, and various percent changes in country totals. This might be because of already present climate change.
17
Floodplains and other wetlands depend on seasonal river flooding and play an important role in the terrestrial water cycle. They influence evapotranspiration, water storage and river discharge dynamics, and they are the habitat of a large number of animals and plants. Thus, to assess the Earth’s system and its changes, a robust understanding of the dynamics of floodplain wetlands including inundated areas, water storages, and water flows is required.
This PhD thesis aims at improving the modeling of large floodplains and wetlands within the global-scale hydrological model WaterGAP, in order to better estimate water flows and water storage variations in different storage compartments. Within the scope of this thesis, I have developed a new approach to simulate dynamic floodplain inundation on a global-scale. This approach introduces an algorithm into WaterGAP, which has a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree (longitude and latitude) globally. The new approach uses subgrid-scale topography, based on high-resolution digital elevation models, to describe the floodplain elevation profile within each grid cell by applying a hypsographic curve. The approach comprises the modeling of a two-way river-floodplain interaction, the separate downstream water transport within the river and the floodplain – both with temporally and spatially different variable flow velocities – and the floodplain-groundwater interactions. The WaterGAP version that includes the floodplain algorithm, WaterGAP 2.2b_fpl, estimates floodplain and river water storage, inundated area and water table elevation, and also simulates backwater effects.
WaterGAP 2.2b_fpl was applied to model river discharge, river flow velocity, water storages, water heights and surface water extent on a global-scale. Model results were comprehensively validated against ground observations and remote sensing data. Overall, the modeled and observed data are in agreement. In comparison to the former version WaterGAP 2.2b, the model performance has improved significantly. The improvements are most remarkable in the Amazon River basin. However, the seasonal variation of surface water extent and total water storage anomalies are still too low in many regions on the globe when compared to observations. A detailed analysis of the simulated results suggests that in the Amazon River basin the introduction of backwater effects is important for realistically simulating water storages and surface water extent. Future efforts should focus on the simulation of water levels in order to better model the flow routing according to water slope. To further improve the model performance in specific regions, I recommend that the globally constant model parameters that affect inundation initiation, river-floodplain interaction, DEM correction for vegetation, and backwater amount at basin or subbasin-scale be adjusted.
16
The estimation of water balance components as well as water-related indicators on the land surface by means of global hydrological models have evolved in recent decades. Results of such models are frequently used in global- and continental-scale assessments of the current and future state of the terrestrial water cycle and provide a valuable data basis, e.g., for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The Water – Global Assessment and Prognosis (WaterGAP) model is one of the state-of-the-art models in that field and has been in development and application for around 20 years. The evaluation, modification and application of WaterGAP is the subject of this thesis. In particular, the sensitivity of climate input data on radiation calculation and simulated water fluxes and storages is evaluated in the first part. Effects of model modification such as updated spatial input datasets, improved process representation or an alternative calibration scheme are the focus of the second part. Finally, three applications of WaterGAP give insight into the capabilities of that model, namely an estimate of global and continental water balance components, an assessment of groundwater depletion and the impact of climate change on river flow regimes. Model experiments, which are described in six journal papers as well as the appendices, were used as the basis for answering the total of 13 research questions. One of the major foci was to quantify the sensitivity of simulated water fluxes and storages to alternative climate input data. It was found that the handling of precipitation undercatch leads to the greatest difference in water balance components, especially in those areas where WaterGAP is not calibrated due to a lack of river discharge observations. The modifications of WaterGAP in the last few decades has led in general to an improved simulation of monthly river discharge, but process representation in semi-arid and arid regions still requires improvements. With the most current model version, WaterGAP 2.2b, and for the time period 1971–2000, river discharge to the oceans and inland sinks is estimated to be 40 000 km3 yr-1, whereas actual evapotranspiration is simulated as 70 500 km3 yr-1. Future research needs for WaterGAP in particular but also for the global hydrological model community in general are defined, promoting a community-driven effort for a robust assessment of the continental water cycle.
13
Transforming the current rather centralized electricity generating system into a climate neutral system based on renewable energy is an important approach to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thus mitigate climate change. Stakeholders have each of them their own perception of the best strategies to achieve such a transformation. All perspectives are equally legitimate and needed for developing a specific transformation strategy suited for the region in focus....
14
Within the framework of the Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme (TWAP), initiated by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), we contributed to a comprehensive baseline assessment of transboundary aquifers (TBAs) by quantifying different groundwater indicators using the global water resources and water use model WaterGAP 2.2. All indicators were computed under current (2010) and projected conditions in 2030 and 2050 for 91 selected TBAs larger than 20,000 km2 and for each nation’s share of the TBAs (TBA-CU: country unit). TBA outlines were provided by the International Groundwater Resources Assessment Centre (IGRAC). The set of indicators comprises groundwater recharge, groundwater depletion, per-capita groundwater recharge, dependency on groundwater, population density, and groundwater development stress (groundwater withdrawals to groundwater recharge). Only the latter four indicators were projected to 2030 and 2050. Current-state indicators were quantified using the Watch Forcing Data climate dataset, while projections were based on five climate scenarios that were computed by five global climate models for the high-emissions scenario RCP 8.5. Water use projections were based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathway SSP2 developed within ISI-MIP. Furthermore, two scenarios of future irrigated areas were explored. For individual water use sectors, the fraction of groundwater abstraction was assumed to remain at the current level.
According to our assessment, aquifers with the highest current groundwater depletion rates worldwide are not transboundary. Exceptions are the Neogene Aquifer System (Syria) with 53 mm/yr between 2000 and 2009 and the Indus River Plain aquifer (India) with 28 mm/yr. For current conditions, we identified 20 out of 258 TBA-CUs suffering from medium to very high groundwater development stress, which are located in the Middle East and North Africa region, in South Asia, China, and the USA. Considering projections, ensemble means of per-cent changes or percent point changes to current conditions were determined. Per-capita groundwater recharge is projected to decrease in 80-90% of all TBA-CUs until 2030/2050. Due to the strongly varying projections of the global climate models, we applied a worst-case scenario approach to define future hotspots of groundwater development stress, taking into account the strongest computed increase until either 2030 or 2050 among all scenarios and individual GCMs. Based on this approach, the number of TBA-CUs under at least medium groundwater development stress increases from 20 to 58, comprising all hotspots under current conditions. New hotspots are projected to develop mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa, China, and Mexico.
15
Water is scarce in semi-arid and arid regions. Using alternative water sources (i.e. non-conventional water sources), such as municipal reuse water and harvested rain, contributes to using existing water resources more efficiently and productively. The aim of this study is to evaluate the two alternative water sources reuse water and harvested rain for the irrigation of small-holder agriculture from a system perspective. This helps decision and policy makers to have proper information about which system and technology to adopt under local conditions. For this, the evaluation included ecologic, societal, economic, institutional and political as well as technical aspects. For the evaluation, the study area in central-northern Namibia was chosen in the frame of the research and development project CuveWaters. The main methods used include a mathematical material flow analysis, the computation and modelling of crop requirements, a multi-criteria decision analysis using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and a financial cost-benefit analysis. From a systemic perspective, the proposed novel systems were compared to the exciting conventional infrastructure. The results showed that both water reuse and rainwater harvesting systems for the irrigation of small-holder horticulture offer numerous technological, ecologic, economic, societal, institutional and political benefits. Rainwater harvesting based gardens have a positive benefit-cost ratio under favorable conditions. Government programs could fund the infrastructure investment costs, while the micro-entrepreneur can assume a micro-credit to finance operation and maintenance costs. Installing sanitation in informal settlements and reusing municipal water for irrigation reduces the overall water demand of households and agriculture by 39%, compared to improving sanitation facilities in informal settlements without reusing the water for agriculture. Given that water is the limiting factor for crop fertigation, the generated nutrient-rich reuse water is sufficient to annually irrigate about 10 m2 to 13 m2 per sanitation user. Compared to crop nutrient requirements, there are too many nutrients in the reuse water. Thus when using nutrient-rich reuse water, no use of fertilizers and a careful salt management is necessary. When comparing this novel system with improved sanitation, advanced wastewater treatment and nutrient-rich water reuse to the conventional and to two adapted systems, results showed that the novel CuveWaters system is the best option for the given context in a semi-arid developing country. Therefore, the results of this study suggest a further roll-out of the novel CuveWaters system. The methodology developed and the results of this study demonstrated that taking sanitation users into consideration plays a major role for the planning of an integrated water reuse infrastructure because they are the determinant factor for the amount of available nutrient-rich reuse water. In addition, it could be shown that water reuse and rainwater harvesting systems for the irrigation of small-scale gardens provide a wide range of benefits and can be key to using scarce water resources more efficiently and to contributing to the Sustainable Development Goals.
11
Bayesian Networks are computer-based environmental models that are frequently used to support decision-making under uncertainty. Under data scarce conditions, Bayesian Networks can be developed, parameterized, and run based on expert knowledge only. However, the efficiency of expert-based Bayesian Network modeling is limited by the difficulty in deriving model inputs in the time available during expert workshops. This thesis therefore aimed at developing a simple and robust method for deriving conditional probability tables from expert estimates in a time-efficient way. The design and application of this new elicitation and conversion method is demonstrated using a case study in Xinjiang, Northwest China. The key characteristics of this method are its time-efficiency and the approach to use different conversion tables based on varying levels of confidence. Although the method has its limitations, e.g. it can only be applied for variables with one conditioning variable; it provides the opportunity to support the parameterization of Bayesian Networks which would otherwise remain half-finished due to time constraints. In addition, a case study in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, is used to compare Bayesian Network types and software to improve the presentation clarity of large Bayesian Networks. Both case studies aimed at gaining insights on how to improve the applicability of Bayesian Networks to support environmental management.
12
In the past sixty years, excessive water consumption and dam construction have significantly influenced natural flow regimes and surface freshwater ecosystems throughout China, and thus resulted in serious environmental problems. In order to balance the competing water demands between human and environment and provide knowledge on sustainable water management, assessments on anthropogenic flow alterations and their impacts on aquatic and riparian ecosystems in China are needed.
In this study, the first evaluation on quantitative relationships between anthropogenic flow alterations and ecological responses in eleven river basins and watersheds in China was performed based on the data that could be obtained from published case studies. Quantitative relationships between changes in average annual discharge, seasonal low flow and seasonal high flow and changes in ecological indicators (fish diversity, fish catch and vegetation cover, etc.) were analyzed. The results showed that changes in riparian vegetation cover as well as changes in fish diversity and fish catch were strongly correlated with the changes in flow magnitude (r = 0.77, 0.66), especially with changes in average annual river discharge. In addition, more than half of the variations in vegetation cover could be explained by changes in average annual river discharge (r² = 0.63) and roughly 50 % changes in fish catch in arid and semi-arid region and 60% changes of fish catch in humid region could be related to alterations in average annual river discharge (r² = 0.53, 0.58).
In a supplementary analysis of this study, the first estimation on quantitative relationships between decreases in native fish species richness and anthropogenic flow alterations in 34 river basins and sub-basins in China was conducted. Linear relationships between losses of native fish species and five ecologically relevant flow indicators were analyzed by single and multiple regression models. For the single regression analysis, significant linear relationships were detected for the indicators of long-term average annual discharge (ILTA) and statistical low flow Q90 (IQ90). For the multiple regressions, no indicator other than ILTA has significant relationships with changes in number of fish species mainly due to collinearity. Two conclusions emerged from the analysis: 1) losses of fish species were positively correlated with changes in ILTA in China and 2) indicator of ILTA was dominant over other flow indicators included in this research for the given dataset. These results provide a guideline for the sustainable water resources management in rivers with high risk of fish extinction in China.
09
Agriculture of crops provides more than 85% of the energy in human diet, while also securing income of more than 2.6 billion people. To investigate past, present and future changes in the domain of food security, water resources and water use, nutrient cycles, and land management it is required to know the agricultural land use, in particular which crop grows where and when. The current global land use or land cover data sets are based on remote sensing and agricultural census statistics. In general, these only contain one or very few classes of agricultural land use. When crop-specific areas are given, no distinction of irrigated and rainfed areas is made, whereas it is necessary to distinguish rainfed and irrigated crops, because crop productivity and water use differ significantly between them.
To support global-scale assessments that are sensitive to agricultural land use, the global data set of Monthly Irrigated and Rainfed Crop Areas around the year 2000 (MIRCA2000) was developed by the author. With a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 9.2 km at the equator), MIRCA2000 provides for the first time, spatially explicit irrigated and rainfed crop areas separately for each of the 26 crop classes for each month of the year, and includes multi-cropping. The data set covers all major food crops as well as cotton, while the remaining crops are grouped into three categories (perennial, annual and fodder grasses). Also for the first time, crop calendars on national or sub-national level were consistently linked to annual values of harvested area at the 5 arc-minutes grid cell level, such that monthly growing areas could be computed that are representative for the time period 1998 to 2002.
The downscaling algorithm maximizes the consistency to the grid-based input data of cropland extent [Ramankutty et al., 2008], crop-specific total annual harvested area [Monfreda et al., 2008], and area equipped for irrigation [Siebert et al., 2007]. In addition to the methodology, this dissertation describes differences to other datasets and standard scaling methods, as well as some applications. For quality assessment independent datasets and newly developed quality parameters are used, and scale effects are discussed.
Supplementary Appendices document crop calendars for irrigated and rainfed crops for each of the 402 spatial units (Appendix I), data sources of harvested area and of cropping periods for irrigated crops, country by country (Appendix K), as well as data quality parameters (Appendix L, including spreadsheet files).