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Dysmicoccus brevipes (Cockerell) and Dysmicoccus neobrevipes Beardsley are major pests of pineapples, ornamentals, and vegetable crops in many countries around the world. The potential distribution of these mealybug pests into South Korea remains a prime concern because of their high incidence in interceptions screened during inspection. Hence, these species prompted a modelling effort to assess their potential risk of introduction. Potential risk maps were developed for these pests with the CLIMEX model based on occurrence records under environmental data. The potential distribution of these pests in South Korea in the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s is projected based on the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. Results show that D. brevipes and D. neobrevipes have little potential for invasion in the exterior environment of South Korea due to high cold stress. However, for D. brevipes, three locations in Jejudo were predicted to be marginally suitable for this pest under future climate factors. In that respect, the results of these model predictions could be used to prepare a risk-based surveying program that improves the probability of detecting early D. brevipes and D. neobrevipes populations.
ZooBank registration. urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:CE2390B2-6C56-45E7-B4A7-BE30FEEB3F34
Climate change may alter the distribution and activity of native and alien pathogens that infect trees and, in severe cases, cause tree death. In this study, potential future changes in climate suitability are investigated for three forest pathogens that occur in western North America: the native Arceuthobium tsugense subsp tsugense, hemlock dwarf mistletoe, and two alien invasive species, Dothistroma septosporum, the cause of red band needle blight or Dothistroma needle blight, and Phytophthora ramorum, the cause of sudden oak death or ramorum blight. Specifically, the software CLIMEX is used to calculate Cold-Stress, Heat-Stress, and Dry-Stress indices for each pathogen in 98,224 grid cells in North America. Downscaled climate projections from the general circulation models CGCM1, CSIROMk2, and HadCM3 drive forecasts for 2020, 2050 and 2080. These climate projections are then analyzed to forecast shifts in the geographic extent of abiotic stresses that are severe enough to directly kill pathogen propagules and prevent year-round establishment of these pathogens. Cold stress currently has a major impact on climate suitability for all three pathogens; heat stress is likely to become more significant in the future. I forecast that the geographic extent of cold stress will decline from its current levels by a constant 5% (} 1%) of all grid cells in each 30-yr projection horizon for all three pathogens. Forecasts suggest the extent of heat stress will increase concurrently by 4% (+/- 1%) in each 30-yr projection horizon. Drought stress shows no consistent trend over time. No disproportionate effect of climate change on the two alien invasive pathogens over the native is forecasted. These results suggest that forecasts of future climate suitability for pathogens based on historical climate normals are accurate for less than 30 yrs. Adaptive management strategies in forestry will be needed to respond as these changes unfold.