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Modelling short-term variability in carbon and water exchange in a temperate Scots pine forest
(2015)
The vegetation–atmosphere carbon and water exchange at one particular site can strongly vary from year to year, and understanding this interannual variability in carbon and water exchange (IAVcw) is a critical factor in projecting future ecosystem changes. However, the mechanisms driving this IAVcw are not well understood. We used data on carbon and water fluxes from a multi-year eddy covariance study (1997–2009) in a Dutch Scots pine forest and forced a process-based ecosystem model (Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator; LPJ-GUESS) with local data to, firstly, test whether the model can explain IAVcw and seasonal carbon and water exchange from direct environmental factors only. Initial model runs showed low correlations with estimated annual gross primary productivity (GPP) and annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), while monthly and daily fluxes showed high correlations. The model underestimated GPP and AET during winter and drought events. Secondly, we adapted the temperature inhibition function of photosynthesis to account for the observation that at this particular site, trees continue to assimilate at very low atmospheric temperatures (up to daily averages of −10 °C), resulting in a net carbon sink in winter. While we were able to improve daily and monthly simulations during winter by lowering the modelled minimum temperature threshold for photosynthesis, this did not increase explained IAVcw at the site. Thirdly, we implemented three alternative hypotheses concerning water uptake by plants in order to test which one best corresponds with the data. In particular, we analyse the effects during the 2003 heatwave. These simulations revealed a strong sensitivity of the modelled fluxes during dry and warm conditions, but no single formulation was consistently superior in reproducing the data for all timescales and the overall model–data match for IAVcw could not be improved. Most probably access to deep soil water leads to higher AET and GPP simulated during the heatwave of 2003. We conclude that photosynthesis at lower temperatures than assumed in most models can be important for winter carbon and water fluxes in pine forests. Furthermore, details of the model representations of water uptake, which are often overlooked, need further attention, and deep water access should be treated explicitly.
Background: The invasive temperate mosquito Aedes japonicus japonicus is a potential vector for various infectious diseases and therefore a target of vector control measures. Even though established in Germany, it is unclear whether the species has already reached its full distribution potential. The possible range of the species, its annual population dynamics, the success of vector control measures and future expansions due to climate change still remain poorly understood. While numerous studies on occurrence have been conducted, they used mainly presence data from relatively few locations. In contrast, we used experimental life history data to model the dynamics of a continuous stage-structured population to infer potential seasonal densities and ask whether stable populations are likely to establish over a period of more than one year. In addition, we used climate change models to infer future ranges. Finally, we evaluated the effectiveness of various stage-specific vector control measures.
Results: Aedes j. japonicus has already established stable populations in the southwest and west of Germany. Our models predict a spread of Ae. j. japonicus beyond the currently observed range, but likely not much further eastwards under current climatic conditions. Climate change models, however, will expand this range substantially and higher annual densities can be expected. Applying vector control measures to oviposition, survival of eggs, larvae or adults showed that application of adulticides for 30 days between late spring and early autumn, while ambient temperatures are above 9 °C, can reduce population density by 75%. Continuous application of larvicide showed similar results in population reduction. Most importantly, we showed that with the consequent application of a mixed strategy, it should be possible to significantly reduce or even extinguish existing populations with reasonable effort.
Conclusion: Our study provides valuable insights into the mechanisms concerning the establishment of stable populations in invasive species. In order to minimise the hazard to public health, we recommend vector control measures to be applied in ‘high risk areas’ which are predicted to allow establishment of stable populations to establish.
Modelling glueballs
(2016)
Glueballs are predicted in various theoretical approaches of QCD (most notably lattice QCD), but their experimental verification is still missing. In the low-energy sector some promising candidates for the scalar glueball exist, and some (less clear) candidates for the tensor and pseudoscalar glueballs were also proposed. Yet, for heavier gluonic states there is much work to be done both from the experimental and theoretical points of view. In these proceedings, we briefly review the current status of research of glueballs and discuss future developments.
Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater–surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyperresolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.
In Niedersachsen sind etwa 50 % der forstlichen Standorte in einem Maßstab 1 : 25 000 nach einem relativ komplexen Verfahren kartiert. Jede kartierte Einheit besteht aus Stufen für den Geländewasserhaushalt (WHZ; 43 Stufen), die Nährstoffversorgung (NZ; 16 Stufen) und die Substratund Lagerungsverhältnisse (SLZ; 105 Stufen). Das Ziel der Arbeit war es, WHZ und NZ Stufen der Niedersächsischen forstlichen Standortskartierung für nicht kartierte Gebiete vorherzusagen. Anhand von stratifizierten Zufallsstichproben der WHZ und NZ Stufen aus der Kartierung wurden zwei RandomForest-Modelle kalibriert. Das Modell klassifizierte etwa 77 % der Teststichprobe für die WHZ richtig. Die F1-Werte der einzelnen Stufen reichten dabei von 50–95 %. Falsche Vorhersagen mehrten sich bei Übergängen benachbarter WHZ (z. B. Übergang von Tälern zu Hängen) und bei WHZ mit ähnlichen Geländeeigenschaften, aber Abstufungen in der Wasserversorgung. Einige Modellfehler hängen aber offenbar auch von Unschärfen innerhalb der zugrundeliegenden Kartierung ab. Zusätzlich sagt das Modell im Vergleich zur Feldkartierung viel kleinräumigere Muster vorher, die zwar vom zugrundeliegenden Gelände her nachvollziehbar erscheinen, aber in dieser Genauigkeit nicht im Feld kartiert werden. Etwa 66 % des Testdatensatzes für die NZ wurden richtig klassifiziert. Falsche Vorhersagen traten hier vor allem in direkt benachbarten Stufen der Nährstoffversorgung auf. Unsicherheiten deuten zum einen auf weniger gut geeignete Kovariablen hin, sind möglicherweise aber auch durch zeitliche Änderungen der Bodeneigenschaften selbst sowie durch Ungenauigkeiten in der Kartierung zu erwarten, die wenige Regeln für die Vergabe der Nährstoffzahl vorgibt. Insgesamt beurteilen wir die Modelle als gut geeignet, um sie landesweit anzuwenden. Allerdings ist zu erwarten, dass eine lokale Kalibrierung der Modelle für einzelne Wuchsgebiete die Modellgüte deutlich erhöht. Gleiches kann eine Zusammenfassung ähnlicher Stufen zu waldbaulich relevanten Obergruppen leisten.
In den zurückliegenden Jahren wurden im Landkreis Wittenberg unter Inanspruchnahme von Fördermitteln des Landes zahlreiche "Pflege- und Entwicklungspläne" für Schutzgebiete erstellt. Diese konnten bisher allerdings nur ausnahmsweise und in bescheidenen Ausschnitten umgesetzt werden. Das heißt, dass ihre Umsetzung, wie vielfach auch anderen Orts üblich, im Rahmen meist zeitlich eng begrenzter, einmaliger und punktuell wirksamer Arbeitsbeschaffungsmaßnahmen erfolgte.
Zu den nachhaltigsten Prägungen des architektonischen Entwerfens gehört das vereinfachte Idealszenario, wonach der Prozess der Theorie- und Formbildung eine Kette von Modellierungsstufen sei, die vom Großen zum Kleinen, vom städtebaulichen Entwurf zur baukonstruktiven Detailplanung führen. Nach diesem Szenario steht am Anfang jeder Modellierungsphase eine architektonische Hypothese mit ihrem je spezifischen Gegenstandsversprechen. Als letzte Modellierungsstufe am Ende der Kette liegt das konkrete Bauwerk im Eins-zu-eins-Maßstab vor. Jede Stufe wird in maßstabsgetreuen Zeichnungen und Modellen entwickelt, die ihre Qualität aus der Entsprechung zum späteren Bauwerk gewinnen. In jeder Phase hat der Architekt die Möglichkeit, das bisher Modellierte durch Anschauung zu überprüfen, weiter auszuarbeiten oder zu verwerfen. Auf diese Weise wird der Entwurf von einer Stufe auf die nächste überführt. Das computerbasierte Modellieren scheint diese Idealkette entwurflicher Operationen zu unterbrechen. Unter Zuhilfenahme von 3D-Modellierungssoftware entwickelt der Architekt seinen Entwurf weniger in aufeinander aufbauenden Stufen als vielmehr in einer einzigen Stufe, die theoretisch alle anderen Stufen beinhaltet. Die erdachte Architektur wird nicht in abstrahierenden, voneinander getrennten Zeichnungen dargestellt, sondern in einem einzigen, zweidimensional wiedergegebenen 3D-Modell visualisiert. Digitale Prozessketten heben die tradierte Trennung zwischen intellektuellem Entwurfsakt und materieller Ausführung auf. Während im Analogen die architektonischen Entwurfszeichnungen zunächst in Ausführungspläne und anschließend von den am Bau beteiligten Gewerken in Werkstattpläne transformiert werden, sind im Digitalen Entwurf und Ausführung eng miteinander verschränkt. Die Produktionstechnologien greifen unmittelbar in die Entwurfsverfahren ein: Bei dem 'file to factory' genannten Modellierungsverfahren werden geometrische und technologische Informationen in einem Datenmodell zusammengefasst, das unter Zuhilfenahme computergesteuerter Fertigungsmaschinen (u. a. 3D-Drucker) in ein physisches Modell oder ein Bauteil umgesetzt wird.
Als Biradikale bezeichnet man Moleküle, bei denen der tiefste Singulettzustand und der tiefste Triplett-zustand praktisch miteinander entartet sind. Bisher liegt nur ein Versuch von Hückel 1 vor. für den Schlenkschen Kohlenwasserstoff die Lage der fraglichen Tenne zueinander theoretisch zu bestimmen. Die Hückelsche Rechnung wurde mit Hilfe des "zweiten" Näherungsverfahrens ausgeführt. Das dem genannten Problem wesentlich besser angepaßte "erste" Näherungsverfahren (nach Slater-Hückel-Pauling) ist bisher nicht angewandt worden. Wir haben für zwei Modellmoleküle, und zwar das klassisch formulierbare Butadien (I) und das klassisch nicht formulierbare, also in gewissem Sinne "metachinoide" Trimethylenmethyl (II) CH"=CH-CH=CH2
Motivation: Arabidopsis thaliana is a well-established model system for the analysis of the basic physiological and metabolic pathways of plants. Nevertheless, the system is not yet fully understood, although many mechanisms are described, and information for many processes exists. However, the combination and interpretation of the large amount of biological data remain a big challenge, not only because data sets for metabolic paths are still incomplete. Moreover, they are often inconsistent, because they are coming from different experiments of various scales, regarding, for example, accuracy and/or significance. Here, theoretical modeling is powerful to formulate hypotheses for pathways and the dynamics of the metabolism, even if the biological data are incomplete. To develop reliable mathematical models they have to be proven for consistency. This is still a challenging task because many verification techniques fail already for middle-sized models. Consequently, new methods, like decomposition methods or reduction approaches, are developed to circumvent this problem.
Methods: We present a new semi-quantitative mathematical model of the metabolism of Arabidopsis thaliana. We used the Petri net formalism to express the complex reaction system in a mathematically unique manner. To verify the model for correctness and consistency we applied concepts of network decomposition and network reduction such as transition invariants, common transition pairs, and invariant transition pairs.
Results: We formulated the core metabolism of Arabidopsis thaliana based on recent knowledge from literature, including the Calvin cycle, glycolysis and citric acid cycle, glyoxylate cycle, urea cycle, sucrose synthesis, and the starch metabolism. By applying network decomposition and reduction techniques at steady-state conditions, we suggest a straightforward mathematical modeling process. We demonstrate that potential steady-state pathways exist, which provide the fixed carbon to nearly all parts of the network, especially to the citric acid cycle. There is a close cooperation of important metabolic pathways, e.g., the de novo synthesis of uridine-5-monophosphate, the γ-aminobutyric acid shunt, and the urea cycle. The presented approach extends the established methods for a feasible interpretation of biological network models, in particular of large and complex models.
The thymus hosts the development of a specific type of adaptive immune cells called T cells. T cells orchestrate the adaptive immune response through recognition of antigen by the highly variable T-cell receptor (TCR). T-cell development is a tightly coordinated process comprising lineage commitment, somatic recombination of Tcr gene loci and selection for functional, but non-self-reactive TCRs, all interspersed with massive proliferation and cell death. Thus, the thymus produces a pool of T cells throughout life capable of responding to virtually any exogenous attack while preserving the body through self-tolerance. The thymus has been of considerable interest to both immunologists and theoretical biologists due to its multi-scale quantitative properties, bridging molecular binding, population dynamics and polyclonal repertoire specificity. Here, we review experimental strategies aimed at revealing quantitative and dynamic properties of T-cell development and how they have been implemented in mathematical modeling strategies that were reported to help understand the flexible dynamics of the highly dividing and dying thymic cell populations. Furthermore, we summarize the current challenges to estimating in vivo cellular dynamics and to reaching a next- generation multi-scale picture of T-cell development.