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The modern tontine: an innovative instrument for longevity risk management in an aging society
(2016)
The changing social, financial and regulatory frameworks, such as an increasingly aging society, the current low interest rate environment, as well as the implementation of Solvency II, lead to the search for new product forms for private pension provision. In order to address the various issues, these product forms should reduce or avoid investment guarantees and risks stemming from longevity, still provide reliable insurance benefits and simultaneously take account of the increasing financial resources required for very high ages. In this context, we examine whether a historical concept of insurance, the tontine, entails enough innovative potential to extend and improve the prevailing privately funded pension solutions in a modern way. The tontine basically generates an age-increasing cash flow, which can help to match the increasing financing needs at old ages. However, the tontine generates volatile cash flows, so that - especially in the context of an aging society - the insurance character of the tontine cannot be guaranteed in every situation. We show that partial tontinization of retirement wealth can serve as a reliable supplement to existing pension products.
This paper investigates the effects of a rise in interest rate and lapse risk of endowment life insurance policies on the liquidity and solvency of life insurers. We model the book and market value balance sheet of an average German life insurer, subject to both GAAP and Solvency II regulation, featuring an existing back book of policies and an existing asset allocation calibrated by historical data. The balance sheet is then projected forward under stochastic financial markets. Lapse rates are modeled stochastically and depend on the granted guaranteed rate of return and prevailing level of interest rates. Our results suggest that in the case of a sharp increase in interest rates, policyholders sharply increase lapses and the solvency position of the insurer deteriorates in the short-run. This result is particularly driven by the interaction between a reduction in the market value of assets, large guarantees for existing policies, and a very slow adjustment of asset returns to interest rates. A sharp or gradual rise in interest rates is associated with substantial and persistent liquidity needs, that are particularly driven by lapse rates.
Life insurance convexity
(2023)
Life insurers sell savings contracts with surrender options, which allow policyholders to prematurely receive guaranteed surrender values. These surrender options move toward the money when interest rates rise. Hence, higher interest rates raise surrender rates, as we document empirically by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in monetary policy. Using a calibrated model, we then estimate that surrender options would force insurers to sell up to 2% of their investments during an enduring interest rate rise of 25 bps per year. We show that these fire sales are fueled by surrender value guarantees and insurers’ long-term investments.
Life insurance convexity
(2021)
Life insurers massively sell savings contracts with surrender options which allow policyholders to withdraw a guaranteed amount before maturity. These options move toward the money when interest rates rise. Using data on German life insurers, we estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in interest rates raises surrender rates by 17 basis points. We quantify the resulting liquidity risk in a calibrated model of surrender decisions and insurance cash flows. Simulations predict that surrender options can force insurers to sell up to 3% of their assets, depressing asset prices by 90 basis points. The effect is amplified by the duration of insurers' investments, and its impact on the term structure of interest rates depends on life insurers' investment strategy.
A tontine provides a mortality driven, age-increasing payout structure through the pooling of mortality. Because a tontine does not entail any guarantees, the payout structure of a tontine is determined by the pooling of individual characteristics of tontinists. Therefore, the surrender decision of single tontinists directly affects the remaining members' payouts. Nevertheless, the opportunity to surrender is crucial to the success of a tontine from a regulatory as well as a policyholder perspective. Therefore, this paper derives the fair surrender value of a tontine, first on the basis of expected values, and then incorporates the increasing payout volatility to determine an equitable surrender value. Results show that the surrender decision requires a discount on the fair surrender value as security for the remaining members. The discount intensifies in decreasing tontine size and increasing risk aversion. However, tontinists are less willing to surrender for decreasing tontine size and increasing risk aversion, creating a natural protection against tontine runs stemming from short-term liquidity shocks. Furthermore we argue that a surrender decision based on private information requires a discount on the fair surrender value as well.
Im Jahr 2005 entschied das Bundesverfassungsgericht, dass die bestehenden Regelungen im Versicherungsvertrags- und Versicherungsaufsichtsgesetz zur Überschussbeteiligung in der Lebensversicherung den Anforderungen des Grundgesetzes nicht genügen. Denn sie sicherten die Ansprüche der Versicherten nicht angemessen gegen einseitige Gestaltungsmöglichkeiten der Versicherer ab. Nach dem Urteil änderte der Gesetzgeber die einschlägigen Regelungen, insbesondere erließ die Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstdienstleistungsaufsicht BAFin eine neue Mindestzuführungsverordnung. Der Beitrag untersucht die Rechtslage auf dem Stand von April 2012 daraufhin, ob nun den Anforderungen des Bundesverfassungsgerichts genüge getan wird. Er kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass dies nicht der Fall ist.
Die Untersuchung hat gezeigt, daß der Handel mit Bezugsrechten von Todkranken eine sinnvolle, weil dem Betroffenen helfende, Entwicklung darstellen kann. Gleichwohl darf nicht übersehen werden, daß dieser Möglichkeit der Kapitalanlage ein gewisser moralischer Makel anhaftet. Jedoch konnten grundsätzliche rechtliche Hindernisse nicht aufgezeigt werden. Gleichwohl wurden Beispiele dafür angeführt, wie dieser Handel zu mißbräuchlichen Verhaltensweisen führen kann. Jedenfalls verdeutlicht die Entwicklung der "Viatical Settlements", daß der Kapitalmarkt nach weiterer Vervollständigung strebt und mit diesem Instrument eine alternative Verwertung laufender Kapital-Lebensversicherungsverträge geschaffen, sowie erstmals auch für Risiko-Lebensversicherungsverträge den Zugang zum Kapitalmarkt eröffnet hat. Letztlich bleibt aber die Entscheidung, ob es sich hierbei um ein erfolgsversprechendes Beispiel der Innovationskraft des Kapitalmarktes handelt, in erster Linie den potentiellen Investoren und Anbietern von Rechten aus Lebensversicherungsverträgen vorbehalten. Abschließend sei angemerkt, daß mit Hilfe dieses Handels jedenfalls auf ein gesellschaftliches Problem aufmerksam gemacht wird. Gleichwohl muß die Lösung keineswegs zwingend in dem hier aufgezeichneten Weg einer Etablierung von "Viatical Settlements" liegen. Angesichts der dargestellten moralischen Bedenken wäre es wünschenswert, wenn durch Vertragsgestaltungen, die in dem Endstadium der tödlichen Krankheit eine finanzielle Absicherung des Versicherungsnehmer gewährleisten, Viatical Settlements in Deutschland entbehrlich würden.