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Using a novel dataset, we develop a structural model of the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market between the Arabian Gulf and the Far East. We study how fluctuations in oil tanker rates, oil exports, shipowner profits, and bunker fuel prices are determined by shocks to the supply and demand for oil tankers, to the utilization of tankers, and to the cost of operating tankers, including bunker fuel costs. Our analysis shows that time charter rates are largely unresponsive to tanker cost shocks. In response to higher costs, voyage profits decline, as cost shocks are only partially passed on to round-trip voyage rates. Oil exports from the Arabian Gulf also decline, reflecting lower demand for VLCCs. Positive utilization shocks are associated with higher profits, a slight increase in time charter rates and lower fuel prices and oil export volumes. Tanker supply and tanker demand shocks have persistent effects on time charter rates, round-trip voyage rates, the volume of oil exports, fuel prices, and profits with the expected sign.
Did the Federal Reserves’ Quantitative Easing (QE) in the aftermath of the financial crisis have macroeconomic effects? To answer this question, the authors estimate a large-scale DSGE model over the sample from 1998 to 2020, including data of the Fed’s balance sheet. The authors allow for QE to affect the economy via multiple channels that arise from several financial frictions. Their nonlinear Bayesian likelihood approach fully accounts for the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. They find that between 2009 to 2015, QE increased output by about 1.2 percent. This reflects a net increase in investment of nearly 9 percent, that was accompanied by a 0.7 percent drop in aggregate consumption. Both, government bond and capital asset purchases were effective in improving financing conditions. Especially capital asset purchases significantly facilitated new investment and increased the production capacity. Against the backdrop of a fall in consumption, supply side effects dominated which led to a mild disinflationary effect of about 0.25 percent annually.
Accounting for financial stability: Bank disclosure and loss recognition in the financial crisis
(2020)
This paper examines banks’ disclosures and loss recognition in the financial crisis and identifies several core issues for the link between accounting and financial stability. Our analysis suggests that, going into the financial crisis, banks’ disclosures about relevant risk exposures were relatively sparse. Such disclosures came later after major concerns about banks’ exposures had arisen in markets. Similarly, the recognition of loan losses was relatively slow and delayed relative to prevailing market expectations. Among the possible explanations for this evidence, our analysis suggests that banks’ reporting incentives played a key role, which has important implications for bank supervision and the new expected loss model for loan accounting. We also provide evidence that shielding regulatory capital from accounting losses through prudential filters can dampen banks’ incentives for corrective actions. Overall, our analysis reveals several important challenges if accounting and financial reporting are to contribute to financial stability.
Since 2015, 90 taxa of lichens and 18 lichenicolous fungi have been recorded from Turkey for the first time. Further 707 taxa are new to one or more provinces. In this paper 2 species are new to Turkey. A list of 82 published papers is also provided as a supplement to the bibliography of the 2017 Checklist (John & Türk (2017) of Turkish Lichens.
Advertising arbitrage
(2020)
Arbitrageurs with a short investment horizon gain from accelerating price discovery by advertising their private information. However, advertising many assets may overload investors' attention, reducing the number of informed traders per asset and slowing price discovery. So arbitrageurs optimally concentrate advertising on just a few assets, which they overweight in their portfolios. Unlike classic insiders, advertisers prefer assets with the least noise trading. If several arbitrageurs share information about the same assets, inefficient equilibria can arise, where investors' attention is overloaded and substantial mispricing persists. When they do not share, the overloading of investors' attention is maximal.
We relate time-varying aggregate ambiguity (V-VSTOXX) to individual investor trading. We use the trading records of more than 100,000 individual investors from a large German online brokerage from March 2010 to December 2015. We find that an increase in ambiguity is associated with increased investor activity. It also leads to a reduction in risk-taking which does not reverse over the following days. When ambiguity is high, the effect of sentiment looms larger. Survey evidence reveals that ambiguity averse investors are more prone to ambiguity shocks. Our results are robust to alternative survey-, newspaper- or market-based ambiguity measures.
This article has two aims: it discusses the use and function of a very specific contract clause in Hellenistic time and explores the possibilities and limits to use databases and their automated searches and visualisations as heuristic tools. It is argued, that praxis … kata to diagramma is mainly a regional variety of an executionclause and not connected to the Greek type lawcourts as supposed by Mitteis and Wolff. Graph-databases can help to see different possible decisive features at the same time and show, which connections are more intensive than others, but automated analysis is slowed down and blurred by the lack of categorizing specific to the questions of legal history
This article has two aims: it discusses the use and function of a very specific contract clause in Hellenistic time and explores the possibilities and limits to use databases and their automated searches and visualisations as heuristic tools. It is argued, that praxis … kata to diagramma is mainly a regional variety of an executionclause and not connected to the Greek type lawcourts as supposed by Mitteis and Wolff. Graph-databases can help to see different possible decisive features at the same time and show, which connections are more intensive than others, but automated analysis is slowed down and blurred by the lack of categorizing specific to the questions of legal history
Der Beitrag stellt zunächst dar, dass und warum dem geltenden UWG ein schlüssiger innerer Zusammenhang fehlt, und zwar sowohl im Hinblick auf den Prüfungsaufbau für Ansprüche als auch im Hinblick auf die im Gesetz zum Tragen kommenden materiellen Systematisierungskriterien. Sodann wird ein Vorschlag für einen alternativen Gesetzesaufbau unterbreitet, der am unverändert richtigen Gedanken festhält, wonach Wettbewerbsverhalten in seinen komplexen Auswirkungen auf sämtliche Marktteilnehmer ganzheitlich zu erfassen und zu regulieren ist, während die Orientierung an Gruppen von Marktteilnehmern zwangsläufig zu Abgrenzungsproblemen führt. Folglich bilden im unterbreiteten Vorschlag nicht die Schutzsubjekte des UWG, sondern der Unwertgehalt der geschäftlichen Handlung (Irreführung, Aggressivität, sonstige Wettbewerbsverfälschung) das primäre Systematisierungskriterium. Übergeordnetes Ziel des Vorschlags ist es, die methodengerechte Anwendung des geschriebenen Rechts zu erleichtern und auf diese Weise gesetzesferne Eigenrationalitäten der Praxis einzuhegen.
This article provides a proposal to use IMF Article VIII, Section 2 (b) to establish a binding mechanism on private creditors for a sovereign debt standstill. The proposal builds on the original idea by Whitney Deveboise (1984). Using arguments brought forward by confidential IMF staff papers (1988, 1996) and the IMF General Counsel (1988), this paper shows how an authoritative interpretation of Article VIII, Section 2 (b) can provide protection from litigation to countries at risk of debt distress.
The envisaged mechanism presents several advantages over recent proposals for a binding standstill mechanism, such as the International Developing Country Debt Authority (IDCDA) by UNCTAD and a Central Credit Facility (CFF) by the Bolton Committee. First, this approach would not require the creation of new intergovernmental mechanisms or facilities. Second, the activation of the standstill mechanism can be set in motion by any IMF member country and does not require a modification of its Articles of Agreement. Third, debtor countries acting in good faith under an IMF program would be protected from aggressive litigation strategies from holdout creditors in numerous jurisdictions, including the US and the UK. Fourth, courts in key jurisdictions would avoid becoming overburdened by a cascade of sovereign debt litigation covering creditors and debtors across the globe. Fifth, private creditors would receive uniform treatment and ensure intercreditor equality. Sixth and last, the mechanism would provide additional safeguards to protect emergency multilateral financing provided to tackle Covid-19.