Cognition, optimism, and the formation of age-dependent survival beliefs
- This article investigates the roles of psychological biases for deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities. We model these deviations through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates suggest that implied measures for cognitive weakness increase and relative optimism decrease with age. Direct measures of cognitive weakness and optimism share these trends. Our regression analyses confirm that these factors play strong quantitative roles in the formation of SSBs. Our main finding is that cognitive weakness instead of optimism becomes with age an increasingly important contributor to the well-documented overestimation of survival chances in old age.
Author: | Nils GrevenbrockORCiDGND, Max GroneckORCiDGND, Alexander LudwigORCiDGND, Alexander ZimperORCiDGND |
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URN: | urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-638723 |
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12497 |
ISSN: | 1468-2354 |
Parent Title (English): | International economic review |
Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell |
Place of publication: | Malden, Mass. [u.a.] |
Document Type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of Publication (online): | 2020/12/02 |
Date of first Publication: | 2020/12/02 |
Publishing Institution: | Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg |
Release Date: | 2022/03/15 |
Volume: | 62 |
Issue: | 2 |
Page Number: | 32 |
First Page: | 887 |
Last Page: | 918 |
Note: | Nils Grevenbrock and Alex Ludwig gratefully acknowledge financial support by the Research Center SAFE, funded by the State of Hessen initiative for research LOEWE. |
HeBIS-PPN: | 494704683 |
Institutes: | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / House of Finance (HoF) | |
Dewey Decimal Classification: | 3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft |
Sammlungen: | Universitätspublikationen |
Licence (German): | Creative Commons - Namensnennung 4.0 |