Long-run growth expectations and "global imbalances"
- This paper examines to what extent the build-up of 'global imbalances' since the mid-1990s can be explained in a purely real open-economy DSGE model in which agents' perceptions of long-run growth are based on filtering observed changes in productivity. We show that long-run growth estimates based on filtering U.S. productivity data comove strongly with long-horizon survey expectations. By simulating the model in which agents filter data on U.S. productivity growth, we closely match the U.S. current account evolution. Moreover, with household preferences that control the wealth effect on labor supply, we can generate output movements in line with the data.
| Author: | Mathias Hoffmann, Michael U. Krause, Thomas Laubach |
|---|---|
| URN: | urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-356833 |
| URL: | http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Downloads/Publications/Discussion_Paper_1/2011/2011_02_11_dkp_01.pdf |
| ISBN: | 978-3–86558–683–4 |
| ISBN: | 978-3–86558–682–7 |
| Parent Title (English): | Deutsche Bundesbank: [Discussion paper / 1] Discussion paper : Ser. 1, Economic studies ; No. 2011,01 |
| Publisher: | Deutsche Bundesbank |
| Place of publication: | Frankfurt am Main |
| Document Type: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Year of Completion: | 2011 |
| Year of first Publication: | 2011 |
| Publishing Institution: | Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg |
| Release Date: | 2014/12/01 |
| Tag: | Current Account; Kalman filter; News and Business Cycles; Open Economy DSGE Models; Real-time Data; Trend Growth |
| GND Keyword: | USA; Wirtschaftswachstum; Produktivität; Adaptive Erwartung; Erwartungsbildung; Konjunktur; Umfrage; Leistungsbilanz; Außenwirtschaftliches Gleichgewicht; Zahlungsbilanzausgleich; Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewicht; Dynamisches Gleichgewicht; Offene Volkswirtschaft |
| Volume: | 48 |
| Note: | Reproduction permitted only if source is stated. |
| HeBIS-PPN: | 352816511 |
| Institutes: | Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| Dewey Decimal Classification: | 3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft |
| Sammlungen: | Universitätspublikationen |
| Licence (German): |  Deutsches Urheberrecht |
