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Introduction: In the development of bio-enabling formulations, innovative in vivo predictive tools to understand and predict the in vivo performance of such formulations are needed. Etravirine, a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, is currently marketed as an amorphous solid dispersion (Intelence® tablets). The aims of this study were 1) to investigate and discuss the advantages of using biorelevant in vitro setups in simulating the in vivo performance of Intelence® 100 mg and 200 mg tablets, in the fed state, 2) to build a Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model by combining experimental data and literature information with the commercially available in silico software Simcyp® Simulator V17.1 (Certara UK Ltd.), and 3) to discuss the challenges when predicting the in vivo performance of an amorphous solid dispersion and identify the parameters which influence the pharmacokinetics of etravirine most.
Methods: Solubility, dissolution and transfer experiments were performed in various biorelevant media simulating the fasted and fed state environment in the gastrointestinal tract. An in silico PBPK model for healthy volunteers was developed in the Simcyp® Simulator, using in vitro results and data available from the literature as input. The impact of pre- and post-absorptive parameters on the pharmacokinetics of etravirine was investigated using simulations of various scenarios.
Results: In vitro experiments indicated a large effect of naturally occurring solubilizing agents on the solubility of etravirine. Interestingly, supersaturated concentrations of etravirine were observed over the entire duration of dissolution experiments on Intelence® tablets. Coupling the in vitro results with the PBPK model provided the opportunity to investigate two possible absorption scenarios, i.e. with or without implementation of precipitation. The results from the simulations suggested that a scenario in which etravirine does not precipitate is more representative of the in vivo data. On the post-absorptive side, it appears that the concentration dependency of the unbound fraction of etravirine in plasma has a significant effect on etravirine pharmacokinetics.
Conclusions: The present study underlines the importance of combining in vitro and in silico biopharmaceutical tools to advance our knowledge in the field of bio-enabling formulations. Future studies on other bio-enabling formulations can be used to further explore this approach to support rational formulation design as well as robust prediction of clinical outcomes.
As the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic continues, serological assays are urgently needed for rapid diagnosis, contact tracing and for epidemiological studies. So far, there is little data on how commercially available tests perform with real patient samples and if detected IgG antibodies provide protective immunity. Focusing on IgG antibodies, we demonstrate the performance of two ELISA assays (Euroimmun SARS-CoV-2 IgG & Vircell COVID-19 ELISA IgG) in comparison to one lateral flow assay ((LFA) FaStep COVID-19 IgG/IgM Rapid Test Device) and two in-house developed assays (immunofluorescence assay (IFA) and plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT)). We tested follow up serum/plasma samples of individuals PCR-diagnosed with COVID-19. Most of the SARS-CoV-2 samples were from individuals with moderate to severe clinical course, who required an in-patient hospital stay.
For all examined assays, the sensitivity ranged from 58.8 to 76.5% for the early phase of infection (days 5-9) and from 93.8 to 100% for the later period (days 10-18) after PCR-diagnosed with COVID-19. With exception of one sample, all positive tested samples in the analysed cohort, using the commercially available assays examined (including the in-house developed IFA), demonstrated neutralizing (protective) properties in the PRNT, indicating a potential protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Regarding specificity, there was evidence that samples of endemic coronavirus (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E) and Epstein Barr virus (EBV) infected individuals cross-reacted in the ELISA assays and IFA, in one case generating a false positive result (may giving a false sense of security). This need to be further investigated.
Survivin is a drug target and the survivin suppressant YM155 a drug candidate for high-risk neuroblastoma. Findings from one YM155-adapted subline of the neuroblastoma cell line UKF-NB-3 had suggested that increased ABCB1 (mediates YM155 efflux) levels, decreased SLC35F2 (mediates YM155 uptake) levels, decreased survivin levels, and TP53 mutations indicate YM155 resistance. Here, the investigation of ten additional YM155-adapted UKF-NB-3 sublines only confirmed the roles of ABCB1 and SLC35F2. However, cellular ABCB1 and SLC35F2 levels did not indicate YM155 sensitivity in YM155-naïve cells, as indicated by drug response data derived from the Cancer Therapeutics Response Portal (CTRP) and the Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer (GDSC) databases. Moreover, the resistant sublines were characterised by a remarkable heterogeneity. Only seven sublines developed on-target resistance as indicated by resistance to RNAi-mediated survivin depletion. The sublines also varied in their response to other anti-cancer drugs. In conclusion, cancer cell populations of limited intrinsic heterogeneity can develop various resistance phenotypes in response to treatment. Therefore, individualised therapies will require monitoring of cancer cell evolution in response to treatment. Moreover, biomarkers can indicate resistance formation in the acquired resistance setting, even when they are not predictive in the intrinsic resistance setting.
The survivin suppressant YM155 is a drug candidate for neuroblastoma. Here, we tested YM155 in 101 neuroblastoma cell lines (19 parental cell lines, 82 drug-adapted sublines). 77 cell lines displayed YM155 IC50s in the range of clinical YM155 concentrations. ABCB1 was an important determinant of YM155 resistance. The activity of the ABCB1 inhibitor zosuquidar ranged from being similar to that of the structurally different ABCB1 inhibitor verapamil to being 65-fold higher. ABCB1 sequence variations may be responsible for this, suggesting that the design of variant-specific ABCB1 inhibitors may be possible. Further, we showed that ABCC1 confers YM155 resistance. Previously, p53 depletion had resulted in decreased YM155 sensitivity. However, TP53-mutant cells were not generally less sensitive to YM155 than TP53 wild-type cells in this study. Finally, YM155 cross-resistance profiles differed between cells adapted to drugs as similar as cisplatin and carboplatin. In conclusion, the large cell line panel was necessary to reveal an unanticipated complexity of the YM155 response in neuroblastoma cell lines with acquired drug resistance. Novel findings include that ABCC1 mediates YM155 resistance and that YM155 cross-resistance profiles differ between cell lines adapted to drugs as similar as cisplatin and carboplatin.
SARS-CoV-2 is the causative agent of COVID-19. Severe COVID-19 disease has been associated with disseminated intravascular coagulation and thrombosis, but the mechanisms underlying COVID-19-related coagulopathy remain unknown. Since the risk of severe COVID-19 disease is higher in males than in females and increases with age, we combined proteomics data from SARS-CoV-2-infected cells with human gene expression data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) database to identify gene products involved in coagulation that change with age, differ in their levels between females and males, and are regulated in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection. This resulted in the identification of transferrin as a candidate coagulation promoter, whose levels increases with age and are higher in males than in females and that is increased upon SARS-CoV-2 infection. A systematic investigation of gene products associated with the GO term “blood coagulation” did not reveal further high confidence candidates, which are likely to contribute to COVID-19-related coagulopathy. In conclusion, the role of transferrin should be considered in the course of COVID-19 disease and further examined in ongoing clinic-pathological investigations.
It becomes more and more obvious that deregulation of host metabolism play an important role in SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis with implication for increased risk of severe course of COVID-19. Furthermore, it is expected that COVID-19 patients recovered from severe disease may experience long-term metabolic disorders. Thereby understanding the consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection on host metabolism can facilitate efforts for effective treatment option. We have previously shown that SARS-CoV-2-infected cells undergo a shift towards glycolysis and that 2-deoxy-D-glucose (2DG) inhibits SARS-CoV-2 replication. Here, we show that also pentose phosphate pathway (PPP) is remarkably deregulated. Since PPP supplies ribonucleotides for SARS-CoV-2 replication, this could represent an attractive target for an intervention. On that account, we employed the transketolase inhibitor benfooxythiamine and showed dose-dependent inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 in non-toxic concentrations. Importantly, the antiviral efficacy of benfooxythiamine was further increased in combination with 2DG.
SARS-CoV-2 is a novel coronavirus currently causing a pandemic. We show that the majority of amino acid positions, which differ between SARS-CoV-2 and the closely related SARS-CoV, are differentially conserved suggesting differences in biological behaviour. In agreement, novel cell culture models revealed differences between the tropism of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV. Moreover, cellular ACE2 (SARS-CoV-2 receptor) and TMPRSS2 (enables virus entry via S protein cleavage) levels did not reliably indicate cell susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV further differed in their drug sensitivity profiles. Thus, only drug testing using SARS-CoV-2 reliably identifies therapy candidates. Therapeutic concentrations of the approved protease inhibitor aprotinin displayed anti-SARS-CoV-2 activity. The efficacy of aprotinin and of remdesivir (currently under clinical investigation against SARS-CoV-2) were further enhanced by therapeutic concentrations of the proton pump inhibitor omeprazole (aprotinin 2.7-fold, remdesivir 10-fold). Hence, our study has also identified anti-SARS-CoV-2 therapy candidates that can be readily tested in patients.
SARS-CoV-2 infections are rapidly spreading around the globe. The rapid development of therapies is of major importance. However, our lack of understanding of the molecular processes and host cell signaling events underlying SARS-CoV-2 infection hinder therapy development. We employed a SARS-CoV-2 infection system in permissible human cells to study signaling changes by phospho-proteomics. We identified viral protein phosphorylation and defined phosphorylation-driven host cell signaling changes upon infection. Growth factor receptor (GFR) signaling and downstream pathways were activated. Drug-protein network analyses revealed GFR signaling as key pathway targetable by approved drugs. Inhibition of GFR downstream signaling by five compounds prevented SARS-CoV-2 replication in cells, assessed by cytopathic effect, viral dsRNA production, and viral RNA release into the supernatant. This study describes host cell signaling events upon SARS-CoV-2 infection and reveals GFR signaling as central pathway essential for SARS-CoV-2 replication. It provides with novel strategies for COVID-19 treatment.
Background: Ever decreasing costs along with advances in sequencing and library preparation technologies enable even small research groups to generate chromosome-level assemblies today. Here we report the generation of an improved chromosome-level assembly for the Siamese fighting fish (Betta splendens) that was carried out during a practical university Master’s course. The Siamese fighting fish is a popular aquarium fish and an emerging model species for research on aggressive behaviour. We updated the current genome assembly by generating a new long-read nanopore-based assembly with subsequent scaffolding to chromosome-level using previously published HiC data.
Findings: The use of nanopore-based long-read data sequenced on a MinION platform (Oxford Nanopore Technologies) allowed us to generate a baseline assembly of only 1,276 contigs with a contig N50 of 2.1 Mbp, and a total length of 441 Mbp. Scaffolding using previously published HiC data resulted in 109 scaffolds with a scaffold N50 of 20.7 Mbp. More than 99% of the assembly is comprised in 21 scaffolds. The assembly showed the presence of 95.8% complete BUSCO genes from the Actinopterygii dataset indicating a high quality of the assembly.
Conclusion: We present an improved full chromosome-level assembly of the Siamese fighting fish generated during a university Master’s course. The use of ~35× long-read nanopore data drastically improved the baseline assembly in terms of continuity. We show that relatively in-expensive high-throughput sequencing technologies such as the long-read MinION sequencing platform can be used in educational settings allowing the students to gain practical skills in modern genomics and generate high quality results that benefit downstream research projects.
Decades of work have demonstrated that mRNAs are localized and translated within neuronal dendrites and axons to provide proteins for remodeling and maintaining growth cones or synapses. It remains unknown, however, whether specific forms of plasticity differentially regulate the dynamics and translation of individual mRNA species. To address these issues, we targeted three individual synaptically-localized mRNAs, CamkIIa, Beta actin, Psd95, and used molecular beacons to track endogenous mRNA movements and reporters and Crispr-Cas9 gene editing to track their translation. We found widespread alterations in mRNA behavior during two forms of synaptic plasticity, long-term potentiation (LTP) and depression (LTD). Changes in mRNA dynamics following plasticity resulted in an enrichment of mRNA in the vicinity of dendritic spines. Both the reporters and tagging of endogenous proteins revealed the transcript-specific stimulation of protein synthesis following LTP or LTD. The plasticity-induced enrichment of mRNA near synapses could be uncoupled from its translational status. The enrichment of mRNA in the proximity of spines allows for localized signaling pathways to decode plasticity milieus and stimulate a specific translational profile, resulting in a customized remodeling of the synaptic proteome.
Most sRNA biogenesis mechanisms involve either RNAseIII cleavage or ping-pong amplification by different Piwi proteins harboring slicer activity. Here, we follow the question why the mechanism of transgene-induced silencing in the ciliate Paramecium needs both Dicer activity and two Ptiwi proteins. This pathway involves primary siRNAs produced from non-translatable transgenes and secondary siRNAs from endogenous remote loci. Our data does not indicate any signatures from ping-pong amplification but Dicer cleavage of long dsRNA. We show that Ptiwi13 and 14 have different preferences for primary and secondary siRNAs but do not load them mutually exclusive. Both Piwis enrich for antisense RNAs and Ptiwi14 loaded siRNAs show a 5′-U signature. Both Ptiwis show in addition a general preference for Uridine-rich sRNAs along the entire sRNA length. Our data indicates both Ptiwis and 2’-O-methylation to contribute to strand selection of Dicer cleaved siRNAs. This unexpected function of two distinct vegetative Piwis extends the increasing knowledge of the diversity of Piwi functions in diverse silencing pathways. As both Ptiwis show differential subcellular localisation, Ptiwi13 in the cytoplasm and Ptiwi14 in the vegetative macronucleus, we conclude that cytosolic and nuclear silencing factors are necessary for efficient chromatin silencing.
Complexome profiling is an emerging ‘omics approach that systematically interrogates the composition of protein complexes (the complexome) of a sample, by combining biochemical separation of native protein complexes with mass-spectrometry based quantitation proteomics. The resulting fractionation profiles hold comprehensive information on the abundance and composition of the complexome, and have a high potential for reuse by experimental and computational researchers. However, the lack of a central resource that provides access to these data, reported with adequate descriptions and an analysis tool, has limited their reuse. Therefore, we established the ComplexomE profiling DAta Resource (CEDAR, www3.cmbi.umcn.nl/cedar/), an openly accessible database for depositing and exploring mass spectrometry data from complexome profiling studies. Compatibility and reusability of the data is ensured by a standardized data and reporting format containing the “minimum information required for a complexome profiling experiment” (MIACE). The data can be accessed through a user-friendly web interface, as well as programmatically using the REST API portal. Additionally, all complexome profiles available on CEDAR can be inspected directly on the website with the profile viewer tool that allows the detection of correlated profiles and inference of potential complexes. In conclusion, CEDAR is a unique, growing and invaluable resource for the study of protein complex composition and dynamics across biological systems.
Introns of human transfer RNA precursors (pre-tRNAs) are excised by the tRNA splicing endonuclease TSEN in complex with the RNA kinase CLP1. Mutations in TSEN/CLP1 occur in patients with pontocerebellar hypoplasia (PCH), however, their role in the disease is unclear. Here, we show that intron excision is catalyzed by tetrameric TSEN assembled from inactive heterodimers independently of CLP1. Splice site recognition involves the mature domain and the anticodon-intron base pair of pre-tRNAs. The 2.1-Å resolution X-ray crystal structure of a TSEN15–34 heterodimer and differential scanning fluorimetry analyses show that PCH mutations cause thermal destabilization. While endonuclease activity in recombinant mutant TSEN is unaltered, we observe assembly defects and reduced pre-tRNA cleavage activity resulting in an imbalanced pre-tRNA pool in PCH patient-derived fibroblasts. Our work defines the molecular principles of intron excision in humans and provides evidence that modulation of TSEN stability may contribute to PCH phenotypes.
Genome-wide CRISPR screens are becoming more widespread and allow the simultaneous interrogation of thousands of genomic regions. Although recent progress has been made in the analysis of CRISPR screens, it is still an open problem how to interpret CRISPR mutations in non-coding regions of the genome. Most of the tools concentrate on the interpretation of mutations introduced in gene coding regions. We introduce a computational pipeline that uses epigenomic information about regulatory elements for the interpretation of CRISPR mutations in non-coding regions. We illustrate our approach on the analysis of a genome-wide CRISPR screen in hTERT-RPE-1 cells and reveal novel regulatory elements that mediate chemoresistance against doxorubicin in these cells. We infer links to established and to novel chemoresistance genes. Our approach is general and can be applied on any cell type and with different CRISPR enzymes.
Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity and impacts on species distributions and abundances are already evident. Heterogenous responses of species due to varying abiotic tolerances and dispersal abilities have the potential to further amplify or ameliorate these impacts through changes in species assemblages. Here we investigate the impacts of climate change on terrestrial bird distributions and, subsequently, on species richness as well as on different aspects of phylogenetic diversity of species assemblages across the globe. We go beyond previous work by disentangling the potential impacts on assemblage phylogenetic diversity of species gains vs. losses under climate change and compare the projected impacts to randomized assemblage changes.
We show that climate change might not only affect species numbers and composition of global species assemblages but could also have profound impacts on assemblage phylogenetic diversity, which, across extensive areas, differ significantly from random changes. Both the projected impacts on phylogenetic diversity and on phylogenetic structure vary greatly across the globe. Projected increases in the evolutionary history contained within species assemblages, associated with either increasing phylogenetic diversification or clustering, are most frequent at high northern latitudes. By contrast, projected declines in evolutionary history, associated with increasing phylogenetic over-dispersion or homogenisation, are projected across all continents.
The projected widespread changes in the phylogenetic structure of species assemblages show that changes in species richness do not fully reflect the potential threat from climate change to ecosystems. Our results indicate that the most severe changes to the phylogenetic diversity and structure of species assemblages are likely to be caused by species range shifts rather than range reductions and extinctions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering diverse measures in climate impact assessments and the value of integrating species-specific responses into assessments of entire community changes.
Of the 16 non-structural proteins (Nsps) encoded by SARS CoV-2, Nsp3 is the largest and plays important roles in the viral life cycle. Being a large, multidomain, transmembrane protein, Nsp3 has been the most challenging Nsp to characterize. Encoded within Nsp3 is the papain-like protease PLpro domain that cleaves not only the viral protein but also polyubiquitin and the ubiquitin-like modifier ISG15 from host cells. We here compare the interactors of PLpro and Nsp3 and find a largely overlapping interactome. Intriguingly, we find that near full length Nsp3 is a more active protease compared to the minimal catalytic domain of PLpro. Using a MALDI-TOF based assay, we screen 1971 approved clinical compounds and identify five compounds that inhibit PLpro with IC50s in the low micromolar range but showed cross reactivity with other human deubiquitinases and had no significant antiviral activity in cellular SARS-CoV-2 infection assays. We therefore looked for alternative methods to block PLpro activity and engineered competitive nanobodies that bind to PLpro at the substrate binding site with nanomolar affinity thus inhibiting the enzyme. Our work highlights the importance of studying Nsp3 and provides tools and valuable insights to investigate Nsp3 biology during the viral infection cycle.
SARS-CoV-2 and stroke characteristics: a report from the Multinational COVID-19 Stroke Study Group
(2020)
Background: Stroke is reported as a consequence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, there is a lack of regarding comprehensive stroke phenotype and characteristics
Methods: We conducted a multinational observational study on features of consecutive acute ischemic stroke (AIS), intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), and cerebral venous or sinus thrombosis (CVST) among SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. We further investigated the association of demographics, clinical data, geographical regions, and countries’ health expenditure among AIS patients with the risk of large vessel occlusion (LVO), stroke severity as measured by National Institute of Health stroke scale (NIHSS), and stroke subtype as measured by the TOAST criteria. Additionally, we applied unsupervised machine learning algorithms to uncover possible similarities among stroke patients.
Results: Among the 136 tertiary centers of 32 countries who participated in this study, 71 centers from 17 countries had at least one eligible stroke patient. Out of 432 patients included, 323(74.8%) had AIS, 91(21.1%) ICH, and 18(4.2%) CVST. Among 23 patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage, 16(69.5%) had no evidence of aneurysm. A total of 183(42.4%) patients were women, 104(24.1%) patients were younger than 55 years, and 105(24.4%) patients had no identifiable vascular risk factors. Among 380 patients who had known interval onset of the SARS-CoV-2 and stroke, 144(37.8%) presented to the hospital with chief complaints of stroke-related symptoms, with asymptomatic or undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Among AIS patients 44.5% had LVO; 10% had small artery occlusion according to the TOAST criteria. We observed a lower median NIHSS (8[3-17], versus 11 [5-17]; p=0.02) and higher rate of mechanical thrombectomy (12.4% versus 2%; p<0.001) in countries with middle to high-health expenditure when compared to countries with lower health expenditure. The unsupervised machine learning identified 4 subgroups, with a relatively large group with no or limited comorbidities.
Conclusions: We observed a relatively high number of young, and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections among stroke patients. Traditional vascular risk factors were absent among a relatively large cohort of patients. Among hospitalized patients, the stroke severity was lower and rate of mechanical thrombectomy was higher among countries with middle to high-health expenditure.
Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through virus-containing aerosol particles has been established as an important pathway for Covid-19 infection. Suitable measures to prevent such infections are imperative, especially in situations when a high number of persons convene in closed rooms. Here we tested the efficiency and practicability of operating four air purifiers equipped with HEPA filters in a high school classroom while regular classes were taking place. We monitored the aerosol number concentration for particles > 3 nm at two locations in the room, the aerosol size distribution in the range from 10 nm to 10 µm, PM10 and CO2 concentration. For comparison, we performed similar measurements in a neighboring classroom without purifiers. In times when classes were conducted with windows and door closed, the aerosol concentration was reduced by more than 90 % within less than 30 minutes when running the purifiers (air exchange rate 5.5 h-1). The reduction was homogeneous throughout the room and for all particle sizes. The measurements are supplemented by a calculation estimating the maximum concentration levels of virus-containing aerosol from a highly contagious person speaking in a closed room with and without air purifiers. Measurements and calculation demonstrate that air purifiers potentially represent a well-suited measure to reduce the risks of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 substantially. Staying for two hours in a closed room with a highly infective person, we estimate that the inhaled dose is reduced by a factor of six when using air purifiers with a total air exchange rate of 5.7 h-1.
Background: Nations are imposing unprecedented measures at large-scale to contain the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Recent studies indicate that measures such as lockdowns may have slowed down the growth of COVID-19. However, in addition to substantial economic and social costs, these measures also limit the exposure to Ultraviolet-B radiation (UVB). Emerging observational evidence indicate the protective role of UVB and vitamin D in reducing the severity and mortality of COVID-19 deaths. In this observational study, we empirically outline the independent protective roles of lockdown and UVB exposure as measured by ultraviolet index (UVI), whilst also examining whether the severity of lockdown is associated with a reduction in the protective role.
Methods: We apply a log-linear fixed-effects model to a panel dataset of 162 countries over a period of 108 days (n=6049). We use the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths as the dependent variable and isolate the mitigating influence of lockdown severity on the association between UVI and growth-rates of COVID-19 deaths from time-constant country-specific and time-varying country-specific potentially confounding factors.
Findings: After controlling for time-constant and time-varying factors, we find that a unit increase in UVI and lockdown severity are independently associated with 17% [-1.8 percentage points] and 77% [-7.9 percentage points] decline in COVID-19 deaths growth rate, indicating their respective protective roles. However, the widely utilized and least severe lockdown (recommendation to not leave the house) already fully mitigates the protective role of UVI by 95% [1.8 percentage points] indicating its downside.
Interpretation: We find that lockdown severity and UVI are independently associated with a slowdown in the daily growth rates of cumulative COVID-19 deaths. However, we find consistent evidence that increase in lockdown severity is associated with a significant reduction in the protective role of UVI in reducing COVID-19 deaths. Our results suggest that lockdowns in conjunction with adequate exposure to UVB radiation might have provided even more substantial health benefits, than lockdowns alone. For example, we estimate that there would be 21% fewer deaths on average with sufficient UVB exposure while people were recommended not to leave their house. Therefore, our study outlines the importance of considering UVB exposure, especially while implementing lockdowns and may support policy decision making in countries imposing such measures.
Competing Interest Statement: RKM is a PhD researcher at Goethe University, Frankfurt. He also is an employee of a multinational chemical company involved in vitamin D business and holds the shares of the company. This study is intended to contribute to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis and is not sponsored by his company. All other authors declare no competing interests. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not represent that of any organization. No other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.
The clinical and economic value of a successful shutdown during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany
(2020)
Background and aim A shutdown of businesses enacted during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic can serve different goals, e.g., preventing the intensive care unit (ICU) capacity from being overwhelmed (‘flattening the curve’) or keeping the reproduction number substantially below one (‘squashing the curve’). The aim of this study was to determine the clinical and economic value of a shutdown that is successful in ‘flattening’ or ‘squashing the curve’ in Germany.
Methods In the base case, the study compared a successful shutdown to a worst-case scenario with no ICU capacity left to treat COVID-19 patients. To this end, a decision model was developed using, e.g., information on age-specific fatality rates, ICU outcomes, and the herd protection threshold. The value of an additional life year was borrowed from new, innovative oncological drugs, as cancer reflects a condition with a similar morbidity and mortality burden in the general population in the short term as COVID-19.
Results A shutdown that is successful in ‘flattening the curve’ is projected to yield an average health gain between 0.02 and 0.08 life years (0.2 to 0.9 months) per capita in the German population. The corresponding economic value ranges between €1543 and €8027 per capita or, extrapolated to the total population, 4% to 19% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019. A shutdown that is successful in ‘squashing the curve’ is expected to yield a minimum health gain of 0.10 life years (1.2 months) per capita, corresponding to 24% of the GDP in 2019. Results are particularly sensitive to mortality data and the prevalence of undetected cases.
Conclusion A successful shutdown is forecasted to yield a considerable gain in life years in the German population. Nevertheless, questions around the affordability and underfunding of other parts of the healthcare system emerge.