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This paper employs a multi-country large scale Overlapping Generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk to quantify the impact of the demographic transition towards an older population in industrialized countries on world-wide rates of return, international capital flows and the distribution of wealth and welfare in the OECD. We find that for the U.S. as an open economy, rates of return are predicted to decline by 86 basis points between 2005 and 2080 and wages increase by about 4.1%. If the U.S. were a closed economy, rates of return would decline and wages increase by less. This is due to the fact that other regions in the OECD will age even more rapidly; therefore the U.S. is “importing” the more severe demographic transition from the rest of the OECD in the form of larger factor price changes. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young agents with little assets and currently low labor productivity gain, up to 1% in consumption, from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to lose, because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital. Klassifizierung: E17, E25, D33, C68
We present measurements of exclusive ensuremathπ+,0 and η production in pp reactions at 1.25GeV and 2.2GeV beam kinetic energy in hadron and dielectron channels. In the case of π+ and π0 , high-statistics invariant-mass and angular distributions are obtained within the HADES acceptance as well as acceptance-corrected distributions, which are compared to a resonance model. The sensitivity of the data to the yield and production angular distribution of Δ (1232) and higher-lying baryon resonances is shown, and an improved parameterization is proposed. The extracted cross-sections are of special interest in the case of pp → pp η , since controversial data exist at 2.0GeV; we find \ensuremathσ=0.142±0.022 mb. Using the dielectron channels, the π0 and η Dalitz decay signals are reconstructed with yields fully consistent with the hadronic channels. The electron invariant masses and acceptance-corrected helicity angle distributions are found in good agreement with model predictions.
The knowledge of baryonic resonance properties and production cross sections plays an important role for the extraction and understanding of medium modifications of mesons in hot and/or dense nuclear matter. We present and discuss systematics on dielectron and strangeness production obtained with HADES on p+p, p+A and A+A collisions in the few GeV energy regime with respect to these resonances.
New results on the differential cross section in deuteron-proton elastic scattering are obtained at the deuteron kinetic energy of 2.5 GeV with the HADES spectrometer. The angular range of 69° – 125° in the center of mass system is covered. The obtained results are compared with the relativistic multiple scattering model calculation using the CD-Bonn deuteron wave function. The data at fixed scattering angles in the c.m. are in qualitative agreement with the constituent counting rules prediction.
We develop a model of managerial compensation structure and asset risk choice. The model provides predictions about how inside debt features affect the relation between credit spreads and compensation components. First, inside debt reduces credit spreads only if it is unsecured. Second, inside debt exerts important indirect effects on the role of equity incentives: When inside debt is large and unsecured, equity incentives increase credit spreads; When inside debt is small or secured, this effect is weakened or reversed. We test our model on a sample of U.S. public firms with traded CDS contracts, finding evidence supportive of our predictions. To alleviate endogeneity concerns, we also show that our results are robust to using an instrumental variable approach.
When markets are incomplete, social security can partially insure against idiosyncratic and aggregate risks. We incorporate both risks into an analytically tractable model with two overlapping generations and demonstrate that they interact over the life-cycle. The interactions appear even though the two risks are orthogonal and they amplify the welfare consequences of introducing social security. On the one hand, the interactions increase the welfare benefits from insurance. On the other hand, they can in- or decrease the welfare costs from crowding out of capital formation. This ambiguous effect on crowding out means that the net effect of these two channels is positive, hence the interactions of risks increase the total welfare benefits of social security.
This paper investigates extensions of the method of endogenous gridpoints (ENDGM) introduced by Carroll (2006) to higher dimensions with more than one continuous endogenous state variable. We compare three different categories of algorithms: (i) the conventional method with exogenous grids (EXOGM), (ii) the pure method of endogenous gridpoints (ENDGM) and (iii) a hybrid method (HYBGM). ENDGM comes along with Delaunay interpolation on irregular grids. Comparison of methods is done by evaluating speed and accuracy. We find that HYBGM and ENDGM both dominate EXOGM. In an infinite horizon model, ENDGM also always dominates HYBGM. In a finite horizon model, the choice between HYBGM and ENDGM depends on the number of gridpoints in each dimension. With less than 150 gridpoints in each dimension ENDGM is faster than HYBGM, and vice versa. For a standard choice of 25 to 50 gridpoints in each dimension, ENDGM is 1.4 to 1.7 times faster than HYBGM in the finite horizon version and 2.4 to 2.5 times faster in the infinite horizon version of the model.
On average, "young" people underestimate whereas "old" people overestimate their chances to survive into the future. We adopt a Bayesian learning model of ambiguous survival beliefs which replicates these patterns. The model is embedded within a non-expected utility model of life-cycle consumption and saving. Our analysis shows that agents with ambiguous survival beliefs (i) save less than originally planned, (ii) exhibit undersaving at younger ages, and (iii) hold larger amounts of assets in old age than their rational expectations counterparts who correctly assess their survival probabilities. Our ambiguity-driven model therefore simultaneously accounts for three important empirical findings on household saving behavior.
We present the results of two-pion production in tagged quasi-free np collisions at a deutron incident beam energy of 1.25 GeV/c measured with the High-Acceptance Di-Electron Spectrometer (HADES) installed at GSI. The specific acceptance of HADES allowed for the first time to obtain high-precision data on π+π− and π−π0 production in np collisions in a region corresponding to large transverse momenta of the secondary particles. The obtained differential cross section data provide strong constraints on the production mechanisms and on the various baryon resonance contributions (∆∆, N(1440), N(1520), ∆(1600)). The invariant mass and angular distributions from the np → npπ+π −and np → ppπ−π0 reactions are compared with different theoretical model predictions.
Many QCD based and phenomenological models predict changes of hadron properties in a strongly interacting environment. The results of these models differ significantly and the experimental determination of hadron properties in nuclear matter is essential. In this paper we present a review of selected physics results obtained at GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung GmbH by HADES (High-Acceptance Di-Electron Spectrometer). The e+e− pair emission measured for proton and heavy-ion induced collisions is reported together with results on strangeness production. The future HADES activities at the planned FAIR facility are also discussed.