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National greenhouse gas inventories (GHGIs) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGIs. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emission Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high global warming potentials (GWPs), and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication, its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions from 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009–2012 shows a drop of 35 %, indicating progress toward the target of a 79 % decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008–2018) are on average 73 (62–83) % of, or 4.3 (2.7–5.9) Tg CO2-eq yr−1 lower than, the total HFC emission estimates from the UK GHGI. There are also significant discrepancies between the two estimates for the individual HFCs.
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (GHGI) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGI. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emissions Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions in the since 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009–2012 shows a drop of 35%, indicating progress toward the target of a 79% decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008–2018) are on average 73 (62–83)% of, or 4.3 (2.7–5.9) Tg CO2-eq yr−1 lower than, the total HFC emission estimates from the UK GHGI inventory. There are also significant discrepancies between the two estimates for the individual HFCs.
Production and use of many synthetic halogenated trace gases are regulated internationally due to their contribution to stratospheric ozone depletion or climate change. In many applications they have been replaced by shorter-lived compounds, which have become measurable in the atmosphere as emissions increased. Non-target monitoring of trace gases rather than targeted measurements of well-known substances is needed to keep up with such changes in the atmospheric composition. We regularly deploy gas chromatography (GC) coupled to time-of-flight mass spectrometry (TOF-MS) for analysis of flask air samples and in situ measurements at the Taunus Observatory, a site in central Germany. TOF-MS acquires data over a continuous mass range that enables a retrospective analysis of the dataset, which can be considered a type of digital air archive. This archive can be used if new substances come into use and their mass spectrometric fingerprint is identified. However, quantifying new replacement halocarbons can be challenging, as mole fractions are generally low, requiring high measurement precision and low detection limits. In addition, calibration can be demanding, as calibration gases may not contain sufficiently high amounts of newly measured substances or the amounts in the calibration gas may have not been quantified. This paper presents an indirect data evaluation approach for TOF-MS data, where the calibration is linked to another compound which could be quantified in the calibration gas. We also present an approach to evaluate the quality of the indirect calibration method, select periods of stable instrument performance and determine well suited reference compounds. The method is applied to three short-lived synthetic halocarbons: HFO-1234yf, HFO-1234ze(E), and HCFO-1233zd(E). They represent replacements for longer-lived hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and exhibit increasing mole fractions in the atmosphere.
The indirectly calibrated results are compared to directly calibrated measurements using data from TOF-MS canister sample analysis and TOF-MS in situ measurements, which are available for some periods of our dataset. The application of the indirect calibration method on several test cases can result in uncertainties of around 6 % to 11 %. For hydro(chloro-)fluoroolefines (denoted H(C)FOs), uncertainties up to 23 % are achieved. The indirectly calculated mole fractions of the investigated H(C)FOs at Taunus Observatory range between measured mole fractions at urban Dübendorf and Jungfraujoch stations in Switzerland.