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Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
Mapping cortical brain asymmetry in 17,141 healthy individuals worldwide via the ENIGMA Consortium
(2017)
The International Halocarbons in Air Comparison Experiment (IHALACE) was conducted to document relationships between calibration scales among various laboratories that measure atmospheric greenhouse and ozone depleting gases. Six stainless steel cylinders containing natural and modified natural air samples were circulated among 19 laboratories. Results from this experiment reveal relatively good agreement among commonly used calibration scales for a number of trace gases present in the unpolluted atmosphere at pmol mol−1 (parts per trillion) levels, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Some scale relationships were found to be consistent with those derived from bi-lateral experiments or from analysis of atmospheric data, while others revealed discrepancies. The transfer of calibration scales among laboratories was found to be problematic in many cases, meaning that measurements tied to a common scale may not, in fact, be compatible. These results reveal substantial improvements in calibration over previous comparisons. However there is room for improvement in communication and coordination of calibration activities with respect to the measurement of halogenated and related trace gases.
The balance function is a new observable based on the principle that charge is locally conserved when particles are pair produced. Balance functions have been measured for charged particle pairs and identified charged pion pairs in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider using STAR. Balance functions for peripheral collisions have widths consistent with model predictions based on a superposition of nucleon-nucleon scattering. Widths in central collisions are smaller, consistent with trends predicted by models incorporating late hadronization.
Azimuthal anisotropy (v2) and two-particle angular correlations of high pT charged hadrons have been measured in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV for transverse momenta up to 6 GeV/c, where hard processes are expected to contribute significantly. The two-particle angular correlations exhibit elliptic flow and a structure suggestive of fragmentation of high pT partons. The monotonic rise of v2(pT) for pT<2 GeV/c is consistent with collective hydrodynamical flow calculations. At pT>3 GeV/c, a saturation of v2 is observed which persists up to pT=6 GeV/c.
Azimuthal anisotropy (v2) and two-particle angular correlations of high pT charged hadrons have been measured in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV for transverse momenta up to 6 GeV/c, where hard processes are expected to contribute significantly. The two-particle angular correlations exhibit elliptic flow and a structure suggestive of fragmentation of high pT partons. The monotonic rise of v2(pT) for pT<2 GeV/c is consistent with collective hydrodynamical flow calculations. At pT>3 GeV/c, a saturation of v2 is observed which persists up to pT=6 GeV/c.
Elliptic flow holds much promise for studying the early-time thermalization attained in ultrarelativistic nuclear collisions. Flow measurements also provide a means of distinguishing between hydrodynamic models and calculations which approach the low density (dilute gas) limit. Among the effects that can complicate the interpretation of elliptic flow measurements are azimuthal correlations that are unrelated to the reaction plane (nonflow correlations). Using data for Au + Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV from the STAR time projection chamber, it is found that four-particle correlation analyses can reliably separate flow and nonflow correlation signals. The latter account for on average about 15% of the observed second-harmonic azimuthal correlation, with the largest relative contribution for the most peripheral and the most central collisions. The results are also corrected for the effect of flow variations within centrality bins. This effect is negligible for all but the most central bin, where the correction to the elliptic flow is about a factor of 2. A simple new method for two-particle flow analysis based on scalar products is described. An analysis based on the distribution of the magnitude of the flow vector is also described.
We report the first observation of K*(892)0--> pi K in relativistic heavy ion collisions. The transverse momentum spectrum of (K*0+K*0)/2 from central Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV is presented. The ratios of the K*0 yield derived from these data to the yields of negative hadrons, charged kaons, and phi mesons have been measured in central and minimum bias collisions and compared with model predictions and comparable e+e-, pp, and p-barp results. The data indicate no dramatic reduction of K*0 production in relativistic heavy ion collisions despite expected losses due to rescattering effects.
The STAR Collaboration reports the first observation of exclusive rho 0 photoproduction, AuAu-->AuAu rho 0, and rho 0 production accompanied by mutual nuclear Coulomb excitation, AuAu-->Au [star] Au [star] rho 0, in ultraperipheral heavy-ion collisions. The rho 0 have low transverse momenta, consistent with coherent coupling to both nuclei. The cross sections at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV agree with theoretical predictions treating rho 0 production and Coulomb excitation as independent processes.
We report STAR results on the azimuthal anisotropy parameter v2 for strange particles K0S, Lambda , and Lambda -bar at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The value of v2 as a function of transverse momentum, pt, of the produced particle and collision centrality is presented for both particles up to pt~3.0 GeV/c. A strong pt dependence in v2 is observed up to 2.0 GeV/c. The v2 measurement is compared with hydrodynamic model calculations. The physics implications of the pt integrated v2 magnitude as a function of particle mass are also discussed.
Inclusive transverse momentum distributions of charged hadrons within 0.2<pT<6.0 GeV/c have been measured over a broad range of centrality for Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV. Hadron yields are suppressed at high pT in central collisions relative to peripheral collisions and to a nucleon-nucleon reference scaled for collision geometry. Peripheral collisions are not suppressed relative to the nucleon-nucleon reference. The suppression varies continuously at intermediate centralities. The results indicate significant nuclear medium effects on high-pT hadron production in heavy-ion collisions at high energy.
We report the first measurement of strange ( Lambda ) and antistrange ( Lambda -bar) baryon production from sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV Au+Au collisions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Rapidity density and transverse mass distributions at midrapidity are presented as a function of centrality. The yield of Lambda and Lambda -bar hyperons is found to be approximately proportional to the number of negative hadrons. The production of Lambda -bar hyperons relative to negative hadrons increases very rapidly with transverse momentum. The magnitude of the increase cannot be described by existing hadronic string fragmentation models alone.
Elliptic flow from nuclear collisions is a hadronic observable sensitive to the early stages of system evolution. We report first results on elliptic flow of charged particles at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN] = 130 GeV using the STAR Time Projection Chamber at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The elliptic flow signal, v2, averaged over transverse momentum, reaches values of about 6% for relatively peripheral collisions and decreases for the more central collisions. This can be interpreted as the observation of a higher degree of thermalization than at lower collision energies. Pseudorapidity and transverse momentum dependence of elliptic flow are also presented.
Background: Human Parvovirus B19 (PVB19) has been associated with myocarditis putative due to endothelial infection. Whether PVB19 infects endothelial cells and causes a modification of endothelial function and inflammation and, thus, disturbance of microcirculation has not been elucidated and could not be visualized so far.
Methods and Findings: To examine the PVB19-induced endothelial modification, we used green fluorescent protein (GFP) color reporter gene in the non-structural segment 1 (NS1) of PVB19. NS1-GFP-PVB19 or GFP plasmid as control were transfected in an endothelial-like cell line (ECV304). The endothelial surface expression of intercellular-adhesion molecule-1 (CD54/ICAM-1) and extracellular matrix metalloproteinase inducer (EMMPRIN/CD147) were evaluated by flow cytometry after NS-1-GFP or control-GFP transfection. To evaluate platelet adhesion on NS-1 transfected ECs, we performed a dynamic adhesion assay (flow chamber). NS-1 transfection causes endothelial activation and enhanced expression of ICAM-1 (CD54: mean±standard deviation: NS1-GFP vs. control-GFP: 85.3±11.2 vs. 61.6±8.1; P<0.05) and induces endothelial expression of EMMPRIN/CD147 (CD147: mean±SEM: NS1-GFP vs. control-GFP: 114±15.3 vs. 80±0.91; P<0.05) compared to control-GFP transfected cells. Dynamic adhesion assays showed that adhesion of platelets is significantly enhanced on NS1 transfected ECs when compared to control-GFP (P<0.05). The transfection of ECs was verified simultaneously through flow cytometry, immunofluorescence microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis.
Conclusions: GFP color reporter gene shows transfection of ECs and may help to visualize NS1-PVB19 induced endothelial activation and platelet adhesion as well as an enhanced monocyte adhesion directly, providing in vitro evidence of possible microcirculatory dysfunction in PVB19-induced myocarditis and, thus, myocardial tissue damage.
National greenhouse gas inventories (GHGIs) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGIs. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emission Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high global warming potentials (GWPs), and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication, its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions from 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009–2012 shows a drop of 35 %, indicating progress toward the target of a 79 % decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008–2018) are on average 73 (62–83) % of, or 4.3 (2.7–5.9) Tg CO2-eq yr−1 lower than, the total HFC emission estimates from the UK GHGI. There are also significant discrepancies between the two estimates for the individual HFCs.
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (GHGI) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGI. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emissions Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions in the since 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009–2012 shows a drop of 35%, indicating progress toward the target of a 79% decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008–2018) are on average 73 (62–83)% of, or 4.3 (2.7–5.9) Tg CO2-eq yr−1 lower than, the total HFC emission estimates from the UK GHGI inventory. There are also significant discrepancies between the two estimates for the individual HFCs.
The first concerted multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) has been performed, within the framework of the ongoing Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom). Eleven global models or model variants participated, simulating the major natural bromine VSLS, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), over a 20-year period (1993-2012). The overarching goal of TransCom-VSLS was to provide a reconciled model estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) of bromine from these gases, to constrain the current measurement-derived range, and to investigate inter-model differences
due to emissions and transport processes. Models ran with standardised idealised chemistry, to isolate differences due to transport, and we investigated the sensitivity of results to a range of VSLS emission inventories. Models were tested in their ability to reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial distribution of VSLS at the surface, using measurements from NOAA’s long-term global monitoring network, and in the tropical troposphere, using recent aircraft measurements - including high altitude observations from the NASA Global Hawk platform.
The models generally capture the seasonal cycle of surface CHBr3 and CH2Br2 well, with a strong model measurement correlation (r ≥0.7) and a low sensitivity to the choice of emission inventory, at most sites. In a given model, the absolute model-measurement agreement is highly sensitive to the choice of emissions and inter-model differences are also apparent, even when using the same inventory, highlighting the challenges faced in evaluating such inventories at the global scale. Across the ensemble, most consistency is found within the tropics where most of the models (8 out of 11) achieve optimal agreement to surface CHBr3 observations using the lowest of the three CHBr3 emission inventories tested (similarly, 8 out of 11 models for CH2Br2). In general, the models are able to reproduce well observations of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 obtained in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) at various locations throughout the Pacific. Zonal variability in VSLS loading in the TTL is generally consistent among models, with CHBr3 (and to a lesser extent CH2Br2) most elevated over the tropical West Pacific during boreal winter. The models also indicate the Asian Monsoon during boreal summer to be an important pathway for VSLS reaching the stratosphere, though the strength of this signal varies considerably among models.
We derive an ensemble climatological mean estimate of the stratospheric bromine SGI from CHBr3 and CH2Br2 of 2.0 (1.2-2.5) ppt, ∼57% larger than the best estimate from the most re- cent World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Ozone Assessment Report. We find no evidence for a long-term, transport-driven trend in the stratospheric SGI of bromine over the simulation period. However, transport-driven inter-annual variability in the annual mean bromine SGI is of the order of a ±5%, with SGI exhibiting a strong positive correlation with ENSO in the East Pacific
Elliptic flow from nuclear collisions is a hadronic observable sensitive to the early stages of system evolution. We report first results on elliptic flow of charged particles at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt(s_NN)=130 GeV using the STAR TPC at RHIC. The elliptic flow signal, v_2, averaged over transverse momentum, reaches values of about 6% for relatively peripheral collisions and decreases for the more central collisions. This can be interpreted as the observation of a higher degree of thermalization than at lower collision energies. Pseudorapidity and transverse momentum dependence of elliptic flow are also presented.
Background: Bipolar disorder is associated with circadian disruption and a high risk of suicidal behavior. In a previous exploratory study of patients with bipolar I disorder, we found that a history of suicide attempts was associated with differences between winter and summer levels of solar insolation. The purpose of this study was to confirm this finding using international data from 42% more collection sites and 25% more countries. Methods: Data analyzed were from 71 prior and new collection sites in 40 countries at a wide range of latitudes. The analysis included 4876 patients with bipolar I disorder, 45% more data than previously analyzed. Of the patients, 1496 (30.7%) had a history of suicide attempt. Solar insolation data, the amount of the sun’s electromagnetic energy striking the surface of the earth, was obtained for each onset location (479 locations in 64 countries). Results: This analysis confirmed the results of the exploratory study with the same best model and slightly better statistical significance. There was a significant inverse association between a history of suicide attempts and the ratio of mean winter insolation to mean summer insolation (mean winter insolation/mean summer insolation). This ratio is largest near the equator which has little change in solar insolation over the year, and smallest near the poles where the winter insolation is very small compared to the summer insolation. Other variables in the model associated with an increased risk of suicide attempts were a history of alcohol or substance abuse, female gender, and younger birth cohort. The winter/summer insolation ratio was also replaced with the ratio of minimum mean monthly insolation to the maximum mean monthly insolation to accommodate insolation patterns in the tropics, and nearly identical results were found. All estimated coefficients were significant at p < 0.01. Conclusion: A large change in solar insolation, both between winter and summer and between the minimum and maximum monthly values, may increase the risk of suicide attempts in bipolar I disorder. With frequent circadian rhythm dysfunction and suicidal behavior in bipolar disorder, greater understanding of the optimal roles of daylight and electric lighting in circadian entrainment is needed.