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Background: The invasive temperate mosquito Aedes japonicus japonicus is a potential vector for various infectious diseases and therefore a target of vector control measures. Even though established in Germany, it is unclear whether the species has already reached its full distribution potential. The possible range of the species, its annual population dynamics, the success of vector control measures and future expansions due to climate change still remain poorly understood. While numerous studies on occurrence have been conducted, they used mainly presence data from relatively few locations. In contrast, we used experimental life history data to model the dynamics of a continuous stage-structured population to infer potential seasonal densities and ask whether stable populations are likely to establish over a period of more than one year. In addition, we used climate change models to infer future ranges. Finally, we evaluated the effectiveness of various stage-specific vector control measures.
Results: Aedes j. japonicus has already established stable populations in the southwest and west of Germany. Our models predict a spread of Ae. j. japonicus beyond the currently observed range, but likely not much further eastwards under current climatic conditions. Climate change models, however, will expand this range substantially and higher annual densities can be expected. Applying vector control measures to oviposition, survival of eggs, larvae or adults showed that application of adulticides for 30 days between late spring and early autumn, while ambient temperatures are above 9 °C, can reduce population density by 75%. Continuous application of larvicide showed similar results in population reduction. Most importantly, we showed that with the consequent application of a mixed strategy, it should be possible to significantly reduce or even extinguish existing populations with reasonable effort.
Conclusion: Our study provides valuable insights into the mechanisms concerning the establishment of stable populations in invasive species. In order to minimise the hazard to public health, we recommend vector control measures to be applied in ‘high risk areas’ which are predicted to allow establishment of stable populations to establish.
Effects of seasonal or daily temperature variation on fitness and physiology of ectothermic organisms and their ways to cope with such variations have been widely studied. However, the way multivoltines organisms cope with temperature variations from one generation to the next is still not well understood. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the multivoltine midge Chironomus riparius Meigen (1803) responds mainly via acclimation as predicted by current theories or whether rapid genetic adaptation is involved. To investigate this issue, a common garden approach has been applied. A mix of larvae from five European populations was raised in the laboratory at three different pre‐exposure temperatures (PET): 14, 20, and 26°C. After three and five generations, respectively, larvae were exposed to three treatment temperatures (TT): 14, 20, and 26°C. Mortality was monitored for the first 48 hr and after emergence. After three generations, significant mortality rate differences depended on an interaction of PET and TT. This finding supports the hypothesis that chironomids respond rapidly to climatic variation via adaptive mechanisms and to a lesser extent via phenotypic plasticity. The result of the experiment indicates that three generations were sufficient to adapt to warm temperature, decreasing the mortality rate, highlighting the potential for chironomids to rapidly respond to seasonally changing conditions.
The gradual heterogeneity of climatic factors pose varying selection pressures across geographic distances that leave signatures of clinal variation in the genome. Separating signatures of clinal adaptation from signatures of other evolutionary forces, such as demographic processes, genetic drift, and adaptation to non-clinal conditions of the immediate local environment is a major challenge. Here, we examine climate adaptation in five natural populations of the harlequin fly Chironomus riparius sampled along a climatic gradient across Europe. Our study integrates experimental data, individual genome resequencing, Pool-Seq data, and population genetic modelling. Common-garden experiments revealed a positive correlation of population growth rates corresponding to the population origin along the climate gradient, suggesting thermal adaptation on the phenotypic level. Based on a population genomic analysis, we derived empirical estimates of historical demography and migration. We used an FST outlier approach to infer positive selection across the climate gradient, in combination with an environmental association analysis. In total we identified 162 candidate genes as genomic basis of climate adaptation. Enriched functions among these candidate genes involved the apoptotic process and molecular response to heat, as well as functions identified in other studies of climate adaptation in other insects. Our results show that local climate conditions impose strong selection pressures and lead to genomic adaptation despite strong gene flow. Moreover, these results imply that selection to different climatic conditions seems to converge on a functional level, at least between different insect species.