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Background: Predicted increases in suicide were not generally observed in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the picture may be changing and patterns might vary across demographic groups. We aimed to provide a timely, granular picture of the pandemic's impact on suicides globally.
Methods: We identified suicide data from official public-sector sources for countries/areas-within-countries, searching websites and academic literature and contacting data custodians and authors as necessary. We sent our first data request on 22nd June 2021 and stopped collecting data on 31st October 2021. We used interrupted time series (ITS) analyses to model the association between the pandemic's emergence and total suicides and suicides by sex-, age- and sex-by-age in each country/area-within-country. We compared the observed and expected numbers of suicides in the pandemic's first nine and first 10-15 months and used meta-regression to explore sources of variation.
Findings: We sourced data from 33 countries (24 high-income, six upper-middle-income, three lower-middle-income; 25 with whole-country data, 12 with data for area(s)-within-the-country, four with both). There was no evidence of greater-than-expected numbers of suicides in the majority of countries/areas-within-countries in any analysis; more commonly, there was evidence of lower-than-expected numbers. Certain sex, age and sex-by-age groups stood out as potentially concerning, but these were not consistent across countries/areas-within-countries. In the meta-regression, different patterns were not explained by countries’ COVID-19 mortality rate, stringency of public health response, economic support level, or presence of a national suicide prevention strategy. Nor were they explained by countries’ income level, although the meta-regression only included data from high-income and upper-middle-income countries, and there were suggestions from the ITS analyses that lower-middle-income countries fared less well.
Interpretation: Although there are some countries/areas-within-countries where overall suicide numbers and numbers for certain sex- and age-based groups are greater-than-expected, these countries/areas-within-countries are in the minority. Any upward movement in suicide numbers in any place or group is concerning, and we need to remain alert to and respond to changes as the pandemic and its mental health and economic consequences continue.
Introduction. Balapiravir (R1626, RG1626) is the prodrug of a nucleoside analogue inhibitor of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (R1479, RG1479). This phase 2, double-blind international trial evaluated the optimal treatment regimen of balapiravir plus peginterferon alfa-2a (40KD)/ribavirin.
Material and methods. Treatment-naive genotype 1 patients (N = 516) were randomized to one of seven treatment groups in which they received balapiravir 500, 1,000, or 1,500 mg twice daily, peginterferon alfa2a (40KD) 180 or 90 Mg/week and ribavirin 1,000/1,200 mg/day or peginterferon alfa-2a (40KD)/ribavirin. The planned treatment duration with balapiravir was reduced from 24 to 12 weeks due to safety concerns.
Results. The percentage of patients with undetectable HCV RNA was consistently higher in all balapiravir groups from week 2 to 12. However, high rates of dose modifications and discontinuations of one/all study drugs compromised the efficacy assessment and resulted in similar sustained virological response rates in the balapiravir groups (range 32-50%) and the peginterferon alfa-2a (40KD)/ribavirin group (43%). Balapiravir was discontinued for safety reasons in 28-36% of patients (most often for lymphopenia) and the percentage of patients with serious adverse events (especially hematological, infection, ocular events) was dose related. Serious hematological adverse events (particularly neutropenia, lymphopenia) were more common in balapiravir recipients. Two deaths in the balapiravir/peginterferon alfa-2a/ribavirin combination groups were considered possibly related to study medication.
Conclusion. Further development of balapiravir for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C has been halted because of the unacceptable benefit to risk ratio revealed in this study (www.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT 00517439).