Refine
Year of publication
- 2019 (3)
Document Type
- Article (2)
- Working Paper (1)
Language
- English (3)
Has Fulltext
- yes (3)
Is part of the Bibliography
- no (3)
Keywords
- ACLF (1)
- Bayesian inference (1)
- Expectation–Maximisation (1)
- Financial Networks (1)
- Immune Response (1)
- Interventional Trials (1)
- Liver-Related Complications (1)
- Sparsity (1)
- Spike–and–Slab prior (1)
- Splanchnic Hemodynamics (1)
We propose a shrinkage and selection methodology specifically designed for network inference using high dimensional data through a regularised linear regression model with Spike-and-Slab prior on the parameters. The approach extends the case where the error terms are heteroscedastic, by adding an ARCH-type equation through an approximate Expectation-Maximisation algorithm. The proposed model accounts for two sets of covariates. The first set contains predetermined variables which are not penalised in the model (i.e., the autoregressive component and common factors) while the second set of variables contains all the (lagged) financial institutions in the system, included with a given probability. The financial linkages are expressed in terms of inclusion probabilities resulting in a weighted directed network where the adjacency matrix is built “row by row". In the empirical application, we estimate the network over time using a rolling window approach on 1248 world financial firms (banks, insurances, brokers and other financial services) both active and dead from 29 December 2000 to 6 October 2017 at a weekly frequency. Findings show that over time the shape of the out degree distribution exhibits the typical behavior of financial stress indicators and represents a significant predictor of market returns at the first lag (one week) and the fourth lag (one month).
Background & Aims: We investigated the effect of albumin treatment (20% solution) on hypoalbuminemia, cardiocirculatory dysfunction, portal hypertension, and systemic inflammation in patients with decompensated cirrhosis with and without bacterial infections.
Methods: We performed a prospective study to assess the effects of long-term (12 weeks) treatment with low doses (1 g/kg body weight every 2 weeks) and high doses (1.5 g/kg every week) of albumin on serum albumin, plasma renin, cardiocirculatory function, portal pressure, and plasma levels of cytokines, collecting data from 18 patients without bacterial infections (the Pilot-PRECIOSA study). We also assessed the effect of short-term (1 week) treatment with antibiotics alone vs the combination of albumin plus antibiotics (1.5 g/kg on day 1 and 1 g/kg on day 3) on plasma levels of cytokines in biobanked samples from 78 patients with bacterial infections included in a randomized controlled trial (INFECIR-2 study).
Results: Circulatory dysfunction and systemic inflammation were extremely unstable in many patients included in the Pilot-PRECIOSA study; these patients had intense and reversible peaks in plasma levels of renin and interleukin 6. Long-term high-dose albumin, but not low-dose albumin, was associated with normalization of serum level of albumin, improved stability of the circulation and left ventricular function, and reduced plasma levels of cytokines (interleukin 6, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, interleukin 1 receptor antagonist, and vascular endothelial growth factor) without significant changes in portal pressure. The immune-modulatory effects of albumin observed in the Pilot-PRECIOSA study were confirmed in the INFECIR-2 study. In this study, patients given albumin had significant reductions in plasma levels of cytokines.
Conclusions: In an analysis of data from 2 trials (Pilot-PRECIOSA study and INFECIR-2 study), we found that albumin treatment reduced systemic inflammation and cardiocirculatory dysfunction in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. These effects might be responsible for the beneficial effects of albumin therapy on outcomes of patients with decompensated cirrhosis. ClinicalTrials.gov, Numbers: NCT00968695 and NCT03451292.
Background: Patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis (AD) may or may not develop acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). ACLF is characterized by high-grade systemic inflammation, organ failures (OF) and high short-term mortality. Although patients with AD cirrhosis exhibit distinct clinical phenotypes at baseline, they have low short-term mortality, unless ACLF develops during follow-up. Because little is known about the association of profile of systemic inflammation with clinical phenotypes of patients with AD cirrhosis, we aimed to investigate a battery of markers of systemic inflammation in these patients.
Methods: Upon hospital admission baseline plasma levels of 15 markers (cytokines, chemokines, and oxidized albumin) were measured in 40 healthy controls, 39 compensated cirrhosis, 342 AD cirrhosis, and 161 ACLF. According to EASL-CLIF criteria, AD cirrhosis was divided into three distinct clinical phenotypes (AD-1: Creatinine<1.5, no HE, no OF; AD-2: creatinine 1.5–2, and or HE grade I/II, no OF; AD-3: Creatinine<1.5, no HE, non-renal OF).
Results: Most markers were slightly abnormal in compensated cirrhosis, but markedly increased in AD. Patients with ACLF exhibited the largest number of abnormal markers, indicating “full-blown” systemic inflammation (all markers). AD-patients exhibited distinct systemic inflammation profiles across three different clinical phenotypes. In each phenotype, activation of systemic inflammation was only partial (30% of the markers). Mortality related to each clinical AD-phenotype was significantly lower than mortality associated with ACLF (p < 0.0001 by gray test). Among AD-patients baseline systemic inflammation (especially IL-8, IL-6, IL-1ra, HNA2 independently associated) was more intense in those who had poor 28-day outcomes (ACLF, death) than those who did not experience these outcomes.
Conclusions: Although AD-patients exhibit distinct profiles of systemic inflammation depending on their clinical phenotypes, all these patients have only partial activation of systemic inflammation. However, those with the most extended baseline systemic inflammation had the highest the risk of ACLF development and death.