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Seasonal forecasting systems still have difficulties predicting temperature over continental regions, while their performance is better over some maritime regions. On the other hand, the land surface is a substantial source of (sub-)seasonal predictability. A crucial land surface component in focus here is the snow cover, which stores water and modulates the surface radiation balance. This paper’s goal is to attribute snow cover seasonal forecasting biases and lack of skill to either initialization or parameterization errors. For this purpose, we compare the snow representation in five seasonal forecasting systems (from DWD, ECMWF, Météo-France, CMCC, and ECCC) and their performances in predicting snow and 2-m temperature over a Siberian region against ERA5 reanalysis and station data. Although all systems use similar atmospheric and land initialization approaches and data, their snow and temperature biases differ in sign and amplitude. Too-large initial snow biases persist over the forecast period, delaying and prolonging the melting phase. The simplest snow scheme (used in DWD’s system) shows too-early and fast melting in spring. However, systems including multi-layer snow schemes (Météo-France and CMCC) do not necessarily perform better. Both initialization and parameterization are causes of snow biases, but, depending on the system, one can be more dominant.
Convective rain cell properties and the resulting precipitation scaling in a warm-temperate climate
(2022)
Convective precipitation events have been shown to intensify at rates exceeding the Clausius–Clapeyron rate (CC rate) of ca. 7% K−1 under current climate conditions. In this study, we relate atmospheric variables (low-level dew point temperature, convective available potential energy, and vertical wind shear), which are regarded as ingredients for severe deep convection, to properties of convective rain cells (cell area, maximum precipitation intensity, lifetime, precipitation sum, and cell speed). The rain cell properties are obtained from a rain gauge-adjusted radar dataset in a mid-latitude region, which is characterized by a temperate climate with warm summers (Germany). Different Lagrangian cell properties scale with dew point temperature at varying rates. While the maximum precipitation intensity of cells scales consistently at the CC rate, the area and precipitation sum per cell scale at varying rates above the CC rate. We show that this super-CC scaling is caused by a covarying increase of convective available potential energy with dew point temperature. Wind shear increases the precipitation sum per cell mainly by increasing the spatial cell extent. From a Eulerian point of view, this increase is partly compensated by a higher cell velocity, which leads to Eulerian precipitation scaling rates close to and slightly above the CC rate. Thus, Eulerian scaling rates of convective precipitation are modulated by convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear, making it unlikely that present scaling rates can be applied to future climate conditions. Furthermore, we show that cells that cause heavy precipitation at fixed locations occur at low vertical wind shear and, thus, move relatively slowly compared to typical cells.
Driven by globalization, urbanization and climate change, the distribution range of invasive vector species has expanded to previously colder ecoregions. To reduce health-threatening impacts on humans, insect vectors are extensively studied. Population genomics can reveal the genomic basis of adaptation and help to identify emerging trends of vector expansion. By applying whole genome analyses and genotype-environment associations to populations of the main dengue vector Aedes aegypti, sampled along an altitudinal gradient in Nepal (200–1300 m), we identify putatively adaptive traits and describe the species' genomic footprint of climate adaptation to colder ecoregions. We found two differentiated clusters with significantly different allele frequencies in genes associated to climate adaptation between the highland population (1300 m) and all other lowland populations (≤800 m). We revealed nonsynonymous mutations in 13 of the candidate genes associated to either altitude, precipitation or cold tolerance and identified an isolation-by-environment differentiation pattern. Other than the expected gradual differentiation along the altitudinal gradient, our results reveal a distinct genomic differentiation of the highland population. Local high-altitude adaptation could be one explanation of the population's phenotypic cold tolerance. Carrying alleles relevant for survival under colder climate increases the likelihood of this highland population to a worldwide expansion into other colder ecoregions.