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Climate change indicators are tools to assess, visualize and communicate the impacts of climate change on species and communities. Indicators that can be applied to different taxa are particularly useful because they allow comparative analysis to identify which kinds of species are being more affected. A general prediction, supported by empirical data, is that the abundance of warm-adapted species should increase over time, relative to the cool-adapted ones within communities, under increasing ambient temperatures. The community temperature index (CTI) is a community weighted mean of species’ temperature preferences and has been used as an indicator to summarize this temporal shift. The CTI has the advantages of being a simple and generalizable indicator; however, a core problem is that temporal trends in the CTI may not only reflect changes in temperature. This is because species’ temperature preferences often covary with other species attributes, and these other attributes may affect species response to other environmental drivers. Here, we propose a novel model-based approach that separates the effects of temperature preference from the effects of other species attributes on species’ abundances and subsequently on the CTI. Using long-term population data of breeding birds in Denmark and demersal marine fish in the southeastern North Sea, we find differences in CTI trends with the original approach and our model-based approach, which may affect interpretation of climate change impacts. We suggest that our method can be used to test the robustness of CTI trends to the possible effects of other drivers of change, apart from climate change.
Background: The impact of climate change on public health may occur through a number of main pathways including increased temperature, ground-level ozone levels and ultra-violet radiation, which have a range of consequences for human health. One strategy for adaptation to the predicted effects of climate change on health that has been proposed, is to ‘green’ urban areas, essentially by increasing the abundance and cover of vegetation. This protocol is for an update of a systematic review which aimed to address the question: How effective is ‘greening’ of urban areas in reducing human exposure to ground-level ozone concentrations, UV exposure and the ‘urban heat island effect’?
Methods: A sensitive search of multiple databases and relevant journals for relevant published articles will be conducted. A search for relevant unpublished articles will be undertaken through an internet search and of websites of relevant organisations. Inclusion criteria will be applied at title, abstract and full-text. Repeatability checks of this screening process will be undertaken. Articles included at full-text will be critically appraised using a standardised checklist. A repeatability check will be made of this process. Pre-defined data items will be extracted from included articles. If appropriate, quantitative synthesis will be undertaken through meta-analysis and/or a narrative synthesis will be undertaken.