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The early prediction of mortality is one of the unresolved tasks in intensive care medicine. This contribution models medical symptoms as observations cased by transitions between hidden markov states. Learning the underlying state transition probabilities results in a prediction probability success of about 91%. The results are discussed and put in relation to the model used. Finally, the rationales for using the model are reflected: Are there states in the septic shock data?
In intensive care units physicians are aware of a high lethality rate of septic shock patients. In this contribution we present typical problems and results of a retrospective, data driven analysis based on two neural network methods applied on the data of two clinical studies. Our approach includes necessary steps of data mining, i.e. building up a data base, cleaning and preprocessing the data and finally choosing an adequate analysis for the medical patient data. We chose two architectures based on supervised neural networks. The patient data is classified into two classes (survived and deceased) by a diagnosis based either on the black-box approach of a growing RBF network and otherwise on a second network which can be used to explain its diagnosis by human-understandable diagnostic rules. The advantages and drawbacks of these classification methods for an early warning system are discussed.