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Elliptic flow from nuclear collisions is a hadronic observable sensitive to the early stages of system evolution. We report first results on elliptic flow of charged particles at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt(s_NN)=130 GeV using the STAR TPC at RHIC. The elliptic flow signal, v_2, averaged over transverse momentum, reaches values of about 6% for relatively peripheral collisions and decreases for the more central collisions. This can be interpreted as the observation of a higher degree of thermalization than at lower collision energies. Pseudorapidity and transverse momentum dependence of elliptic flow are also presented.
Elliptic flow from nuclear collisions is a hadronic observable sensitive to the early stages of system evolution. We report first results on elliptic flow of charged particles at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN] = 130 GeV using the STAR Time Projection Chamber at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The elliptic flow signal, v2, averaged over transverse momentum, reaches values of about 6% for relatively peripheral collisions and decreases for the more central collisions. This can be interpreted as the observation of a higher degree of thermalization than at lower collision energies. Pseudorapidity and transverse momentum dependence of elliptic flow are also presented.
Two-pion correlation functions in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN] = 130 GeV have been measured by the STAR (solenoidal tracker at RHIC) detector. The source size extracted by fitting the correlations grows with event multiplicity and decreases with transverse momentum. Anomalously large sizes or emission durations, which have been suggested as signals of quark-gluon plasma formation and rehadronization, are not observed. The Hanbury Brown-Twiss parameters display a weak energy dependence over a broad range in sqrt[sNN].
The first measurements of light antinucleus production in Au+Au collisions at the Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider are reported. The observed production rates for d-bar and 3He-bar are much larger than in lower energy nucleus-nucleus collisions. A coalescence model analysis of the yields indicates that there is little or no increase in the antinucleon freeze-out volume compared to collisions at CERN SPS energy. These analyses also indicate that the 3He-bar freeze-out volume is smaller than the d-bar freeze-out volume.
We present the first measurement of midrapidity vector meson phi production in Au+Au collisions at RHIC (sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV) from the STAR detector. For the 11% highest multiplicity collisions, the slope parameter from an exponential fit to the transverse mass distribution is T=379±50(stat)±45(syst) MeV, the yield dN/dy=5.73±0.37(stat)±0.69(syst) per event, and the ratio N phi /Nh- is found to be 0.021±0.001(stat)±0.004(syst). The measured ratio N phi /Nh- and T for the phi meson at midrapidity do not change for the selected multiplicity bins.
We report first results on elliptic flow of identified particles at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN] = 130 GeV using the STAR TPC at RHIC. The elliptic flow as a function of transverse momentum and centrality differs significantly for particles of different masses. This dependence can be accounted for in hydrodynamic models, indicating that the system created shows a behavior consistent with collective hydrodynamical flow. The fit to the data with a simple model gives information on the temperature and flow velocities at freeze-out.
The minimum-bias multiplicity distribution and the transverse momentum and pseudorapidity distributions for central collisions have been measured for negative hadrons ( h-) in Au+Au interactions at sqrt[sNN] = 130 GeV. The multiplicity density at midrapidity for the 5% most central interactions is dNh-/d eta | eta = 0 = 280±1(stat)±20(syst), an increase per participant of 38% relative to pp-bar collisions at the same energy. The mean transverse momentum is 0.508±0.012 GeV/c and is larger than in central Pb+Pb collisions at lower energies. The scaling of the h- yield per participant is a strong function of pperp. The pseudorapidity distribution is almost constant within | eta |<1.
We present the results of charged particle fluctuations measurements in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN ]=130 GeV using the STAR detector. Dynamical fluctuations measurements are presented for inclusive charged particle multiplicities as well as for identified charged pions, kaons, and protons. The net charge dynamical fluctuations are found to be large and negative providing clear evidence that positive and negative charged particle production is correlated within the pseudorapidity range investigated. Correlations are smaller than expected based on model-dependent predictions for a resonance gas or a quark-gluon gas which undergoes fast hadronization and freeze-out. Qualitative agreement is found with comparable scaled p+p measurements and a heavy ion jet interaction generation model calculation based on independent particle collisions, although a small deviation from the 1/N scaling dependence expected from this model is observed.
We report inclusive photon measurements about midrapidity ( |y| <0.5 ) from 197 Au + 197 Au collisions at sqrt[sNN ]=130 GeV at RHIC. Photon pair conversions were reconstructed from electron and positron tracks measured with the Time Projection Chamber (TPC) of the STAR experiment. With this method, an energy resolution of Delta E/E ~ 2% at 0.5 GeV has been achieved. Reconstructed photons have also been used to measure the transverse momentum ( pt ) spectra of pi 0 mesons about midrapidity ( |y| <1 ) via the pi 0 --> gamma gamma decay channel. The fractional contribution of the pi 0 --> gamma gamma decay to the inclusive photon spectrum decreases by 20%±5% between pt =1.65 GeV/c and pt =2.4 GeV/c in the most central events, indicating that relative to pi 0 --> gamma gamma decay the contribution of other photon sources is substantially increasing.
We present the first large-acceptance measurement of event-wise mean transverse momentum <pt> fluctuations for Au-Au collisions at nucleon-nucleon center-of-momentum collision energy sqrt[sNN] = 130 GeV. The observed nonstatistical <pt> fluctuations substantially exceed in magnitude fluctuations expected from the finite number of particles produced in a typical collision. The r.m.s. fractional width excess of the event-wise <pt> distribution is 13.7±0.1(stat) ±1.3(syst)% relative to a statistical reference, for the 15% most-central collisions and for charged hadrons within pseudorapidity range | eta |<1,2 pi azimuth, and 0.15 <= pt <= 2 GeV/c. The width excess varies smoothly but nonmonotonically with collision centrality and does not display rapid changes with centrality which might indicate the presence of critical fluctuations. The reported <pt> fluctuation excess is qualitatively larger than those observed at lower energies and differs markedly from theoretical expectations. Contributions to <pt> fluctuations from semihard parton scattering in the initial state and dissipation in the bulk colored medium are discussed.
We present STAR measurements of the azimuthal anisotropy parameter v2 and the binary-collision scaled centrality ratio RCP for kaons and lambdas ( Lambda + Lambda -bar) at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=200 GeV. In combination, the v2 and RCP particle-type dependencies contradict expectations from partonic energy loss followed by standard fragmentation in vacuum. We establish pT ~ 5 GeV/c as the value where the centrality dependent baryon enhancement ends. The K0S and Lambda + Lambda -bar v2 values are consistent with expectations of constituent-quark-number scaling from models of hadron formation by parton coalescence or recombination.
Pion-kaon correlation functions are constructed from central Au+Au STAR data taken at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV by the STAR detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The results suggest that pions and kaons are not emitted at the same average space-time point. Space-momentum correlations, i.e., transverse flow, lead to a space-time emission asymmetry of pions and kaons that is consistent with the data. This result provides new independent evidence that the system created at RHIC undergoes a collective transverse expansion.
We report measurements of single-particle inclusive spectra and two-particle azimuthal distributions of charged hadrons at high transverse momentum (high pT) in minimum bias and central d+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=200 GeV. The inclusive yield is enhanced in d+Au collisions relative to binary-scaled p+p collisions, while the two-particle azimuthal distributions are very similar to those observed in p+p collisions. These results demonstrate that the strong suppression of the inclusive yield and back-to-back correlations at high pT previously observed in central Au+Au collisions are due to final-state interactions with the dense medium generated in such collisions.
Transverse mass and rapidity distributions for charged pions, charged kaons, protons, and antiprotons are reported for sqrt[sNN]=200 GeV pp and Au+Au collisions at Relativistic Heary Ion Collider (RHIC). Chemical and kinetic equilibrium model fits to our data reveal strong radial flow and long duration from chemical to kinetic freeze-out in central Au+Au collisions. The chemical freeze-out temperature appears to be independent of initial conditions at RHIC energies.
Measurements of the production of forward high-energy pi 0 mesons from transversely polarized proton collisions at sqrt[s]=200 GeV are reported. The cross section is generally consistent with next-to-leading order perturbative QCD calculations. The analyzing power is small at xF below about 0.3, and becomes positive and large at higher xF, similar to the trend in data at sqrt[s] <= 20 GeV. The analyzing power is in qualitative agreement with perturbative QCD model expectations. This is the first significant spin result seen for particles produced with pT>1 GeV/c at a polarized proton collider.
We report the first observations of the first harmonic (directed flow, v1) and the fourth harmonic (v4), in the azimuthal distribution of particles with respect to the reaction plane in Au+Au collisions at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Both measurements were done taking advantage of the large elliptic flow (v2) generated at RHIC. From the correlation of v2 with v1 it is determined that v2 is positive, or in-plane. The integrated v4 is about a factor of 10 smaller than v2. For the sixth (v6) and eighth (v8) harmonics upper limits on the magnitudes are reported.
We report results on the ratio of midrapidity antiproton-to-proton yields in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN] = 130 GeV per nucleon pair as measured by the STAR experiment at RHIC. Within the rapidity and transverse momentum range of | y|<0.5 and 0.4<pt<1.0 GeV/c, the ratio is essentially independent of either transverse momentum or rapidity, with an average of 0.65±0.01(stat)±0.07(syst) for minimum bias collisions. Within errors, no strong centrality dependence is observed. The results indicate that at this RHIC energy, although the p-p-bar pair production becomes important at midrapidity, a significant excess of baryons over antibaryons is still present.
We report on the rapidity and centrality dependence of proton and antiproton transverse mass distributions from 197Au + 197Au collisions at sqrt[sNN ]=130 GeV as measured by the STAR experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Our results are from the rapidity and transverse momentum range of |y| <0.5 and 0.35< pt <1.00 GeV/c . For both protons and antiprotons, transverse mass distributions become more convex from peripheral to central collisions demonstrating characteristics of collective expansion. The measured rapidity distributions and the mean transverse momenta versus rapidity are flat within |y| <0.5 . Comparisons of our data with results from model calculations indicate that in order to obtain a consistent picture of the proton (antiproton) yields and transverse mass distributions the possibility of prehadronic collective expansion may have to be taken into account.
We report high statistics measurements of inclusive charged hadron production in Au+Au and p+p collisions at sqrt[sNN]=200 GeV. A large, approximately constant hadron suppression is observed in central Au+Au collisions for 5<pT<12 GeV/c. The collision energy dependence of the yields and the centrality and pT dependence of the suppression provide stringent constraints on theoretical models of suppression. Models incorporating initial-state gluon saturation or partonic energy loss in dense matter are largely consistent with observations. We observe no evidence of pT-dependent suppression, which may be expected from models incorporating jet attenuation in cold nuclear matter or scattering of fragmentation hadrons.
We report results on rho (770)0--> pi + pi - production at midrapidity in p+p and peripheral Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=200 GeV. This is the first direct measurement of rho (770)0--> pi + pi - in heavy-ion collisions. The measured rho 0 peak in the invariant mass distribution is shifted by ~40 MeV/c2 in minimum bias p+p interactions and ~70 MeV/c2 in peripheral Au+Au collisions. The rho 0 mass shift is dependent on transverse momentum and multiplicity. The modification of the rho 0 meson mass, width, and shape due to phase space and dynamical effects are discussed.
Results on high transverse momentum charged particle emission with respect to the reaction plane are presented for Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=200 GeV. Two- and four-particle correlations results are presented as well as a comparison of azimuthal correlations in Au+Au collisions to those in p+p at the same energy. The elliptic anisotropy v2 is found to reach its maximum at pt~3 GeV/c, then decrease slowly and remain significant up to pt ~ 7-10 GeV/c. Stronger suppression is found in the back-to-back high-pt particle correlations for particles emitted out of plane compared to those emitted in plane. The centrality dependence of v2 at intermediate pt is compared to simple models based on jet quenching.
Azimuthally sensitive Hanbury Brown-Twiss interferometry in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=200 GeV
(2004)
We present the results of a systematic study of the shape of the pion distribution in coordinate space at freeze-out in Au+Au collisions at BNL RHIC using two-pion Hanbury Brown-Twiss (HBT) interferometry. Oscillations of the extracted HBT radii versus emission angle indicate sources elongated perpendicular to the reaction plane. The results indicate that the pressure and expansion time of the collision system are not sufficient to completely quench its initial shape.
We present STAR measurements of charged hadron production as a function of centrality in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN ]=130 GeV . The measurements cover a phase space region of 0.2< pT <6.0 GeV/c in transverse momentum and -1< eta <1 in pseudorapidity. Inclusive transverse momentum distributions of charged hadrons in the pseudorapidity region 0.5< | eta | <1 are reported and compared to our previously published results for | eta | <0.5 . No significant difference is seen for inclusive pT distributions of charged hadrons in these two pseudorapidity bins. We measured dN/d eta distributions and truncated mean pT in a region of pT > pcutT , and studied the results in the framework of participant and binary scaling. No clear evidence is observed for participant scaling of charged hadron yield in the measured pT region. The relative importance of hard scattering processes is investigated through binary scaling fraction of particle production.
Transverse energy ( ET ) distributions have been measured for Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN ]=200 GeV by the STAR Collaboration at RHIC. ET is constructed from its hadronic and electromagnetic components, which have been measured separately. ET production for the most central collisions is well described by several theoretical models whose common feature is large energy density achieved early in the fireball evolution. The magnitude and centrality dependence of ET per charged particle agrees well with measurements at lower collision energy, indicating that the growth in ET for larger collision energy results from the growth in particle production. The electromagnetic fraction of the total ET is consistent with a final state dominated by mesons and independent of centrality.
We present data on e+ e- pair production accompanied by nuclear breakup in ultraperipheral gold-gold collisions at a center of mass energy of 200 GeV per nucleon pair. The nuclear breakup requirement selects events at small impact parameters, where higher-order diagrams for pair production should be enhanced. We compare the data with two calculations: one based on the equivalent photon approximation, and the other using lowest-order quantum electrodynamics (QED). The data distributions agree with both calculations, except that the pair transverse momentum spectrum disagrees with the equivalent photon approach. We set limits on higher-order contributions to the cross section.
We report the first measurement of inclusive antiproton production at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN] = 130 GeV by the STAR experiment at RHIC. The antiproton transverse mass distributions in the measured transverse momentum range of 0.25<pperp<0.95 GeV/c are found to fall less steeply for more central collisions. The extrapolated antiproton rapidity density is found to scale approximately with the negative hadron multiplicity density.
The balance function is a new observable based on the principle that charge is locally conserved when particles are pair produced. Balance functions have been measured for charged particle pairs and identified charged pion pairs in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider using STAR. Balance functions for peripheral collisions have widths consistent with model predictions based on a superposition of nucleon-nucleon scattering. Widths in central collisions are smaller, consistent with trends predicted by models incorporating late hadronization.
Azimuthal anisotropy (v2) and two-particle angular correlations of high pT charged hadrons have been measured in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV for transverse momenta up to 6 GeV/c, where hard processes are expected to contribute significantly. The two-particle angular correlations exhibit elliptic flow and a structure suggestive of fragmentation of high pT partons. The monotonic rise of v2(pT) for pT<2 GeV/c is consistent with collective hydrodynamical flow calculations. At pT>3 GeV/c, a saturation of v2 is observed which persists up to pT=6 GeV/c.
Azimuthal anisotropy (v2) and two-particle angular correlations of high pT charged hadrons have been measured in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV for transverse momenta up to 6 GeV/c, where hard processes are expected to contribute significantly. The two-particle angular correlations exhibit elliptic flow and a structure suggestive of fragmentation of high pT partons. The monotonic rise of v2(pT) for pT<2 GeV/c is consistent with collective hydrodynamical flow calculations. At pT>3 GeV/c, a saturation of v2 is observed which persists up to pT=6 GeV/c.
Elliptic flow holds much promise for studying the early-time thermalization attained in ultrarelativistic nuclear collisions. Flow measurements also provide a means of distinguishing between hydrodynamic models and calculations which approach the low density (dilute gas) limit. Among the effects that can complicate the interpretation of elliptic flow measurements are azimuthal correlations that are unrelated to the reaction plane (nonflow correlations). Using data for Au + Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV from the STAR time projection chamber, it is found that four-particle correlation analyses can reliably separate flow and nonflow correlation signals. The latter account for on average about 15% of the observed second-harmonic azimuthal correlation, with the largest relative contribution for the most peripheral and the most central collisions. The results are also corrected for the effect of flow variations within centrality bins. This effect is negligible for all but the most central bin, where the correction to the elliptic flow is about a factor of 2. A simple new method for two-particle flow analysis based on scalar products is described. An analysis based on the distribution of the magnitude of the flow vector is also described.
We report the first observation of K*(892)0--> pi K in relativistic heavy ion collisions. The transverse momentum spectrum of (K*0+K*0)/2 from central Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV is presented. The ratios of the K*0 yield derived from these data to the yields of negative hadrons, charged kaons, and phi mesons have been measured in central and minimum bias collisions and compared with model predictions and comparable e+e-, pp, and p-barp results. The data indicate no dramatic reduction of K*0 production in relativistic heavy ion collisions despite expected losses due to rescattering effects.
The STAR Collaboration reports the first observation of exclusive rho 0 photoproduction, AuAu-->AuAu rho 0, and rho 0 production accompanied by mutual nuclear Coulomb excitation, AuAu-->Au [star] Au [star] rho 0, in ultraperipheral heavy-ion collisions. The rho 0 have low transverse momenta, consistent with coherent coupling to both nuclei. The cross sections at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV agree with theoretical predictions treating rho 0 production and Coulomb excitation as independent processes.
We report STAR results on the azimuthal anisotropy parameter v2 for strange particles K0S, Lambda , and Lambda -bar at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The value of v2 as a function of transverse momentum, pt, of the produced particle and collision centrality is presented for both particles up to pt~3.0 GeV/c. A strong pt dependence in v2 is observed up to 2.0 GeV/c. The v2 measurement is compared with hydrodynamic model calculations. The physics implications of the pt integrated v2 magnitude as a function of particle mass are also discussed.
Inclusive transverse momentum distributions of charged hadrons within 0.2<pT<6.0 GeV/c have been measured over a broad range of centrality for Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV. Hadron yields are suppressed at high pT in central collisions relative to peripheral collisions and to a nucleon-nucleon reference scaled for collision geometry. Peripheral collisions are not suppressed relative to the nucleon-nucleon reference. The suppression varies continuously at intermediate centralities. The results indicate significant nuclear medium effects on high-pT hadron production in heavy-ion collisions at high energy.
We report the first measurement of strange ( Lambda ) and antistrange ( Lambda -bar) baryon production from sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV Au+Au collisions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Rapidity density and transverse mass distributions at midrapidity are presented as a function of centrality. The yield of Lambda and Lambda -bar hyperons is found to be approximately proportional to the number of negative hadrons. The production of Lambda -bar hyperons relative to negative hadrons increases very rapidly with transverse momentum. The magnitude of the increase cannot be described by existing hadronic string fragmentation models alone.
Data from the first physics run at the Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider at Brookhaven National Laboratory, Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV, have been analyzed by the STAR Collaboration using three-pion correlations with charged pions to study whether pions are emitted independently at freeze-out. We have made a high-statistics measurement of the three-pion correlation function and calculated the normalized three-particle correlator to obtain a quantitative measurement of the degree of chaoticity of the pion source. It is found that the degree of chaoticity seems to increase with increasing particle multiplicity.
The transverse mass spectra and midrapidity yields for Xi s and Omega s are presented. For the 10% most central collisions, the Xi -bar+/h- ratio increases from the Super Proton Synchrotron to the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider energies while the Xi -/h- stays approximately constant. A hydrodynamically inspired model fit to the Xi spectra, which assumes a thermalized source, seems to indicate that these multistrange particles experience a significant transverse flow effect, but are emitted when the system is hotter and the flow is smaller than values obtained from a combined fit to pi , K, p, and Lambda s.
We model the motives for residents of a country to hold foreign assets, including the precautionary motive that has been omitted from much previous literature as intractable. Our model captures many of the principal insights from the existing specialized literature on the precautionary motive, deriving a convenient formula for the economy’s target value of assets. The target is the level of assets that balances impatience, prudence, risk, intertemporal substitution, and the rate of return. We use the model to shed light on two topical questions: The “upstream” flows of capital from developing countries to advanced countries, and the long-run impact of resorbing global financial imbalances
We present a tractable model of the effects of nonfinancial risk on intertemporal choice. Our purpose is to provide a simple framework that can be adopted in fields like representative-agent macroeconomics, corporate finance, or political economy, where most modelers have chosen not to incorporate serious nonfinancial risk because available methods were too complex to yield transparent insights. Our model produces an intuitive analytical formula for target assets, and we show how to analyze transition dynamics using a familiar Ramsey-style phase diagram. Despite its starkness, our model captures most of the key implications of nonfinancial risk for intertemporal choice.
American households have received a triple dose of bad news since the beginning of the current recession: The greatest collapse in asset values since the Great Depression, a sharp tightening in credit availability, and a large increase in unemployment risk. We present measures of the size of these shocks and discuss what a benchmark theory says about their immediate and ultimate consequences. We then provide a forecast based on a simple empirical model that captures the effects of wealth shocks and unemployment fears. Our short-term forecast calls for somewhat weaker spending, and somewhat higher saving rates, than the Consensus survey of macroeconomic forecasters. Over the longer term, our best guess is that the personal saving rate will eventually approach the levels that preceded period of financial liberalization that began in the late 1970s. Classification: C61, D11, E24
The budget constraint requires that, eventually, consumption must adjust fully to any permanent shock to income. Intuition suggests that, knowing this, optimizing agents will fully adjust their spending immediately upon experiencing a permanent shock. However, this paper shows that if consumers are impatient and are subject to transitory as well as permanent shocks, the optimal marginal propensity to consume out of permanent shocks (the MPCP) is strictly less than 1, because buffer stock savers have a target wealth-to-permanent-income ratio; a positive shock to permanent income moves the ratio below its target, temporarily boosting saving. Keywords: Risk, Uncertainty, Consumption, Precautionary Saving, Buffer Stock Saving, Permanent Income Hypothesis.
This paper introduces a method for solving numerical dynamic stochastic optimization problems that avoids rootfinding operations. The idea is applicable to many microeconomic and macroeconomic problems, including life cycle, buffer-stock, and stochastic growth problems. Software is provided. Klassifikation: C6, D9, E2 . July 28, 2005.
We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (1960s–1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s–2007), and recent substantial rise (2008–2011) can be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the long-term saving decline, while fluctuations in wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.
This paper explains why the collection of panel (reinterview) data on a comprehensive measure of household expenditures is of great value both for measuring budget shares (the core mission of a Consumer Expenditure survey) and for the most important research and public policy uses to which CE data can be applied, including construction of spending-based measures of poverty and inequality and estimating the effects of fiscal policy.
The Great Recession confirmed a bedrock principle of modern consumption theory: It is impossible to explain aggregate spending behavior without knowledge of the underlying microeconomic distribution of circumstances and choices across households. National accounting frameworks therefore need to be augmented by “bottom up” measures that both (a) capture the microeconomic heterogeneity (in expenditures, income, assets, debt, and beliefs) in the population and (b) sum up to statistics that have a recognizable relationship to the aggregate totals that are already reasonably well measured.
We estimate the degree of 'stickiness' in aggregate consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits) for thirteen advanced economies. We find that, after controlling for measurement error, consumption growth has a high degree of autocorrelation, with a stickiness parameter of about 0.7 on average across countries. The sticky-consumption-growth model outperforms the random walk model of Hall (1978), and typically fits the data better than the popular Campbell and Mankiw (1989) model. In several countries, the sticky-consumption-growth and Campbell-Mankiw models work about equally well.
This paper presents a simple new method for estimating the size of ‘wealth effects’ on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the well-documented sluggishness of consumption growth (often interpreted as ‘habits’ in the asset pricing literature) to distinguish between short-run and long-run wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next-quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final long-run effect around 9 cents. Consistent with several recent studies, we find a housing wealth effect that is substantially larger than the stock wealth effect. We believe that our approach is preferable to the currently popular cointegrationbased estimation methods, because neither theory nor evidence justifies faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector. JEL Classification: E21, E32, C22