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This paper reports on Monte Carlo simulation results for future measurements of the moduli of time-like proton electromagnetic form factors, |GE | and |GM|, using the ¯pp → μ+μ− reaction at PANDA (FAIR). The electromagnetic form factors are fundamental quantities parameterizing the electric and magnetic structure of hadrons. This work estimates the statistical and total accuracy with which the form factors can be measured at PANDA, using an analysis of simulated data within the PandaRoot software framework. The most crucial background channel is ¯pp → π+π−,due to the very similar behavior of muons and pions in the detector. The suppression factors are evaluated for this and all other relevant background channels at different values of antiproton beam momentum. The signal/background separation is based on a multivariate analysis, using the Boosted Decision Trees method. An expected background subtraction is included in this study, based on realistic angular distribuations of the background contribution. Systematic uncertainties are considered and the relative total uncertainties of the form factor measurements are presented.
Background: The aim is to investigate to what extent the different oral protections compared to the habitual occlusion affect the upper body posture in statics and during taekwondo-specific movement.
Methods: 12 Taekwondoka (5 f/7 m) of German national team were measured by using a 3d back scanner and an ultrasonic distance measuring (upright stand, taekwondo attack and defense movement, two taekwondo specific combinations) in habitual occlusion, with a custom-made and ready-made mouth protection
Results: There are no significant changes in the upper body posture (p ≥ 0.05). Depending on the dynamic measurements, different significant reactions of the spinal position were found while wearing the custom made mouthguard or the ready-made mouthguard according to the conducted movement.
Conclusion: The measured changes in dynamic movements are not clinical relevant. Based on the positive responses from the participants, the custom-made mouth protection can be recommended combined with an individual analysis.
The Transition Radiation Detector (TRD) was designed and built to enhance the capabilities of the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). While aimed at providing electron identification and triggering, the TRD also contributes significantly to the track reconstruction and calibration in the central barrel of ALICE. In this paper the design, construction, operation, and performance of this detector are discussed. A pion rejection factor of up to 410 is achieved at a momentum of 1 GeV/c in p-Pb collisions and the resolution at high transverse momentum improves by about 40% when including the TRD information in track reconstruction. The triggering capability is demonstrated both for jet, light nuclei, and electron selection.
The Transition Radiation Detector (TRD) was designed and built to enhance the capabilities of the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). While aimed at providing electron identification and triggering, the TRD also contributes significantly to the track reconstruction and calibration in the central barrel of ALICE. In this paper the design, construction, operation, and performance of this detector are discussed. A pion rejection factor of up to 410 is achieved at a momentum of 1 GeV/c in p-Pb collisions and the resolution at high transverse momentum improves by about 40% when including the TRD information in track reconstruction. The triggering capability is demonstrated both for jet, light nuclei, and electron selection.
The Transition Radiation Detector (TRD) was designed and built to enhance the capabilities of the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). While aimed at providing electron identification and triggering, the TRD also contributes significantly to the track reconstruction and calibration in the central barrel of ALICE. In this paper the design, construction, operation, and performance of this detector are discussed. A pion rejection factor of up to 410 is achieved at a momentum of 1 GeV/c in p–Pb collisions and the resolution at high transverse momentum improves by about 40% when including the TRD information in track reconstruction. The triggering capability is demonstrated both for jet, light nuclei, and electron selection.
Objective: Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has markedly increased survival and quality of life in people living with HIV. With the advent of new treatment options, including single-tablet regimens, durability and efficacy of first-line cART regimens are evolving.
Methods: We analyzed data from the prospective multicenter German Clinical Surveillance of HIV Disease (ClinSurv) cohort of the Robert-Koch Institute. Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were run to examine the factors associated with treatment modification. Recovery after treatment initiation was analyzed comparing pre-cART viral load and CD4+ T-cell counts with follow-up data.
Results: We included 8788 patients who initiated cART between 2005 and 2017. The sample population was predominantly male (n = 7040; 80.1%), of whom 4470 (63.5%) were reporting sex with men as the transmission risk factor. Overall, 4210 (47.9%) patients modified their first-line cART after a median time of 63 months (IQR 59–66). Regimens containing integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTI) were associated with significantly lower rates of treatment modification (adjusted hazard ratio 0.44; 95% CI 0.39–0.50) compared to protease inhibitor (PI)-based regimens. We found a decreased durability of first-line cART significantly associated with being female, a low CD4+ T-cell count, cART initiation in the later period (2011–2017), being on a multi-tablet regimen (MTR).
Conclusions: Drug class and MTRs are significantly associated with treatment modification. INSTI-based regimens showed to be superior compared to PI-based regimens in terms of durability.
Correction to: Infection (2020) 48:723–733 https://doi.org/10.1007/s15010-020-01469-6. The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake. In this article the authors Dirk Schürmann at affiliation Charité, University Medicine, Berlin, Olaf Degen at affiliation University Clinic Hamburg Eppendorf, Hamburg and Heinz-August Horst at affiliation University Hospital Schleswig–Holstein, Kiel, Germany were missing from the author list. The original article has been corrected.
Background and Aims: Monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1) is a potent chemoattractant for monocytes. It is involved in pathogenesis of several inflammatory diseases. Hepatic MCP-1 is a readout of macrophage activation. While inflammation is a major driver of liver disease progression, the origin and role of circulating MCP-1 as a biomarker remains unclear.
Methods: Hepatic CC-chemokine ligand 2 (CCL2) expression and F4/80 staining for Kupffer cells were measured and correlated in a mouse model of chronic liver disease (inhalative CCl4 for 7 weeks). Next, hepatic RNA levels of CCL2 were measured in explanted livers of 39 patients after transplantation and correlated with severity of disease. Changes in MCP-1 were further evaluated in a rat model of experimental cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Finally, we analyzed portal and hepatic vein levels of MCP-1 in patients receiving transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt insertion for complications of portal hypertension.
Results: In this mouse model of fibrotic hepatitis, hepatic expression of CCL2 (P = 0.009) and the amount of F4/80 positive cells in the liver (P < 0.001) significantly increased after induction of hepatitis by CCl4 compared to control animals. Moreover, strong correlation of hepatic CCL2 expression and F4/80 positive cells were seen (P = 0.023). Furthermore, in human liver explants, hepatic transcription levels of CCL2 correlated with the MELD score of the patients, and thus disease severity (P = 0.007). The experimental model of ACLF in rats revealed significantly higher levels of MCP-1 plasma (P = 0.028) and correlation of hepatic CCL2 expression (R = 0.69, P = 0.003). Particularly, plasma MCP-1 levels did not correlate with peripheral blood monocyte CCL2 expression. Finally, higher levels of MCP-1 were observed in the hepatic compared to the portal vein (P = 0.01) in patients receiving TIPS. Similarly, a positive correlation of MCP-1 with Child-Pugh score was observed (P = 0.018). Further, in the presence of ACLF, portal and hepatic vein levels of MCP-1 were significantly higher compared to patients without ACLF (both P = 0.039).
Conclusion: Circulating levels of MCP-1 mainly derive from the injured liver and are associated with severity of liver disease. Therefore, liver macrophages contribute significantly to disease progression. Circulating MCP-1 may reflect the extent of hepatic macrophage activation.
Acute deterioration of liver cirrhosis (e.g., infections, acute‐on‐chronic liver failure [ACLF]) requires an increase in cardiac contractility. The insufficiency to respond to these situations could be deleterious. Left ventricular global longitudinal strain (LV‐GLS) has been shown to reflect left cardiac contractility in cirrhosis better than other parameters and might bear prognostic value. Therefore, this retrospective study investigated the role of LV‐GLS in the outcome after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) and the development of ACLF. We included 114 patients (48 female patients) from the Noninvasive Evaluation Program for TIPS and Their Follow‐Up Network (NEPTUN) cohort. This number provided sufficient quality and structured follow‐up with the possibility of calculating major scores (Child, Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease [MELD], Chronic Liver Failure Consortium acute decompensation [CLIF‐C AD] scores) and recording of the events (development of decompensation episode and ACLF). We analyzed the association of LV‐GLS with overall mortality and development of ACLF in patients with TIPS. LV‐GLS was independently associated with overall mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.123; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.010‐1.250) together with aspartate aminotransferase (HR, 1.009; 95% CI, 1.004‐1.014) and CLIF‐C AD score (HR, 1.080; 95% CI, 1.018‐1.137). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis for LV‐GLS for overall survival showed higher area under the curve (AUC) than MELD and CLIF‐C AD scores (AUC, 0.688 versus 0.646 and 0.573, respectively). The best AUROC‐determined LV‐GLS cutoff was −16.6% to identify patients with a significantly worse outcome after TIPS at 3 months, 6 months, and overall. LV‐GLS was independently associated with development of ACLF (HR, 1.613; 95% CI, 1.025‐2.540) together with a MELD score above 15 (HR, 2.222; 95% CI, 1.400‐3.528). Conclusion: LV‐GLS is useful for identifying patients at risk of developing ACLF and a worse outcome after TIPS. Although validation is required, this tool might help to stratify risk in patients receiving TIPS.
Background & Aims: Renal function assessed by creatinine is a key prognostic factor in cirrhotic patients. However, creatinine is influenced by several factors, rendering interpretation difficult in some situations. This is especially important in early stages of renal dysfunction where renal impairment might not be accompanied by an increase in creatinine. Other parameters, such as cystatin C (CysC) and beta‐trace protein (BTP), have been evaluated to fill this gap. However, none of these studies have considered the role of the patient's sex. The present study analysed CysC and BTP to evaluate their prognostic value and differentiate them according to sex.
Patients and methods: CysC and BTP were measured in 173 transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS)‐patients from the NEPTUN‐STUDY(NCT03628807) and analysed their relationship with mortality and sex. Propensity score for age, MELD, etiology and TIPS indication was used.
Results_ Cystatin C and BTP showed excellent correlations with creatinine values at baseline and follow‐up. CysC was an independent predictor of overall mortality (HR = 1.66(1.33‐2.06)) with an AUC of 0.75 and identified a cut‐off of 1.55 mg/L in the whole cohort. Interestingly, CysC was significantly lower in females, also after propensity score matching. In males, the only independent predictor was the creatinine level (HR = 1.54(1.25‐1.58)), while in females CysC levels independently predicted mortality (HR = 3.17(1.34‐7.52)).
Conclusion: This study demonstrates for the first time that in TIPS‐patients creatinine predicts mortality in males better than in females, whereas CysC is a better predictor of mortality in females. These results may influence future clinical decisions on therapeutic options for example, allocation for liver transplantation in TIPS‐patients.
Significant reductions in stratospheric ozone occur inside the polar vortices each spring when chlorine radicals produced by heterogeneous reactions on cold particle surfaces in winter destroy ozone mainly in two catalytic cycles, the ClO dimer cycle and the ClO/BrO cycle. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are responsible for most of the chlorine currently present in the stratosphere, have been banned by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and the ozone layer is predicted to recover to 1980 levels within the next few decades. During the same period, however, climate change is expected to alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere, and possible geo-engineering ventures to mitigate climate change may lead to additional changes. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to such influences requires the correct representation of all relevant processes. The European project RECONCILE has comprehensively addressed remaining questions in the context of polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify the rates of some of the most relevant, yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes. To this end RECONCILE used a broad approach of laboratory experiments, two field missions in the Arctic winter 2009/10 employing the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica and an extensive match ozone sonde campaign, as well as microphysical and chemical transport modelling and data assimilation. Some of the main outcomes of RECONCILE are as follows: (1) vortex meteorology: the 2009/10 Arctic winter was unusually cold at stratospheric levels during the six-week period from mid-December 2009 until the end of January 2010, with reduced transport and mixing across the polar vortex edge; polar vortex stability and how it is influenced by dynamic processes in the troposphere has led to unprecedented, synoptic-scale stratospheric regions with temperatures below the frost point; in these regions stratospheric ice clouds have been observed, extending over >106km2 during more than 3 weeks. (2) Particle microphysics: heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles in the absence of ice has been unambiguously demonstrated; conversely, the synoptic scale ice clouds also appear to nucleate heterogeneously; a variety of possible heterogeneous nuclei has been characterised by chemical analysis of the non-volatile fraction of the background aerosol; substantial formation of solid particles and denitrification via their sedimentation has been observed and model parameterizations have been improved. (3) Chemistry: strong evidence has been found for significant chlorine activation not only on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) but also on cold binary aerosol; laboratory experiments and field data on the ClOOCl photolysis rate and other kinetic parameters have been shown to be consistent with an adequate degree of certainty; no evidence has been found that would support the existence of yet unknown chemical mechanisms making a significant contribution to polar ozone loss. (4) Global modelling: results from process studies have been implemented in a prognostic chemistry climate model (CCM); simulations with improved parameterisations of processes relevant for polar ozone depletion are evaluated against satellite data and other long term records using data assimilation and detrended fluctuation analysis. Finally, measurements and process studies within RECONCILE were also applied to the winter 2010/11, when special meteorological conditions led to the highest chemical ozone loss ever observed in the Arctic. In addition to quantifying the 2010/11 ozone loss and to understand its causes including possible connections to climate change, its impacts were addressed, such as changes in surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the densely populated northern mid-latitudes.
The international research project RECONCILE has addressed central questions regarding polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify some of the most relevant yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes and thereby improve prognostic modelling capabilities to realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to climate change. This overview paper outlines the scope and the general approach of RECONCILE, and it provides a summary of observations and modelling in 2010 and 2011 that have generated an in many respects unprecedented dataset to study processes in the Arctic winter stratosphere. Principally, it summarises important outcomes of RECONCILE including (i) better constraints and enhanced consistency on the set of parameters governing catalytic ozone destruction cycles, (ii) a better understanding of the role of cold binary aerosols in heterogeneous chlorine activation, (iii) an improved scheme of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processes that includes heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and ice on non-volatile background aerosol leading to better model parameterisations with respect to denitrification, and (iv) long transient simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) updated based on the results of RECONCILE that better reproduce past ozone trends in Antarctica and are deemed to produce more reliable predictions of future ozone trends. The process studies and the global simulations conducted in RECONCILE show that in the Arctic, ozone depletion uncertainties in the chemical and microphysical processes are now clearly smaller than the sensitivity to dynamic variability.
Recent developments in typology which put the notions of linguistic function and operation into the focus of interest and establish them as the ultimate base on which languages are comparable prove fruitful for contrastive linguistics. The functional approach is illustrated in a contrastive analysis of Persian and German relative clauses. In a sketch of the theory of the relative clause, four grammatical functions to be fulfilled by relative constructions are deduced, and the two languages are compared with respect to the various ways in which they realize them. Learning problems can thus be predicted with greater confidence, be explained more satisfactorily, and be remedied more efficiently, because they are seen as learner's attempts to transfer, beside the underlying functions and operations, which the languages do have in common, the techniques of their realization, which they do not have in common.
Das hier vorgestellte Schlagwortkatalogsystem ist die Zusammenfassung diverser Vorarbeiten, die, teilweise in Verbindung mit Seminaren, Übungen und dem Kölner Universalienprojekt, in den vergangenen Semestern am Institut für Sprachwissenschaft der Universität Köln durchgeführt wurden, um Methoden einer effizienten wissenschaftlichen Dokumentation zu erarbeiten und zu erproben. Vor etwa einem Jahr wurde mit dem Aufbau eines entsprechenden Schlagwortkatalogs begonnen, für dessen Benutzer dieses Papier erstellt worden ist. Wir glauben jedoch, auch demjenigen, der nicht mit unserem Kölner Katalog arbeitet, Anregungen zur Verarbeitung wissenschaftlicher Information geben zu können.
Das achte der von Schumann unter dem Namen "Dichterliebe" zusammengefaßten und vertonten Heine-Gedichte – "Und wüßten's die Blumen, die kleinen" – soll im folgenden einer Teilanalyse unterzogen werden. Wenn damit auch ein kleiner Beitrag zu dem im Rahmen einer semiotischen Theorie zu behandelnden allgemeinen Problem der Systembeziehungen zwischen Sprache und Musik geleistet werden soll, indem einer solchen Theorie in einer empirischen Untersuchung voranalysiertes Material zur Verfügung gestellt wird, so steht im Mittelpunkt des Interesses doch bloß jenes Lied für sich. Dies bedingt eine Verlagerung des Gesichtspunktes, unter dem das genannte Problem gesehen wird, vom System auf die Struktur, im Hjelmslev'schen Sinne. Die strukturellen Eigenschaften von Heines Gedicht werden verglichen mit denen von Schumanns Vertonung, es werden Beziehungen zwischen dem textuellen und dem musikalischen Ablauf aufgedeckt.
At the end of last year, I designed an inquiry about the present state of linguistic typology in the form of a questionnaire. It was an attempt to cover the whole field by formulating the questions which seemed most relevant to it. This questionnaire is reproduced, without modifications, following this preface. In the first days of this year, it was sent to 33 linguists who I know are working in the field. The purpose was to form, on the basis of responses received, a picture of convergences and divergences among trends of present-day linguistic typology. The idea was also to get an objective basis for my report on "The present state of linguistic typology", to be delivered at the XIII. International Congress of Linguistics at Tokyo, 1982.
I shall use the precise term 'interlinear morphemic translation (IMT) to designate the object of this study. [...] An IMT is a translation of a text in a language L1 to a string of elements taken from L2 where, ideally, each morpheme of the L1 text is rendered by a morpheme of L2 or a configuration of symbols representing its meaning and where the sequence of the units of the translation corresponds to the sequence of the morphemes which they render. [...] An IMT is needed whenever it is essential that the reader grasp the grammatical structure of the L1 text but is presumed to be so unfamiliar with L1 that he will not be able to do so merely with the aid of a normal translation and the context in which the text is cited. [...] The primary aim of an IMT is to make the grammatical structure of the L1 text transparent. The textual fluency of the IMT by standards of the L2 grammar is a subordinate aim at best.
Cephalization is a major innovation of animal evolution and implies a synchronization of nervous system, mouth, and foregut polarization to align alimentary tract and sensomotoric system for effective foraging. However, the underlying integration of morphogenetic programs is poorly understood. Here, we show that invagination of neuroectoderm through de novo polarization and apical constriction creates the mouth opening in the Caenorhabditis elegans embryo. Simultaneously, all 18 juxta-oral sensory organ dendritic tips become symmetrically positioned around the mouth: While the two bilaterally symmetric amphid sensilla endings are towed to the mouth opening, labial and cephalic sensilla become positioned independently. Dendrite towing is enabled by the pre-polarized sensory amphid pores intercalating into the leading edge of the anteriorly migrating epidermal sheet, while apical constriction-mediated cell–cell re-arrangements mediate positioning of all other sensory organs. These two processes can be separated by gradual inactivation of the 26S proteasome activator, RPN-6.1. Moreover, RPN- 6.1 also shows a dose-dependent requirement for maintenance of coordinated apical polarization of other organs with apical lumen, the pharynx, and the intestine. Thus, our data unveil integration of morphogenetic programs during the coordination of alimentary tract and sensory organ formation and suggest that this process requires tight control of ubiquitin-dependent protein degradation.
Yeast large ribosomal subunit (LSU) precursors are subject to substantial changes in protein composition during their maturation due to coordinated transient interactions with a large number of ribosome biogenesis factors and due to the assembly of ribosomal proteins. These compositional changes go along with stepwise processing of LSU rRNA precursors and with specific rRNA folding events, as revealed by recent cryo-electron microscopy analyses of late nuclear and cytoplasmic LSU precursors. Here we aimed to analyze changes in the spatial rRNA surrounding of selected ribosomal proteins during yeast LSU maturation. For this we combined a recently developed tethered tertiary structure probing approach with both targeted and high throughput readout strategies. Several structural features of late LSU precursors were faithfully detected by this procedure. In addition, the obtained data let us suggest that early rRNA precursor processing events are accompanied by a global transition from a flexible to a spatially restricted rRNA conformation. For intermediate LSU precursors a number of structural hallmarks could be addressed which include the fold of the internal transcribed spacer between 5.8S rRNA and 25S rRNA, the orientation of the central protuberance and the spatial organization of the interface between LSU rRNA domains I and III.
Selfish genetic elements that act as post-segregation distorters cause lethality in non-carrier individuals after fertilization. Two post-segregation distorters have been previously identified in Caenorhabditis elegans, the peel-1/zeel-1 and the sup-35/pha-1 elements. These elements seem to act as modification-rescue systems, also called toxin/antidote pairs. Here we show that the maternal-effect toxin/zygotic antidote pair sup-35/pha-1 is required for proper expression of apical junction (AJ) components in epithelia and that sup-35 toxicity increases when pathways that establish and maintain basal epithelial characteristics, die-1, elt-1, lin-26, and vab-10, are compromised. We demonstrate that pha-1(e2123) embryos, which lack the antidote, are defective in epidermal morphogenesis and frequently fail to elongate. Moreover, seam cells are frequently misshaped and mispositioned and cell bond tension is reduced in pha-1(e2123) embryos, suggesting altered tissue material properties in the epidermis. Several aspects of this phenotype can also be induced in wild-type embryos by exerting mechanical stress through uniaxial loading. Seam cell shape, tissue mechanics, and elongation can be restored in pha-1(e2123) embryos if expression of the AJ molecule DLG-1/Discs large is reduced. Thus, our experiments suggest that maternal-effect toxicity disrupts proper development of the epidermis which involves distinct transcriptional regulators and AJ components.
We present an effort for the development of multilingual named entity grammars in a unification-based finite-state formalism (SProUT). Following an extended version of the MUC7 standard, we have developed Named Entity Recognition grammars for German, Chinese, Japanese, French, Spanish, English, and Czech. The grammars recognize person names, organizations, geographical locations, currency, time and date expressions. Subgrammars and gazetteers are shared as much as possible for the grammars of the different languages. Multilingual corpora from the business domain are used for grammar development and evaluation. The annotation format (named entity and other linguistic information) is described. We present an evaluation tool which provides detailed statistics and diagnostics, allows for partial matching of annotations, and supports user-defined mappings between different annotation and grammar output formats.
Background: The aim of this study was to compare outcome of patients with previous cardiac surgery undergoing transapical aortic valve implantation (Redo-TAVI) to those undergoing classic aortic valve replacement (Redo-AVR) by using propensity analysis.
Methods: From January 2005 through May 2012, 52 high-risk patients underwent Redo-TAVI using a pericardial xenograft fixed within a stainless steel, balloon-expandable stent (Edwards SAPIEN™). During the same period of time 167 patients underwent classic Redo-AVR. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify covariates among 11 baseline patient variables including the type of initial surgery. Using the significant regression coefficients, each patient’s propensity score was calculated, allowing selectively matched subgroups of 40 patients each. Initial surgery included coronary artery bypass grafting in 30 patients, aortic valve replacement in 7 patients and mitral valve reconstruction in 3 patients in each group. Follow-up was 4 ± 2 years and was 100% complete.
Results: Postoperative chest tube drainage (163 ± 214 vs. 562 ± 332 ml/24 h, p = 0.02) and incidence of early permanent neurologic deficit (0 vs. 13%, p = 0.04) was lower in patients with Redo-TAVI and there was a trend towards improved 30-day survival (p = 0.06). Also we detected a decreased ventilation time (p = 0.04) and lower transfusion rate of allogenic blood products (p ≤ 0.05) in the Redo-TAVI group. At late follow up differences regarding incidence of major adverse events, including death and permanent neurologic deficits (25% vs. 43%, p = 0.01) statistically supported early postoperative findings.
Conclusion: The encouraging results regarding early and long-term outcomes following TAVI in patients with previous cardiac surgery show, that this evolving approach may be particularly beneficial in this patient cohort.
Background: Computed tomography (CT) allows estimation of coronary artery calcium (CAC) progression. We evaluated several progression algorithms in our unselected, population-based cohort for risk prediction of coronary and cardiovascular events.
Methods: In 3281 participants (45–74 years of age), free from cardiovascular disease until the second visit, risk factors, and CTs at baseline (b) and after a mean of 5.1 years (5y) were measured. Hard coronary and cardiovascular events, and total cardiovascular events including revascularization, as well, were recorded during a follow-up time of 7.8±2.2 years after the second CT. The added predictive value of 10 CAC progression algorithms on top of risk factors including baseline CAC was evaluated by using survival analysis, C-statistics, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination index. A subgroup analysis of risk in CAC categories was performed.
Results: We observed 85 (2.6%) hard coronary, 161 (4.9%) hard cardiovascular, and 241 (7.3%) total cardiovascular events. Absolute CAC progression was higher with versus without subsequent coronary events (median, 115 [Q1–Q3, 23–360] versus 8 [0–83], P<0.0001; similar for hard/total cardiovascular events). Some progression algorithms added to the predictive value of baseline CT and risk assessment in terms of C-statistic or integrated discrimination index, especially for total cardiovascular events. However, CAC progression did not improve models including CAC5y and 5-year risk factors. An excellent prognosis was found for 921 participants with double-zero CACb=CAC5y=0 (10-year coronary and hard/total cardiovascular risk: 1.4%, 2.0%, and 2.8%), which was for participants with incident CAC 1.8%, 3.8%, and 6.6%, respectively. When CACb progressed from 1 to 399 to CAC5y≥400, coronary and total cardiovascular risk were nearly 2-fold in comparison with subjects who remained below CAC5y=400. Participants with CACb≥400 had high rates of hard coronary and hard/total cardiovascular events (10-year risk: 12.0%, 13.5%, and 30.9%, respectively).
Conclusions: CAC progression is associated with coronary and cardiovascular event rates, but adds only weakly to risk prediction. What counts is the most recent CAC value and risk factor assessment. Therefore, a repeat scan >5 years after the first scan may be of additional value, except when a double-zero CT scan is present or when the subjects are already at high risk.
Background and Aims: The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibodies in Germany has been estimated to be in the range of 0.4–0.63%. Screening for HCV is recommended in patients with elevated ALT levels or significant risk factors for HCV transmission only. However, 15–30% of patients report no risk factors and ALT levels can be normal in up to 20–30% of patients with chronic HCV infection. The aim of this study was to assess the HCV seroprevalence in patients visiting two tertiary care emergency departments in Berlin and Frankfurt, respectively.
Methods: Between May 2008 and March 2010, a total of 28,809 consecutive patients were screened for the presence of anti-HCV antibodies. Anti-HCV positive sera were subsequently tested for HCV-RNA.
Results: The overall HCV seroprevalence was 2.6% (95% CI: 2.4–2.8; 2.4% in Berlin and 3.5% in Frankfurt). HCV-RNA was detectable in 68% of anti-HCV positive cases. Thus, the prevalence of chronic HCV infection in the overall study population was 1.6% (95% CI 1.5–1.8). The most commonly reported risk factor was former/current injection drug use (IDU; 31.2%) and those with IDU as the main risk factor were significantly younger than patients without IDU (p<0.001) and the male-to-female ratio was 72% (121 vs. 46 patients; p<0.001). Finally, 18.8% of contacted HCV-RNA positive patients had not been diagnosed previously.
Conclusions: The HCV seroprevalence was more than four times higher compared to current estimates and almost one fifth of contacted HCV-RNA positive patients had not been diagnosed previously.