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Introduction: On-treatment HCV RNA measurements are crucial for the prediction of a sustained virological response (SVR) and to determine treatment futility during protease inhibitor-based triple therapies. In patients with advanced liver disease an accurate risk/benefit calculation based on reliable HCV RNA results can reduce the number of adverse events. However, the different available HCV RNA assays vary in their diagnostic performance.
Aim: To investigate the clinical relevance of concordant and discordant results of two HCV RNA assays during triple therapy with boceprevir and telaprevir in patients with advanced liver fibrosis/cirrhosis.
Methods: We collected on-treatment samples of 191 patients with advanced liver fibrosis/cirrhosis treated at four European centers for testing with the Abbott RealTime (ART) and COBAS AmpliPrep/COBAS TaqMan HCV v2.0 (CTM) assays.
Results: Discordant test results for HCV RNA detectability were observed in 23% at week 4, 17% at week 8/12 and 9% at week 24 on-treatment. The ART detected HCV RNA in 41% of week 4 samples tested negative by the CTM. However, the positive predictive value of an undetectable week 4 result for SVR was similar for both assays (80% and 82%). Discordance was also found for application of stopping rules. In 27% of patients who met stopping rules by CTM the ART measured levels below the respective cut-offs of 100 and 1000 IU/ml, respectively, which would have resulted in treatment continuation. In contrast, in nine patients with negative HCV RNA by CTM at week 24 treatment would have been discontinued due to detectable residual HCV RNA by the ART assay. Importantly, only 4 of these patients failed to achieve SVR.
Conclusion: Application of stopping rules determined in approval studies by one assay to other HCV RNA assays in clinical practice may lead to over and undertreatment in a significant number of patients undergoing protease inhibitor-based triple therapy.
Background: HCV GT4 accounts for up to 20% of HCV infections worldwide. Simeprevir, given for 12 weeks as part of a 24- or 48-week combination regimen with PR is approved for the treatment of chronic HCV GT4 infection. Primary study objectives were assessment of efficacy and safety of simeprevir plus PR in treatment-naïve patients with HCV GT4 treated for 12 weeks. Primary efficacy outcome was sustained virologic response 12 weeks post-treatment (SVR12). Additional objectives included investigation of potential associations of rapid virologic response and baseline factors with SVR12.
Methods: This multicentre, open-label, single-arm study (NCT01846832) evaluated efficacy and safety of simeprevir plus PR in 67 patients with HCV GT4 infection. Patients were treatment-naïve, aged 18–70 years with METAVIR F0–F2 fibrosis. Patients with early virologic response (HCV RNA <25 IU/mL [detectable/undetectable in IL28B CC patients or undetectable in IL28B CT/TT patients] at Week 2 and undetectable at Weeks 4 and 8) were eligible to stop all treatment at the end of Week 12, otherwise PR therapy was continued to Week 24.
Results: Of 67 patients treated, 34 (51%) qualified for 12-week treatment including all but one patient with IL28B CC genotype (14/15). All patients in the 12-week group had undetectable HCV RNA at end of treatment, and 97% (33/34) achieved SVR12. No new safety signals with simeprevir plus PR were identified. The proportion of patients experiencing Grade 3–4 adverse events was lower in the 12-week group than in the 24-week group.
Conclusions: Our findings on simeprevir plus PR therapy shortened to 12 weeks in patients with HCV GT4 infection with favourable baseline characteristics and displaying early on-treatment virologic response are encouraging. No new safety signals were associated with simeprevir plus PR in this study.
Background: Shortening duration of peginterferon-based HCV treatment reduces associated burden for patients. Primary objectives of this study were to assess the efficacy against the minimally acceptable response rate 12 weeks post-treatment (SVR12) and safety of simeprevir plus PR in treatment-naïve HCV GT1 patients treated for 12 weeks. Additional objectives included the investigation of potential associations of rapid viral response and baseline factors with SVR12.
Methods: In this Phase III, open-label study in treatment-naïve HCV GT1 patients with F0–F2 fibrosis, patients with HCV-RNA <25 IU/mL (detectable/undetectable) at Week 2, and undetectable HCV-RNA at Weeks 4 and 8, stopped all treatment at Week 12. All other patients continued PR for a further 12 weeks. Baseline factors significantly associated with SVR12 were identified through logistic regression.
Results: Of 163 patients who participated in the study, 123 (75%) qualified for 12-week treatment; of these, 81 (66%) achieved SVR12. Baseline factors positively associated with SVR12 rates in patients receiving the 12-week regimen were: IL28B CC genotype: (94% SVR12); HCV RNA ≤800,000 IU/mL (82%); F0–F1 fibrosis (74%). Among all 163 patients, 94% experienced ≥1 adverse event (AE), 4% a serious AE, and 2.5% discontinued due to an AE. Reduced impairment in patient-reported outcomes was observed in the 12-week vs >12-week regimen.
Conclusions: Overall SVR12 rate (66%) was below the target of 80%, indicating that shortening of treatment with simeprevir plus PR to 12 weeks based on very early response is not effective. However, baseline factors associated with higher SVR12 rates were identified. Therefore, while Week 2 response alone is insufficient to predict efficacy, GT1 patients with favourable baseline factors may benefit from a shortened simeprevir plus PR regimen.
Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01846832
Background & Aims: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data.
Methods: A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections.
Results: If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0–30%), between 2016–2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15–56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population.
Conclusions: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden.
Lay summary: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.