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Moisture sources of heavy precipitation in Central Europe in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones
(2022)
During the past century, several extreme summer floods in Central Europe were associated with so-called Vb-cyclones propagating from the Mediterranean Sea north-eastward to Central Europe. The processes intensifying the precipitation in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones in the Danube, Elbe, and Odra catchments are only partially understood. Our study aims to investigate these processes with Lagrangian moisture-source diagnostics for 16 selected Vb-events. Moreover, we analyse the characteristics of typical moisture source regions during 1107 Vb-events from 1901 to 2010 based on ERA-20C reanalysis dynamically downscaled with COSMO-CLM+NEMO. We observe moisture contributions by various source regions highlighting the complex dynamical interplay of different air masses leading to moisture convergence in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones. Overall, up to 80% of the precipitation originates from the European continent, indicating the importance of continental moisture recycling, especially within the respective river catchment. Other major moisture uptake regions are the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the North Atlantic, and for a few events the Black Sea. Remarkably, anomalies in these oceanic source regions show no connection to precipitation amounts in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones. In contrast, the Vb-cyclones with the highest precipitation are associated with anomalously high evaporation in the Mediterranean Sea, even though the Mediterranean Sea is only a minor moisture source region on average. Interestingly, the evaporation anomalies are not connected with sea-surface temperature but with wind-speed anomalies (Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient R≈0.7, significant with p<0.01) indicating mainly dynamically driven evaporation. The particular role of the Mediterranean Sea hints towards possible importance of Mediterranean moisture for the early-stage intensification of Vb-cyclones and the pre-moistening of the continental uptake regions upstream of the target catchments.
Hydro-climatic causes of widespread floods in central Europe : on rain-on-snow and Vb-cyclone events
(2021)
The presented work investigates the hydro-meteorological and hydro-climatological drivers of widespread floods in Central Europe during the past century. Due to the strong seasonality of the detected flood drivers, the thesis is divided into two parts: the first part focuses on widespread winter floods and the second one on extreme summer floods. For analysing past flood events, we profited from the dynamically downscaled centennial ERA-20C reanalysis (continuously from 1901—2010). The downscaling was performed over Europe with a coupled regional atmosphere-ocean model (COSMO-CLM+NEMO) to represent the water cycle more realistic. These high resolution atmospheric data allowed us to study the four-dimensional atmospheric state during selected floods during the early decades of the 20th century for the first time with such a high temporal and spatial resolution.
During the winter half-year, the observed floods were particularly widespread. High peak discharges were recorded simultaneously in the Rhine, Elbe, and Danube catchments. Most of these trans-basin floods were compound events caused by rainfall during extensive snowmelt (i.e., rain-on-snow events). Interestingly, the winter flood time series exhibited a remarkable high flood frequency during the 1940s and 1980s, while other decades were flood-poor. We detected a synchronization of the inter-annual flood frequency with the superposition of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian pattern (SCA). The negative NAO phase is often associated with large snowfall and cyclone tracks over southern Europe, while the negative SCA pattern correlates with total precipitation in the affected river catchments.
During the summer half-year, most extreme floods in Central Europe were caused by so-called Vb-cyclones propagating from the Mediterranean Sea north-eastward to Central Europe. So far in the literature, only a few Vb-events, which occurred during the past two decades, have been analysed. We extended the previous case studies by several past Vb-cyclone floods since 1900. We investigated the processes that intensify Vb-cyclone precipitation with Lagrangian moisture-source diagnostics and the parametric transfer entropy measure TE-linear. Overall, an enhanced and dynamically driven moisture uptake over the Mediterranean Sea was found to be characteristic for Vb-events with heavy precipitation. This is supported by high information exchange from evaporation over the western basin of the Mediterranean Sea towards heavy precipitation in the Odra catchment. The dominating moisture uptake regions during the investigated events were, however, the European continent and the North Sea. A possible cause could be the pre-moistening of non-saturated continental moisture sources upstream of the affected river catchments as indicated by significant information exchange from land surface evaporation and soil moisture content along the Vb-cyclone pathway. Besides, evaporation over the Mediterranean Sea might contribute to Vb-cyclone intensification in the early stages of their development through latent heat release. On the catchment scale, orographic rainfall and convective precipitation further enhance the flood triggering rainfall. As expected, the Vb-cyclones mainly trigger precipitation along west-east orientated mountain ranges such as the Alps or Ore mountains due to their meridional pathway. Remarkably, during summer, we detected a convective fraction of up to 90% during the afternoons of individual days and up to 23% on average (based on convective cell tracking and convection-permitting simulations of selected flood events since 1900).
The presented analyses deepened the knowledge on atmospheric and hydroclimatic drivers of widespread floods in Central Europe. This will serve as a basis for future studies on the predictability of floods induced by rain-on-snow and Vb-cyclone precipitation events in the context of a changing climate.
Several past summer floods in Central Europe were associated with so-called Vb‑cyclones propagating from the Mediterranean Sea north-eastward to Central Europe. This study illustrates the usefulness of the parametric transfer entropy measure TE‑linear in investigating heavy Vb‑cyclone precipitation events in the Odra catchment (Poland). With the application of the TE‑linear approach, we confirm the impact of the Mediterranean Sea on precipitation intensification. Moreover, we also detect significant information exchange to Vb‑cyclone precipitation from evaporation over the European continent along the typical Vb‑cyclone pathway. Thus, the Mediterranean Sea could enhance the Vb‑cyclone precipitation by pre-moistening continental moisture source regions that contribute to precipitation downstream in the investigated catchments. Overall, the transfer entropy approach with the measure TE‑linear proved to be computationally effective and complementary to traditional methods such as Lagrangian and Eulerian diagnostics.