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Background: Aedes albopictus and Ae. japonicus are two of the most widespread invasive mosquito species that have recently become established in western Europe. Both species are associated with the transmission of a number of serious diseases and are projected to continue their spread in Europe.
Methods: In the present study, we modelled the habitat suitability for both species under current and future climatic conditions by means of an Ensemble forecasting approach. We additionally compared the modelled MAXENT niches of Ae. albopictus and Ae. japonicus regarding temperature and precipitation requirements.
Results: Both species were modelled to find suitable habitat conditions in distinct areas within Europe: Ae. albopictus within the Mediterranean regions in southern Europe, Ae. japonicus within the more temperate regions of central Europe. Only in few regions, suitable habitat conditions were projected to overlap for both species. Whereas Ae. albopictus is projected to be generally promoted by climate change in Europe, the area modelled to be climatically suitable for Ae. japonicus is projected to decrease under climate change. This projection of range reduction under climate change relies on the assumption that Ae. japonicus is not able to adapt to warmer climatic conditions. The modelled MAXENT temperature niches of Ae. japonicus were found to be narrower with an optimum at lower temperatures compared to the niches of Ae. albopictus.
Conclusions: Species distribution models identifying areas with high habitat suitability can help improving monitoring programmes for invasive species currently in place. However, as mosquito species are known to be able to adapt to new environmental conditions within the invasion range quickly, niche evolution of invasive mosquito species should be closely followed upon in future studies.
The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus, native to South East Asia, is listed as one of the worst invasive vector species worldwide. In Europe the species is currently restricted to Southern Europe, but due to the ongoing climate change, Ae. albopictus is expected to expand its potential range further northwards. In addition to modelling the habitat suitability for Ae. albopictus under current and future climatic conditions in Europe by means of the maximum entropy approach, we here focused on the drivers of the habitat suitability prediction. We explored the most limiting factors for Aedes albopictus in Europe under current and future climatic conditions, a method which has been neglected in species distribution modelling so far. Ae. albopictus is one of the best-studied mosquito species, which allowed us to evaluate the applied Maxent approach for most limiting factor mapping. We identified three key limiting factors for Ae. albopictus in Europe under current climatic conditions: winter temperature in Eastern Europe, summer temperature in Southern Europe. Model findings were in good accordance with commonly known establishment thresholds in Europe based on climate chamber experiments and derived from the geographical distribution of the species. Under future climatic conditions low winter temperature were modelled to remain the most limiting factor in Eastern Europe, whereas in Central Europe annual mean temperature and summer temperatures were modelled to be replaced by summer precipitation, respectively, as most limiting factors. Changes in the climatic conditions in terms of the identified key limiting factors will be of great relevance regarding the invasive potential of the Ae. albopictus. Thus, our results may help to understand the key drivers of the suggested range expansion under climate change and may help to improve monitoring programmes. The applied approach of investigating limiting factors has proven to yield valuable results and may also provide valuable insights into the drivers of the prediction of current and future distribution of other species. This might be particularly interesting for other vector species that are of increasing public health concerns.
Erratum to doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1853-2
Biological invasions have been associated with niche changes; however, their occurrence is still debated. We assess whether climatic niches between native and non-native ranges have changed during the invasion process using two globally spread mosquitoes as model species, Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti. Considering the different time spans since their invasions (>300 vs. 30–40 years), niche changes were expected to be more likely for Ae. aegypti than for Ae. albopictus. We used temperature and precipitation variables as descriptors for the realized climatic niches and different niche metrics to detect niche dynamics in the native and non-native ranges. High niche stability, therefore, no niche expansion but niche conservatism was revealed for both species. High niche unfilling for Ae. albopictus indicates a great potential for further expansion. Highest niche occupancies in non-native ranges occurred either under more temperate (North America, Europe) or tropical conditions (South America, Africa). Aedes aegypti has been able to fill its native climatic niche in the non-native ranges, with very low unfilling. Our results challenge the assumption of rapid evolutionary change of climatic niches as a requirement for global invasions but support the use of native range-based niche models to project future invasion risk on a large scale.
Background: Zika is of great medical relevance due to its rapid geographical spread in 2015 and 2016 in South America and its serious implications, for example, certain birth defects. Recent epidemics urgently require a better understanding of geographic patterns of the Zika virus transmission risk. This study aims to map the Zika virus transmission risk in South and Central America. We applied the maximum entropy approach, which is common for species distribution modelling, but is now also widely in use for estimating the geographical distribution of infectious diseases.
Methods: As predictor variables we used a set of variables considered to be potential drivers of both direct and indirect effects on the emergence of Zika. Specifically, we considered (a) the modelled habitat suitability for the two main vector species Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus as a proxy of vector species distributions; (b) temperature, as it has a great influence on virus transmission; (c) commonly called evidence consensus maps (ECM) of human Zika virus infections on a regional scale as a proxy for virus distribution; (d) ECM of human dengue virus infections and, (e) as possibly relevant socio-economic factors, population density and the gross domestic product.
Results: The highest values for the Zika transmission risk were modelled for the eastern coast of Brazil as well as in Central America, moderate values for the Amazon basin and low values for southern parts of South America. The following countries were modelled to be particularly affected: Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Puerto Rico and Venezuela. While modelled vector habitat suitability as predictor variable showed the highest contribution to the transmission risk model, temperature of the warmest quarter contributed only comparatively little. Areas with optimal temperature conditions for virus transmission overlapped only little with areas of suitable habitat conditions for the two main vector species. Instead, areas with the highest transmission risk were characterised as areas with temperatures below the optimum of the virus, but high habitat suitability modelled for the two main vector species.
Conclusion: Modelling approaches can help estimating the spatial and temporal dynamics of a disease. We focused on the key drivers relevant in the Zika transmission cycle (vector, pathogen, and hosts) and integrated each single component into the model. Despite the uncertainties generally associated with modelling, the approach applied in this study can be used as a tool and assist decision making and managing the spread of Zika.
The genus Ebolavirus comprises some of the deadliest viruses for primates and humans and associated disease outbreaks are increasing in Africa. Different evidence suggests that bats are putative reservoir hosts and play a major role in the transmission cycle of these filoviruses. Thus, detailed knowledge about their distribution might improve risk estimations of where future disease outbreaks might occur. A MaxEnt niche modelling approach based on climatic variables and land cover was used to investigate the potential distribution of 9 bat species associated to the Zaire ebolavirus. This viral species has led to major Ebola outbreaks in Africa and is known for causing high mortalities. Modelling results suggest suitable areas mainly in the areas near the coasts of West Africa with extensions into Central Africa, where almost all of the 9 species studied find suitable habitat conditions. Previous spillover events and outbreak sites of the virus are covered by the modelled distribution of 3 bat species that have been tested positive for the virus not only using serology tests but also PCR methods. Modelling the habitat suitability of the bats is an important step that can benefit public information campaigns and may ultimately help control future outbreaks of the disease.
The use of parasites as biological tags for discrimination of fish stocks has become a commonly used approach in fisheries management. Metazoan parasite community analysis and anisakid nematode population genetics based on a mitochondrial cytochrome marker were applied in order to assess the usefulness of the two parasitological methods for stock discrimination of beaked redfish Sebastes mentella of three fishing grounds in the North East Atlantic. Multivariate, model-based approaches demonstrated that the metazoan parasite fauna of beaked redfish from East Greenland differed from Tampen, northern North Sea, and Bear Island, Barents Sea. A joint model (latent variable model) was used to estimate the effects of covariates on parasite species and identified four parasite species as main source of differences among fishing grounds; namely Chondracanthus nodosus, Anisakis simplex s.s., Hysterothylacium aduncum, and Bothriocephalus scorpii. Due to its high abundance and differences between fishing grounds, Anisakis simplex s.s. was considered as a major biological tag for host stock differentiation. Whilst the sole examination of Anisakis simplex s.s. on a population genetic level is only of limited use, anisakid nematodes (in particular, A. simplex s.s.) can serve as biological tags on a parasite community level. This study confirmed the use of multivariate analyses as a tool to evaluate parasite infra-communities and to identify parasite species that might serve as biological tags. The present study suggests that S. mentella in the northern North Sea and Barents Sea is not sub-structured.
The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus is currently spreading across Europe, facilitated by climate change and global transportation. It is a vector of arboviruses causing human diseases such as chikungunya, dengue hemorrhagic fever and Zika fever. For the majority of these diseases, no vaccines or therapeutics are available. Options for the control of Ae. albopictus are limited by European regulations introduced to protect biodiversity by restricting or phasing out the use of pesticides, genetically modified organisms (GMOs) or products of genome editing. Alternative solutions are thus urgently needed to avoid a future scenario in which Europe faces a choice between prioritizing human health or biodiversity when it comes to Aedes-vectored pathogens. To ensure regulatory compliance and public acceptance, these solutions should preferably not be based on chemicals or GMOs and must be cost-efficient and specific. The present review aims to synthesize available evidence on RNAi-based mosquito vector control and its potential for application in the European Union. The recent literature has identified some potential target sites in Ae. albopictus and formulations for delivery. However, we found little information concerning non-target effects on the environment or human health, on social aspects, regulatory frameworks, or on management perspectives. We propose optimal designs for RNAi-based vector control tools against Ae. albopictus (target product profiles), discuss their efficacy and reflect on potential risks to environmental health and the importance of societal aspects. The roadmap from design to application will provide readers with a comprehensive perspective on the application of emerging RNAi-based vector control tools for the suppression of Ae. albopictus populations with special focus on Europe.
Background: Worldwide, the number of recorded human hantavirus infections as well as the number of affected countries is on the rise. In Europe, most human hantavirus infections are caused by the Puumala virus (PUUV), with bank voles (Myodes glareolus) as reservoir hosts. Generally, infection outbreaks have been related to environmental conditions, particularly climatic conditions, food supply for the reservoir species and land use. However, although attempts have been made, the insufficient availability of environmental data is often hampering accurate temporal and spatially explicit models of human hantavirus infections.
Methods: In the present study, dynamics of human PUUV infections between 2001 and 2015 were explored using ArcGIS in order to identify spatio-temporal patterns.
Results: Percentage cover of forest area was identified as an important factor for the spatial pattern, whereas beech mast was found explaining temporal patterns of human PUUV infections in Germany. High numbers of infections were recorded in 2007, 2010 and 2012 and areas with highest records were located in Baden-Wuerttemberg (southwest Germany) and North Rhine-Westphalia (western Germany).
Conclusion: More reliable data on reservoir host distribution, pathogen verification as well as an increased awareness of physicians are some of the factors that should improve future human infection risk assessments in Germany.
Due to its remote and isolated location, Antarctica is home to a unique diversity of species. The harsh conditions have shaped a primarily highly adapted endemic fauna. This includes the notothenioid family Channichthyidae. Their exceptional physiological adaptations have made this family of icefish the focus of many studies. However, studies on their ecology, especially on their parasite fauna, are comparatively rare. Parasites, directly linked to the food chain, can function as biological indicators and provide valuable information on host ecology (e.g., trophic interactions) even in remote habitats with limited accessibility, such as the Southern Ocean. In the present study, channichthyid fish (Champsocephalus gunnari: n = 25, Chaenodraco wilsoni: n = 33, Neopagetopsis ionah: n = 3, Pagetopsis macropterus: n = 4, Pseudochaenichthys georgianus: n = 15) were collected off South Shetland Island, Elephant Island, and the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (CCAML statistical subarea 48.1). The parasite fauna consisted of 14 genera and 15 species, belonging to the six taxonomic groups including Digenea (four species), Nematoda (four), Cestoda (two), Acanthocephala (one), Hirudinea (three), and Copepoda (one). The stomach contents were less diverse with only Crustacea (Euphausiacea, Amphipoda) recovered from all examined fishes. Overall, 15 new parasite-host records could be established, and possibly a undescribed genotype or even species might exist among the nematodes.