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Institute
Freeze-out radii extracted from three-pion cumulants in pp, p–Pb and Pb–Pb collisions at the LHC
(2014)
In high-energy collisions, the spatio-temporal size of the particle production region can be measured using the Bose–Einstein correlations of identical bosons at low relative momentum. The source radii are typically extracted using two-pion correlations, and characterize the system at the last stage of interaction, called kinetic freeze-out. In low-multiplicity collisions, unlike in high-multiplicity collisions, two-pion correlations are substantially altered by background correlations, e.g. mini-jets. Such correlations can be suppressed using three-pion cumulant correlations. We present the first measurements of the size of the system at freeze-out extracted from three-pion cumulant correlations in pp, p–Pb and Pb–Pb collisions at the LHC with ALICE. At similar multiplicity, the invariant radii extracted in p–Pb collisions are found to be 5–15% larger than those in pp, while those in Pb–Pb are 35–55% larger than those in p–Pb. Our measurements disfavor models which incorporate substantially stronger collective expansion in p–Pb as compared to pp collisions at similar multiplicity.
We report on the measurement of the inclusive Υ (1S) production in Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN = 2.76 TeV carried out at forward rapidity (2.5 < y < 4) and down to zero transverse momentum using its μ+μ−decay channel with the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. A strong suppression of the inclusive Υ (1S) yield is observed with respect to pp collisions scaled by the number of independent nucleon–nucleon collisions. The nuclear modification factor, for events in the 0–90% centrality range, amounts to 0.30 ± 0.05(stat) ± 0.04(syst). The observed Υ (1S) suppression tends to increase with the centrality of the collision and seems more pronounced than in corresponding mid-rapidity measurements. Our results are compared with model calculations, which are found to underestimate the measured suppression and fail to reproduce its rapidity dependence.
We report on the production of inclusive Υ (1S) and Υ (2S) in p–Pb collisions at √sNN = 5.02 TeV at the LHC. The measurement is performed with the ALICE detector at backward (−4.46 < ycms < −2.96) and forward (2.03 .< ycms < 3.53) rapidity down to zero transverse momentum. The production cross sections of the Υ (1S) and Υ (2S) are presented, as well as the nuclear modification factor and the ratio of the forward to backward yields of Υ (1S). A suppression of the inclusive Υ (1S) yield in p–Pb collisions with respect to the yield from pp collisions scaled by the number of binary nucleon–nucleon collisions is observed at forward rapidity but not at backward rapidity. The results are compared to theoretical model calculations including nuclear shadowing or partonic energy loss effect.
The popular Nelson-Siegel (1987) yield curve is routinely fit to cross sections of intra-country bond yields, and Diebold and Li (2006) have recently proposed a dynamized version. In this paper we extend Diebold-Li to a global context, modeling a potentially large set of country yield curves in a framework that allows for both global and country-specific factors. In an empirical analysis of term structures of government bond yields for the Germany, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S., we find that global yield factors do indeed exist and are economically important, generally explaining significant fractions of country yield curve dynamics, with interesting differences across countries.
Despite powerful advances in yield curve modeling in the last twenty years, comparatively little attention has been paid to the key practical problem of forecasting the yield curve. In this paper we do so. We use neither the no-arbitrage approach, which focuses on accurately fitting the cross section of interest rates at any given time but neglects time-series dynamics, nor the equilibrium approach, which focuses on time-series dynamics (primarily those of the instantaneous rate) but pays comparatively little attention to fitting the entire cross section at any given time and has been shown to forecast poorly. Instead, we use variations on the Nelson-Siegel exponential components framework to model the entire yield curve, period-by-period, as a three-dimensional parameter evolving dynamically. We show that the three time-varying parameters may be interpreted as factors corresponding to level, slope and curvature, and that they may be estimated with high efficiency. We propose and estimate autoregressive models for the factors, and we show that our models are consistent with a variety of stylized facts regarding the yield curve. We use our models to produce term-structure forecasts at both short and long horizons, with encouraging results. In particular, our forecasts appear much more accurate at long horizons than various standard benchmark forecasts. JEL Code: G1, E4, C5
Children often perform worse than adults on tasks that require focused attention. While this is commonly regarded as a sign of incomplete cognitive development, a broader attentional focus could also endow children with the ability to find novel solutions to a given task. To test this idea, we investigated children’s ability to discover and use novel aspects of the environment that allowed them to improve their decision-making strategy. Participants were given a simple choice task in which the possibility of strategy improvement was neither mentioned by instructions nor encouraged by explicit error feedback. Among 47 children (8—10 years of age) who were instructed to perform the choice task across two experiments, 27.5% showed a full strategy change. This closely matched the proportion of adults who had the same insight (28.2% of n = 39). The amount of erroneous choices, working memory capacity and inhibitory control, in contrast, indicated substantial disadvantages of children in task execution and cognitive control. A task difficulty manipulation did not affect the results. The stark contrast between age-differences in different aspects of cognitive performance might offer a unique opportunity for educators in fostering learning in children.