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Anthropogenic climate change is expected to impact ecosystem structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa profoundly. We used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), which was originally developed and tested for Africa, to quantify sources of uncertainties in simulated African potential natural vegetation towards the end of the 21st century. We forced the aDGVM with regionally downscaled high‐resolution climate scenarios based on an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our study assessed the direct effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on vegetation change and its plant‐physiological drivers. Total increase in carbon in aboveground biomass in Africa until the end of the century was between 18% to 43% (RCP4.5) and 37% to 61% (RCP8.5) and was associated with woody encroachment into grasslands and increased woody cover in savannas. When direct effects of CO2 on plants were omitted, woody encroachment was muted and carbon in aboveground vegetation changed between –8 to 11% (RCP 4.5) and –22 to –6% (RCP8.5). Simulated biome changes lacked consistent large‐scale geographical patterns of change across scenarios. In Ethiopia and the Sahara/Sahel transition zone, the biome changes forecast by the aDGVM were consistent across GCMs and RCPs. Direct effects from elevated CO2 were associated with substantial increases in water use efficiency, primarily driven by photosynthesis enhancement, which may relieve soil moisture limitations to plant productivity. At the ecosystem level, interactions between fire and woody plant demography further promoted woody encroachment. We conclude that substantial future biome changes due to climate and CO2 changes are likely across Africa. Because of the large uncertainties in future projections, adaptation strategies must be highly flexible. Focused research on CO2 effects, and improved model representations of these effects will be necessary to reduce these uncertainties.
Africa's protected areas (PAs) are the last stronghold of the continent's unique biodiversity, but they appear increasingly threatened by climate change, substantial human population growth, and land-use change. Conservation planning is challenged by uncertainty about how strongly and where these drivers will interact over the next few decades. We investigated the combined future impacts of climate-driven vegetation changes inside African PAs and human population densities and land use in their surroundings for 2 scenarios until the end of the 21st century. We used the following 2 combinations of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs): the “middle-of-the-road” scenario SSP2–RCP4.5 and the resource-intensive “fossil-fueled development” scenario SSP5–RCP8.5. Climate change impacts on tree cover and biome type (i.e., desert, grassland, savanna, and forest) were simulated with the adaptive dynamic global vegetation model (aDGVM). Under both scenarios, most PAs were adversely affected by at least 1 of the drivers, but the co-occurrence of drivers was largely region and scenario specific. The aDGVM projections suggest considerable climate-driven tree cover increases in PAs in today's grasslands and savannas. For PAs in West Africa, the analyses revealed climate-driven vegetation changes combined with hotspots of high future population and land-use pressure. Except for many PAs in North Africa, future decreases in population and land-use pressures were rare. At the continental scale, SSP5–RCP8.5 led to higher climate-driven changes in tree cover and higher land-use pressure, whereas SSP2–RCP4.5 was characterized by higher future population pressure. Both SSP–RCP scenarios implied increasing challenges for conserving Africa's biodiversity in PAs. Our findings underline the importance of developing and implementing region-specific conservation responses. Strong mitigation of future climate change and equitable development scenarios would reduce ecosystem impacts and sustain the effectiveness of conservation in Africa.
Semi-arid African ecosystems influence trends and variability in global terrestrial carbon dynamics. However, there are uncertainties in potential effects of future climates for semi-arid ecosystems, especially for niche ecosystems. At the same time, African ecosystems provide the livelihoods and ecosystem services for around 1.4 billion people. Future population growth and associated changes in land use pose a challenge for the protection of African biodiversity. Therefore, this work focussed on future impacts of climate change on African ecosystems and carbon dynamics and also for African protected areas (PAs), where they may cooccur with other global change factors. Another focus was on uncertainties associated with future projections and with modelling the Nama Karoo, as an example of a semi-arid niche ecosystem. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) were the main research tool.
In Chapter 2, we analysed climate change impacts on African ecosystems and carbon pools until the end of the 21st century and associated uncertainties based on an ensemble of vegetation simulations with the DVM adaptive dynamic vegetation model (aDGVM). We investigated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and two climate change scenarios (medium (RCP4.5) and high emissions (RCP8.5); RCP - representative concentration pathway) on vegetation changes. Differences in the simulated vegetation were primarily driven by assumptions about the influence of CO2 on plants. Elevated CO2 concentrations led to increased total aboveground vegetation biomass and shrub encroachment into grasslands and savannas for both climate scenarios. In simulations without the direct influence of CO2 on plants, there was hardly any shrub encroachment and vegetation biomass decreased or varied between a slight decrease in some cases and a slight increase in others. Based on these results, biome changes due to climate change are likely in Africa in the future. Due to the large uncertainties in future projections, strategies to adapt to climate change must be flexible.
The simulated vegetation in Chapter 2 represented potential, natural vegetation and is particularly suitable to investigate PAs. However, PAs do not exist isolated from their environment and social developments. In Chapter 3, the vegetation projections with CO2 effect from Chapter 2 were combined with projections for population density and land use. Except for many PAs in North Africa, most PAs were adversely affected by at least one of the three drivers by the end of the 21st century in both investigated scenarios ("middle-of-the-road" and "fossil-fuelled development"). Cooccurrence of the drivers varied by region and scenario for PAs. Both scenarios implied increasing challenges for the conservation of African biodiversity in PAs. The impact of climate change on vegetation is likely to be exacerbated by socio-economic change for most African PAs. Strong mitigation of future climate change together with equitable societal development may facilitate successful ecosystem conservation.
The simulations in Chapters 2 and 3 showed large-scale patterns of vegetation change, but their low resolution makes them unsuitable for local analyses. In Chapter 4, the challenges of simulating smaller scale, semi-arid ecosystems and their carbon cycle were analysed for the Nama Karoo with the aDGVM2 and its shrub module. The aDGVM2 is based on the aDGVM, but represents plants more flexibly. In all tested aDGVM2 configurations, the carbon fluxes improved compared to initial simulations but still overestimated them. The measured morphology of the dwarf shrubs and soil water dynamics were not reproduced in aDGVM2. Semi-arid soil water dynamics and coping strategies of semi-arid dwarf shrubs under drought stress are not adequately implemented in the aDGVM2. Further field research on semi-arid water and carbon dynamics of vegetation is necessary to parameterise the aDGVM2 for dwarf shrubs. If these challenges are overcome, DVMs can be a powerful tool for much-needed research on the impacts of climate change on the Nama Karoo.
The analyses have shown that climate change under medium to high emission scenarios is likely to lead to large-scale changes in ecosystems and the carbon balance in Africa. Because lower emissions scenarios come with less uncertainty, climate change adaptation strategies likely need to be less complex or extensive if climate change is minimised. For African PAs, the challenges of climate change may be exacerbated by socio-economic factors to a regionally varying extent. This research suggests that successful ecosystem conservation depends on climate change mitigation measures and ensuring equitable, sustainable development. The shown uncertainties, e.g., in the implementation of the CO2 effect on plants or vegetation dynamics in more niche ecosystems, help to focus future research efforts and increase our understanding of the range of plausible futures we may need to adapt to.