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Observed weather and projected climate change suggest an increase in the transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. In this study, we systematically explore the literature for empiric associations between the climate variables and specific VBDs and their vectors in the HKH region. We conducted a systematic synthesis of the published literature on climate variables, VBDs and vectors in the HKH region until the 8th of December 2020. The majority of studies show significant positive associations of VBDs with climatic factors, such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, etc. This systematic review allowed us to identify the most significant variables to be considered for evidence-based trend estimates of the effects of climate change on VBDs and their vectors in the HKH region. This evidence-based trend was set into the context of climate change as well as the observed expansion of VBDs and disease vectors in the HKH region. The geographic range of VBDs expanded into previously considered non-endemic areas of highlands (mountains) in the HKH region. Based on scarce, but clear evidence of a positive relationship of most climate variables and VBDs and the observed climatic changes, we strongly recommend an expansion of vector control and surveillance programmes in areas of the HKH region that were previously considered to be non-endemic.
Background: The Global Burden of Diseases Study 2017 predicted that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the second leading cause of death, the fourth leading cause of premature death, and the third cause for DALYs lost in Nepal. However, data on the population-based prevalence of COPD in Nepal are very limited. This study aims to assess the prevalence of COPD and factors associated with the occurrence of COPD in Nepal.
Methods: From a nationally representative, population-based cross-sectional study on chronic non-communicable diseases, the prevalence of COPD and its associated factors was determined. Of 12,557 participants aged over 20 years, 8945 participants completed a questionnaire and spirometry. Eligible participants were also asked to answer a COPD diagnostic questionnaire for screening COPD cases, and if needed underwent pre-bronchodilator and post-bronchodilator spirometry. COPD was defined as a post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC (forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity) ratio of < 0.70. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with COPD. Sampling weights were used for all data analyses.
Results: The prevalence of COPD in Nepal was 11.7% (95% CI: 10.5% to 12.9 %), which increased with age, and higher in those with a low educational level, those who had smoked ≥ 50 pack-years, persons having a low body mass index (BMI), and residents of Karnali province. Multivariate analysis revealed that being aged 60 years and above, having a low BMI, low educational status, having smoked more than 50 pack-years, provincial distribution, and ethnicity were independent predictors of COPD.
Conclusion: COPD is a growing and serious public health issue in Nepal. Factor such as old age, cigarette smoking, low educational attainment, low BMI, ethnicity, and locality of residence (province-level variation) plays a vital role in the occurrence of COPD. Strategies aimed at targeting these risk factors through health promotion and education interventions are needed to decrease the burden of COPD.
Background:Aedes aegypti is a potential vector for several arboviruses including dengue and Zika viruses. The species seems to be restricted to subtropical/tropical habitats and has difficulties in establishing permanent populations in southern Europe, probably due to constraints during the winter season. The aim of this study was to systematically analyze the cold tolerance (CT) of Ae. aegypti in its most cold-resistant life stage, the eggs.
Methods: The CT of Ae. aegypti eggs was compared with that of Ae. albopictus which is well established in large parts of Europe. By systematically studying the literature (meta-analysis), we recognized that CT has been rarely tested in Ae. aegypti eggs, but eggs can survive at zero and sub-zero temperatures for certain exposure periods. To overcome potential bias from experimental differences between studies, we then conducted species comparisons using a harmonized high-resolution CT measuring method. From subtropical populations of the same origin, the survival (hatching in %) and emergence of adults of both species were measured after zero and sub-zero temperature exposures for up to 9 days (3 °C, 0 °C and − 2 °C: ≤ 9 days; − 6 °C: ≤ 2 days).
Results: Our data show that Ae. aegypti eggs can survive low and sub-zero temperatures for a short time period similar to or even better than those of Ae. albopictus. Moreover, after short sub-zero exposures of eggs of both species, individuals still developed into viable adults (Ae. aegypti: 3 adults emerged after 6 days at − 2 °C, Ae. albopictus: 1 adult emerged after 1 day at − 6 °C).
Conclusions: Thus, both the literature and the present experimental data indicate that a cold winter may not be the preventing factor for the re-establishment of the dengue vector Ae. aegypti in southern Europe.
The risk of increasing dengue (DEN) and chikungunya (CHIK) epidemics impacts 240 million people, health systems, and the economy in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. The aim of this systematic review is to monitor trends in the distribution and spread of DEN/CHIK over time and geographically for future reliable vector and disease control in the HKH region. We conducted a systematic review of the literature on the spatiotemporal distribution of DEN/CHIK in HKH published up to 23 January 2020, following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. In total, we found 61 articles that focused on the spatial and temporal distribution of 72,715 DEN and 2334 CHIK cases in the HKH region from 1951 to 2020. DEN incidence occurs in seven HKH countries, i.e., India, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Myanmar, and CHIK occurs in four HKH countries, i.e., India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar, out of eight HKH countries. DEN is highly seasonal and starts with the onset of the monsoon (July in India and June in Nepal) and with the onset of spring (May in Bhutan) and peaks in the postmonsoon season (September to November). This current trend of increasing numbers of both diseases in many countries of the HKH region requires coordination of response efforts to prevent and control the future expansion of those vector-borne diseases to nonendemic areas, across national borders.
Background: Ever since it was discovered that zoophilic vectors can transmit malaria, zooprophylaxis has been used to prevent the disease. However, zoopotentiation has also been observed. Thus, the presence of livestock has been widely accepted as an important variable for the prevalence and risk of malaria, but the effectiveness of zooprophylaxis remained subject to debate. This study aims to critically analyse the effects of the presence of livestock on malaria prevalence using a large dataset from Indonesia.
Methods: This study is based on data from the Indonesia Basic Health Research ("Riskesdas") cross-sectional survey of 2007 organized by the National Institute of Health Research and Development of Indonesia’s Ministry of Health. The subset of data used in the present study included 259,885 research participants who reside in the rural areas of 176 regencies throughout the 15 provinces of Indonesia where the prevalence of malaria is higher than the national average. The variable "existence of livestock" and other independent demographic, social and behavioural variables were tested as potential determinants for malaria prevalence by multivariate logistic regressions.
Results: Raising medium-sized animals in the house was a significant predictor of malaria prevalence (OR = 2.980; 95% CI 2.348–3.782, P < 0.001) when compared to keeping such animals outside of the house (OR = 1.713; 95% CI 1.515–1.937, P < 0.001). After adjusting for gender, age, access to community health facility, sewage canal condition, use of mosquito nets and insecticide-treated bed nets, the participants who raised medium-sized animals inside their homes were 2.8 times more likely to contract malaria than respondents who did not (adjusted odds ratio = 2.809; 95% CI 2.207–3.575; P < 0.001).
Conclusions: The results of this study highlight the importance of livestock for malaria transmission, suggesting that keeping livestock in the house contributes to malaria risk rather than prophylaxis in Indonesia. Livestock-based interventions should therefore play a significant role in the implementation of malaria control programmes, and focus on households with a high proportion of medium-sized animals in rural areas. The implementation of a "One Health" strategy to eliminate malaria in Indonesia by 2030 is strongly recommended.
Spatial modelling of malaria cases associated with environmental factors in South Sumatra, Indonesia
(2018)
Background: Malaria, a parasitic infection, is a life-threatening disease in South Sumatra Province, Indonesia. This study aimed to investigate the spatial association between malaria occurrence and environmental risk factors.
Methods: The number of confirmed malaria cases was analysed for the year 2013 from the routine reporting of the Provincial Health Office of South Sumatra. The cases were spread over 436 out of 1613 villages. Six potential ecological predictors of malaria cases were analysed in the different regions using ordinary least square (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR). The global pattern and spatial variability of associations between malaria cases and the selected potential ecological predictors was explored.
Results: The importance of different environmental and geographic parameters for malaria was shown at global and village-level in South Sumatra, Indonesia. The independent variables altitude, distance from forest, and rainfall in global OLS were significantly associated with malaria cases. However, as shown by GWR model and in line with recent reviews, the relationship between malaria and environmental factors in South Sumatra strongly varied spatially in different regions.
Conclusions: A more in-depth understanding of local ecological factors influencing malaria disease as shown in present study may not only be useful for developing sustainable regional malaria control programmes, but can also benefit malaria elimination efforts at village level.
Asia and its Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is particularly vulnerable to environmental change, especially climate and land use changes further influenced by rapid population growth, high level of poverty and unsustainable development. Asia has been a hotspot of dengue fever and chikungunya mainly due to its dense human population, unplanned urbanization and poverty. In an urban cycle, dengue virus (DENV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) are transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes which are also competent vectors of Zika virus (ZIKV). Over the last decade, DENV and CHIKV transmissions by Ae. aegypti have extended to the Himalayan countries of Bhutan and Nepal and ZIKV could follow in the footsteps of these viruses in the HKH region. The already established distribution of human-biting Aedes mosquito vectors and a naïve population with lack of immunity against ZIKV places the HKH region at a higher risk of ZIKV. Some of the countries in the HKH region have already reported ZIKV cases. We have documented an increasing threat of ZIKV in Asia and its HKH region because of the high abundance and wide distribution of human-biting mosquito vectors, climate change, poverty, report of indigenous cases in the region, increasing numbers of imported cases and a naïve population with lack of immunity against ZIKV. An outbreak anywhere is potentially a threat everywhere. Therefore, in order to ensure international health security, all efforts to prevent, detect, and respond to ZIKV ought to be intensified now in Asia and its HKH region. To prepare for possible ZIKV outbreaks, Asia and the HKH region can also learn from the success stories and strategies adopted by other regions and countries in preventing ZIKV and associated complications. The future control strategies for DENV, CHIKV and ZIKV should be considered in tandem with the threat to human well-being that is posed by other emerging and re-emerging vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, and by the continuing urgent need to strengthen public primary healthcare systems in the region.
Background: The Indonesian region of Aceh was the area most severely affected by the earthquake and tsunami of 26 December 2004. Department of Health data reveal an upward trend of dengue cases in Aceh since the events of the tsunami. Despite the increasing incidence of dengue in the region, there is limited understanding of dengue among the general population of Aceh. The aim of this study was to assess the knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) regarding dengue among the people of Aceh, Indonesia in order to design intervention strategies for an effective dengue prevention program.
Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Aceh between November 2014 and March 2015 with a total of 609 participants living in seven regencies and two municipalities. Information on the socio-demographic characteristics of participants and their KAP regarding dengue was collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire. The KAP status (good vs. poor) of participants with different socio-demographic characteristics was compared using Chi Square-test, ANOVA or Fisher’s exact test as appropriate. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of each KAP domain.
Results: We found that 45% of participants had good knowledge regarding dengue and only 32% had good attitudes and good dengue preventive practices. There was a significant positive correlation between knowledge and attitudes, knowledge and practice, and attitudes and practice. In addition, people who had good knowledge were 2.7 times more likely to have good attitudes, and people who had good attitudes were 2.2 times more likely to have good practices regarding dengue. The level of education, occupation, marital status, monthly income, socioeconomic status (SES) and living in the city were associated with the knowledge level. Occupation, SES, and having experienced dengue fever were associated with attitudes. Education, occupation, SES and type of residence were associated with preventive practices.
Conclusion: Our study suggests that dengue prevention programs are required to increase KAP levels regarding dengue in the communities of Aceh.
Nepal is highly vulnerable to global climate change, despite its negligible emission of global greenhouse gases. The vulnerable climate-sensitive sectors identified in Nepal's National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to Climate Change 2010 include agriculture, forestry, water, energy, public health, urbanization and infrastructure, and climate-induced disasters. In addition, analyses carried out as part of the NAPA process have indicated that the impacts of climate change in Nepal are not gender neutral. Vector-borne diseases, diarrhoeal diseases including cholera, malnutrition, cardiorespiratory diseases, psychological stress, and health effects and injuries related to extreme weather are major climate-sensitive health risks in the country. In recent years, research has been done in Nepal in order to understand the changing epidemiology of diseases and generate evidence for decision-making. Based on this evidence, the experience of programme managers, and regular surveillance data, the Government of Nepal has mainstreamed issues related to climate change in development plans, policies and programmes. In particular, the Government of Nepal has addressed climate-sensitive health risks. In addition to the NAPA report, several policy documents have been launched, including the Climate Change Policy 2011; the Nepal Health Sector Programme – Implementation Plan II (NHSP-IP 2) 2010–2015; the National Health Policy 2014; the National Health Sector Strategy 2015–2020 and its implementation plan (2016–2021); and the Health National Adaptation Plan (H-NAP): climate change and health strategy and action plan (2016–2020). However, the translation of these policies and plans of action into tangible action on the ground is still in its infancy in Nepal. Despite this, the health sector's response to addressing the impact of climate change in Nepal may be taken as a good example for other low- and middle-income countries.
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) comprise of 17 goals and 169 targets. All SDGs are interlinked to produce synergetic eff ects and emphasize health in all policies. Among the 17 Goals, Goal 3 has a central focus on health, which is underpinned by 13 targets. Th e other 16 goals are also directly or indirectly related to health and will contribute to achieving the associated targets for Goal 3. Th e ambitious SDG agenda and their progress can be tracked by measuring numerous goals, targets, and indicators. The main objective of this paper is to provide an overview about how health- related SDGs and their targets and indicators are being tracked in the national context of Nepal. Adequate investment in research for knowledge generation, capacity building and innovation, and continous research communication among policy makers, researchers and external development partners will contribute to tracking the progress of SDGs in Nepal.