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The thermodynamics of QCD with sufficiently heavy dynamical quarks can be described by a three-dimensional Polyakov loop effective theory, obtained after a truncated character and hopping expansion. We investigate the resulting phase diagram for low temperatures by mean field methods. Taking into account chemical potentials for both baryon number and isospin, we obtain clear signals for a liquid-gas type transition to baryon matter at μI=0 and a Bose-Einstein condensation transition at μB=0, as well as for their connection when both chemical potentials are non-zero.
Effective three-dimensional Polyakov loop theories derived from QCD by strong coupling and hopping expansions are valid for heavy quarks and can also be applied to finite chemical potential μ, due to their considerably milder sign problem. We apply the Monte-Carlo method to the Nf=1,2 effective theories up to O(κ4) in the hopping parameter at μ=0 to determine the critical quark mass, at which the first-order deconfinement phase transition terminates. The critical end point obtained from the effective theory to order O(κ2) agrees well with 4-dimensional QCD simulations with a hopping expanded determinant by the WHOT-QCD collaboration. We also compare with full QCD simulations and thus obtain a measure for the validity of both the strong coupling and the hopping expansion in this regime.