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Purpose: While more advanced COVID-19 necessitates medical interventions and hospitalization, patients with mild COVID-19 do not require this. Identifying patients at risk of progressing to advanced COVID-19 might guide treatment decisions, particularly for better prioritizing patients in need for hospitalization.
Methods: We developed a machine learning-based predictor for deriving a clinical score identifying patients with asymptomatic/mild COVID-19 at risk of progressing to advanced COVID-19. Clinical data from SARS-CoV-2 positive patients from the multicenter Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 Infected Patients (LEOSS) were used for discovery (2020-03-16 to 2020-07-14) and validation (data from 2020-07-15 to 2021-02-16).
Results: The LEOSS dataset contains 473 baseline patient parameters measured at the first patient contact. After training the predictor model on a training dataset comprising 1233 patients, 20 of the 473 parameters were selected for the predictor model. From the predictor model, we delineated a composite predictive score (SACOV-19, Score for the prediction of an Advanced stage of COVID-19) with eleven variables. In the validation cohort (n = 2264 patients), we observed good prediction performance with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.73 ± 0.01. Besides temperature, age, body mass index and smoking habit, variables indicating pulmonary involvement (respiration rate, oxygen saturation, dyspnea), inflammation (CRP, LDH, lymphocyte counts), and acute kidney injury at diagnosis were identified. For better interpretability, the predictor was translated into a web interface.
Conclusion: We present a machine learning-based predictor model and a clinical score for identifying patients at risk of developing advanced COVID-19.
Recently, a 15-valent (PCV15) and a 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) have been licensed by the US Food and Drug Administration and are under evaluation by the European Medicines Agency. PCV15 contains all serotypes of the 13-valent conjugate vaccine (PCV13) plus serotype 22F and 33F and PCV20 includes PCV13 serotypes plus serotypes 8, 10A, 11A, 12F, 15B, 22F, 33F. We investigated pneumococcal serotype distribution, secular trends and proportion of pneumonia caused by serotypes included in PCV13, PCV15, PCV20, and the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) among adult patients with all-cause community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) between 2013 and 2019. We applied logistic mixed regression modelling to assess annual trends. Urine samples from adult patients with CAP treated in the community or hospital in Germany and included in the CAPNETZ study, a prospective multi-centre cohort study, were analysed by two serotype-specific multiplex urinary antigen detection assays (UAD1/UAD2) at Pfizer’s Vaccines Research and Development Laboratory. UAD1 detects serotypes in PCV13, UAD2 detects additional serotypes in PCV20 plus serotypes 2, 9N, 17F and 20. Out of 1,831 patients screened, urine samples with a valid UAD test result were available for 1,343 patients (73.3%). Among those patients, 829 patients (61.7%) were male, 792 patients (59.0%) were aged ≥60 years, 1038 patients (77.3%) had at least one comorbidity and 1,204 patients (89.7%) were treated in the hospital. The overall proportion of vaccine-type pneumonia among all-cause CAP for PCV13, PCV15, PCV20 and PPV23 was 7.7% (n=103), 9.1% (n=122), 12.3% (n=165) and 13.3% (n=178). Over the entire observation period, we did not observe evidence for significant annual trends in pneumococcal vaccine serotype coverage against pneumonia in adults (PCV13: OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.83-1.05; PCV15: OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.84-1.03; PCV20: OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.86-1.04; PPV23: OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.90-1.08). In conclusion, our data show that i) the infant vaccination program of PCV13, which started in Germany 2010 did not result in a relevant and sustained decrease of PCV13 serotypes in pneumonia in adults and ii) that the gap in the coverage between PCV20 and PPV23 was small and did not increase over the entire observation time.
Recently, a 15-valent (PCV15) and a 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) have been licensed by the US Food and Drug Administration and are under evaluation by the European Medicines Agency. PCV15 contains all serotypes of the 13-valent conjugate vaccine (PCV13) plus serotype 22F and 33F and PCV20 includes PCV13 serotypes plus serotypes 8, 10A, 11A, 12F, 15B, 22F, 33F. We investigated pneumococcal serotype distribution, secular trends and proportion of pneumonia caused by serotypes included in PCV13, PCV15, PCV20, and the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) among adult patients with all-cause community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) between 2013 and 2019. We applied logistic mixed regression modelling to assess annual trends. Urine samples from adult patients with CAP treated in the community or hospital in Germany and included in the CAPNETZ study, a prospective multi-centre cohort study, were analysed by two serotype-specific multiplex urinary antigen detection assays (UAD1/UAD2) at Pfizer’s Vaccines Research and Development Laboratory. UAD1 detects serotypes in PCV13, UAD2 detects additional serotypes in PCV20 plus serotypes 2, 9N, 17F and 20. Out of 1,831 patients screened, urine samples with a valid UAD test result were available for 1,343 patients (73.3%). Among those patients, 829 patients (61.7%) were male, 792 patients (59.0%) were aged ≥60 years, 1038 patients (77.3%) had at least one comorbidity and 1,204 patients (89.7%) were treated in the hospital. The overall proportion of vaccine-type pneumonia among all-cause CAP for PCV13, PCV15, PCV20 and PPV23 was 7.7% (n=103), 9.1% (n=122), 12.3% (n=165) and 13.3% (n=178). Over the entire observation period, we did not observe evidence for significant annual trends in pneumococcal vaccine serotype coverage against pneumonia in adults (PCV13: OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.83-1.05; PCV15: OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.84-1.03; PCV20: OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.86-1.04; PPV23: OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.90-1.08). In conclusion, our data show i) no decline of PCV13 serotypes in all-cause CAP between 2013-2019 mainly due to a persistently high proportion of serotype 3 suggesting no meaningful effect of childhood PCV13 vaccination on PCV13 coverage in pneumonia in adults during this time period and ii) that the gap in the coverage between PCV20 and PPV23 was small and did not increase over the entire observation time.