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Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., native to North America, is a problematic invasive species, because of its highly allergenic pollen. The species is expected to expand its range due to climate change. By means of ecological niche modelling (ENM), we predict habitat suitability for A. artemisiifolia in Europe under current and future climatic conditions. Overall, we compared the performance and results of 16 algorithms commonly applied in ENM. As occurrence records of invasive species may be dominated by sampling bias, we also used data from the native range. To assess the quality of the modelling approaches we assembled a new map of current occurrences of A. artemisiifolia in Europe. Our results show that ENM yields a good estimation of the potential range of A. artemisiifolia in Europe only when using the North American data. A strong sampling bias in the European Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) data for A. artemisiifolia causes unrealistic results. Using the North American data reflects the realized European distribution very well. All models predict an enlargement and a northwards shift of potential range in Central and Northern Europe during the next decades. Climate warming will lead to an increase and northwards shift of A. artemisiifolia in Europe.
The influence of dispersal limitation on species ranges remains controversial. Considering the dramatic impacts of the last glaciation in Europe, species might not have tracked climate changes through time and, as a consequence, their present-day ranges might be in disequilibrium with current climate. For 1016 European plant species, we assessed the relative importance of current climate and limited postglacial migration in determining species ranges using regression modelling and explanatory variables representing climate, and a novel species-specific hind-casting-based measure of accessibility to postglacial colonization. Climate was important for all species, while postglacial colonization also constrained the ranges of more than 50 per cent of the species. On average, climate explained five times more variation in species ranges than accessibility, but accessibility was the strongest determinant for one-sixth of the species. Accessibility was particularly important for species with limited long-distance dispersal ability, with southern glacial ranges, seed plants compared with ferns, and small-range species in southern Europe. In addition, accessibility explained one-third of the variation in species' disequilibrium with climate as measured by the realized/potential range size ratio computed with niche modelling. In conclusion, we show that although climate is the dominant broad-scale determinant of European plant species ranges, constrained dispersal plays an important supplementary role.
Ein milder Winter hat dazu geführt, dass recht früh Blütezeit und Pollenflug eingesetzt haben. Auch einige heimische Insekten haben sich stärker vermehrt. Doch wie sieht es aus mit neuen „Plagegeistern“ wie exotischen Stechmücken oder eingewanderten Pflanzen wie der Beifußambrosie? Welche Gefahren lauern, was kann man gegen ein weiteres Vordringen invasiver Arten tun? Die Experten vom LOEWE Biodiversität und Klima Forschungszentrum BiK-F, Prof. Sven Klimpel und Dr. Oliver Tackenberg, geben Auskunft.
Germination characteristics and frost tolerance of seedlings are crucial parameters for establishment and invasion success of plants. The characterization of differences between populations in native and invasive ranges may improve our understanding of range expansion and adaptation. Here, we investigated germination characteristics of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., a successful invader in Europe, under a temperature gradient between 5 and 25 °C. Besides rate and speed of germination we determined optimal, minimal and maximal temperature for germination of ten North American and 17 European populations that were sampled along major latitudinal and longitudinal gradients. We furthermore investigated the frost tolerance of seedlings. Germination rate was highest at 15 °C and germination speed was highest at 25 °C. Germination rate, germination speed, frost tolerance of seedlings, and the temperature niche width for germination were significantly higher and broader, respectively, for European populations. This was partly due to a higher seed mass of these populations. Germination traits lacked evidence for adaptation to climatic variables at the point of origin for both provenances. Instead, in the native range, seedling frost tolerance was positively correlated with the risk of frosts which supports the assumption of local adaptation. The increased frost tolerance of European populations may allow germination earlier in the year which may subsequently lead to higher biomass allocation—due to a longer growing period—and result in higher pollen and seed production. The increase in germination rates, germination speed and seedling frost tolerance might result in a higher fitness of the European populations which may facilitate further successful invasion and enhance the existing public health problems associated with this species.
Only a small proportion of introduced plant species become invasive and may eventually create ecological or economic problems. In many species it is still not clear which traits cause biological inva-sions. As a case study we focussed on the fast-spreading Epilobium brachycarpum in Central Europe to investigate the potential of this species to become a transformer or agricultural weed. We (1) documented the spread of the species in Central Europe, (2) modelled its range and (3) seed dispersal, (4) described its phytosociological alignment, (5) analysed the traits of invaded vegetation types, (6) described seed production, population densities and life cycle, (7) did competition and germination tests, and (8) drafted a risk assessment. Relevant traits and characteristics of E. brachycarpum are (i) formation of dense stands under ruderal conditions, (ii) high seed production, (iii) effective seed dispersal, (iv) high competitiveness on bare soils against other ruderal plants, and (v) ecological niche shift com-pared to its native range. We expect E. brachycarpum to settle in the Mediterranean, sub-Mediterranean and many parts of temperate Europe within the next decades in habitats strongly altered by human activities, especially open stands of the alliance Sisymbrion. We predict that E. brachycarpum will become a noxious weed in vineyards, and that it will also colonise vegetation of the alliances Bidention and Carici-Epilobion.
The knowledge of phenotypic variation in the European range of the highly allergenic Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. (common ragweed) is not entirely complete, even though it is an invasive species of utmost concern. We hypothesized the prevalence of phenotypic differentiations between common ragweed populations in the introduced range, and we assumed that those differentiations were related to environmental conditions at the points of origin. Using a common garden experiment, we investigated biomass allocation, growth rates, and flowering phenology of 38 European common ragweed populations originating from a major geographical gradient. We observed considerable phenotypic variation in growth parameters and flowering phenology, e.g. mean aboveground biomass varied from 23.3 to 47.3 g between the populations. We were able to relate most measured traits with environmental parameters prevailing at the points of origin. For example, early growth of ruderal populations was highly correlated with temperature and precipitation at the point of origin. Late growth and flowering phenology were highly correlated with latitude, i.e. individuals from northern populations grew smaller and flowered and dispersed their pollen and seeds up to 5 weeks earlier than individuals from southern populations. We also found a longitudinal gradient in flowering phenology which has not yet been described. The existence of such a high variability in the introduced range may facilitate further range expansion. We suggest that the correlation with environmental variables rests upon genetic variation possibly due to adaptations to the respective environment. To clarify if such adaptation results from multiple events of introduction or as evolutionary response after introduction, genetic investigations are needed.
Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM). With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory) for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat – epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion – endozoochory) considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species.
Highlights
• Floating ability facilitates water dispersal.
• Hydrochorous seed dispersal is more effective than wind dispersal.
• Storage in water induced germination rate.
Abstract
In many Central European countries Fraxinus pennsylvanica is an invasive species that spreads rapidly in floodplain forests. The aim of this study was to analyse anemochorous and hydrochorous dispersal distances and to compare the findings with dispersal data for the native Fraxinus excelsior. A simulation revealed that wind dispersal distances are similar for both species, reaching to 120–250 m. By contrast, the mean floating time (50% floating samaras) measured in an experiment was 2 days in the case of F. pennsylvanica and 0.5 days for F. excelsior. This high floating ability facilitates water dispersal over several kilometres in both species, but for the invasive species the modelled mean dispersal distance was 3.7 times higher. A germination test of F. pennsylvanica seeds revealed that the rate, onset and speed of germination increase with the duration of the inundation. After a maximum storage time in water of about 15 days the germination rate amounts to 78%, which was higher than the germination rate of seeds without storage in water (53%). We also found that regeneration was enhanced in flooded areas. Hydrochory, therefore, may be viewed as an important factor explaining the successful invasion of F. pennsylvanica in floodplain forests in Central Europe.
Seed dispersal is hard to measure, and there is still a lack of knowledge about dispersal-related traits of plant species. Therefore, we developed D3, the Dispersal and Diaspore Database (available at
www.seed-dispersal.info), which aims at simplifying ecological and evolutionary analyses by providing and integrating various items related to seed dispersal: empirical studies, functional traits, image analyses and ranking indices (quantifying the adaptation to dispersal modes).
Currently, the database includes data for more than 5000 taxa and 33 items as well as digital images of diaspores (i.e. the dispersal units), seeds, fruits and infructescences. The included items cover common traits like diaspore mass, size, shape, terminal velocity and seed number per diaspore. Furthermore, we present newly or further developed items like ecomorphological categorizations of the diaspore and fruit as well as information from literature on prevailing dispersal modes. Finally, we introduce several items which are not covered in other databases yet: surface structure and form of the diaspore, the exposure of the diaspores in the infructescence and dispersal rankings. Dispersal rankings allow estimations of how well certain species are adapted to a specific dispersal mode in comparison to a larger species set. They are calculated as the percentile rank of an indicator of species’ dispersal potential in relation to a larger species set.
Especially for the new and further developed items we outline the basic concepts in detail, describe the measurement and categorization methods and show how to interpret and integrate these data for single species as well as for larger species sets. Thereby, we calculate baseline statistics of seed dispersal of the Central European flora. We found that diaspores of 72% of the taxa show specializations related to long-distance dispersal, i.e. most often elongated appendages or nutrient-rich tissues. Diaspore masses, sizes and terminal velocities vary over several orders of magnitude and can be approximated by lognormal distributions.