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Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) based assessment of white matter fiber tract integrity can support the diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The use of DTI as a biomarker, however, depends on its applicability in a multicenter setting accounting for effects of different MRI scanners. We applied multivariate machine learning (ML) to a large multicenter sample from the recently created framework of the European DTI study on Dementia (EDSD). We hypothesized that ML approaches may amend effects of multicenter acquisition. We included a sample of 137 patients with clinically probable AD (MMSE 20.6±5.3) and 143 healthy elderly controls, scanned in nine different scanners. For diagnostic classification we used the DTI indices fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) and, for comparison, gray matter and white matter density maps from anatomical MRI. Data were classified using a Support Vector Machine (SVM) and a Naïve Bayes (NB) classifier. We used two cross-validation approaches, (i) test and training samples randomly drawn from the entire data set (pooled cross-validation) and (ii) data from each scanner as test set, and the data from the remaining scanners as training set (scanner-specific cross-validation). In the pooled cross-validation, SVM achieved an accuracy of 80% for FA and 83% for MD. Accuracies for NB were significantly lower, ranging between 68% and 75%. Removing variance components arising from scanners using principal component analysis did not significantly change the classification results for both classifiers. For the scanner-specific cross-validation, the classification accuracy was reduced for both SVM and NB. After mean correction, classification accuracy reached a level comparable to the results obtained from the pooled cross-validation. Our findings support the notion that machine learning classification allows robust classification of DTI data sets arising from multiple scanners, even if a new data set comes from a scanner that was not part of the training sample.
Background: The progression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia can be predicted by cognitive, neuroimaging, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) markers. Since most biomarkers reveal complementary information, a combination of biomarkers may increase the predictive power. We investigated which combination of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR)-sum-of-boxes, the word list delayed free recall from the Consortium to Establish a Registry of Dementia (CERAD) test battery, hippocampal volume (HCV), amyloid-beta1–42 (Aβ42), amyloid-beta1–40 (Aβ40) levels, the ratio of Aβ42/Aβ40, phosphorylated tau, and total tau (t-Tau) levels in the CSF best predicted a short-term conversion from MCI to AD dementia.
Methods: We used 115 complete datasets from MCI patients of the "Dementia Competence Network", a German multicenter cohort study with annual follow-up up to 3 years. MCI was broadly defined to include amnestic and nonamnestic syndromes. Variables known to predict progression in MCI patients were selected a priori. Nine individual predictors were compared by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. ROC curves of the five best two-, three-, and four-parameter combinations were analyzed for significant superiority by a bootstrapping wrapper around a support vector machine with linear kernel. The incremental value of combinations was tested for statistical significance by comparing the specificities of the different classifiers at a given sensitivity of 85%.
Results: Out of 115 subjects, 28 (24.3%) with MCI progressed to AD dementia within a mean follow-up period of 25.5 months. At baseline, MCI-AD patients were no different from stable MCI in age and gender distribution, but had lower educational attainment. All single biomarkers were significantly different between the two groups at baseline. ROC curves of the individual predictors gave areas under the curve (AUC) between 0.66 and 0.77, and all single predictors were statistically superior to Aβ40. The AUC of the two-parameter combinations ranged from 0.77 to 0.81. The three-parameter combinations ranged from AUC 0.80–0.83, and the four-parameter combination from AUC 0.81–0.82. None of the predictor combinations was significantly superior to the two best single predictors (HCV and t-Tau). When maximizing the AUC differences by fixing sensitivity at 85%, the two- to four-parameter combinations were superior to HCV alone.
Conclusion: A combination of two biomarkers of neurodegeneration (e.g., HCV and t-Tau) is not superior over the single parameters in identifying patients with MCI who are most likely to progress to AD dementia, although there is a gradual increase in the statistical measures across increasing biomarker combinations. This may have implications for clinical diagnosis and for selecting subjects for participation in clinical trials.