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Background: Predicted increases in suicide were not generally observed in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the picture may be changing and patterns might vary across demographic groups. We aimed to provide a timely, granular picture of the pandemic's impact on suicides globally.
Methods: We identified suicide data from official public-sector sources for countries/areas-within-countries, searching websites and academic literature and contacting data custodians and authors as necessary. We sent our first data request on 22nd June 2021 and stopped collecting data on 31st October 2021. We used interrupted time series (ITS) analyses to model the association between the pandemic's emergence and total suicides and suicides by sex-, age- and sex-by-age in each country/area-within-country. We compared the observed and expected numbers of suicides in the pandemic's first nine and first 10-15 months and used meta-regression to explore sources of variation.
Findings: We sourced data from 33 countries (24 high-income, six upper-middle-income, three lower-middle-income; 25 with whole-country data, 12 with data for area(s)-within-the-country, four with both). There was no evidence of greater-than-expected numbers of suicides in the majority of countries/areas-within-countries in any analysis; more commonly, there was evidence of lower-than-expected numbers. Certain sex, age and sex-by-age groups stood out as potentially concerning, but these were not consistent across countries/areas-within-countries. In the meta-regression, different patterns were not explained by countries’ COVID-19 mortality rate, stringency of public health response, economic support level, or presence of a national suicide prevention strategy. Nor were they explained by countries’ income level, although the meta-regression only included data from high-income and upper-middle-income countries, and there were suggestions from the ITS analyses that lower-middle-income countries fared less well.
Interpretation: Although there are some countries/areas-within-countries where overall suicide numbers and numbers for certain sex- and age-based groups are greater-than-expected, these countries/areas-within-countries are in the minority. Any upward movement in suicide numbers in any place or group is concerning, and we need to remain alert to and respond to changes as the pandemic and its mental health and economic consequences continue.
Psoriasis vulgaris is a common and chronic inflammatory skin disease which has the potential to significantly reduce the quality of life in severely affected patients. The incidence of psoriasis in Western industrialized countries ranges from 1.5 to 2%. Despite the large variety of treatment options available, patient surveys have revealed insufficient satisfaction with the efficacy of available treatments and a high rate of medication non-compliance. To optimize the treatment of psoriasis in Germany, the Deutsche Dermatologische Gesellschaft and the Berufsverband Deutscher Dermatologen (BVDD) have initiated a project to develop evidence-based guidelines for the management of psoriasis. The guidelines focus on induction therapy in cases of mild, moderate, and severe plaque-type psoriasis in adults. The short version of the guidelines reported here consist of a series of therapeutic recommendations that are based on a systematic literature search and subsequent discussion with experts in the field; they have been approved by a team of dermatology experts. In addition to the therapeutic recommendations provided in this short version, the full version of the guidelines includes information on contraindications, adverse events, drug interactions, practicality, and costs as well as detailed information on how best to apply the treatments described (for full version, please see Nast et al., JDDG, Suppl 2:S1–S126, 2006; or http://www.psoriasis-leitlinie.de).
Background: Intensive Care Resources are heavily utilized during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, risk stratification and prediction of SARS-CoV-2 patient clinical outcomes upon ICU admission remain inadequate. This study aimed to develop a machine learning model, based on retrospective & prospective clinical data, to stratify patient risk and predict ICU survival and outcomes. Methods: A Germany-wide electronic registry was established to pseudonymously collect admission, therapeutic and discharge information of SARS-CoV-2 ICU patients retrospectively and prospectively. Machine learning approaches were evaluated for the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. The Explainable Boosting Machine approach was selected as the most suitable method. Individual, non-linear shape functions for predictive parameters and parameter interactions are reported. Results: 1039 patients were included in the Explainable Boosting Machine model, 596 patients retrospectively collected, and 443 patients prospectively collected. The model for prediction of general ICU outcome was shown to be more reliable to predict “survival”. Age, inflammatory and thrombotic activity, and severity of ARDS at ICU admission were shown to be predictive of ICU survival. Patients’ age, pulmonary dysfunction and transfer from an external institution were predictors for ECMO therapy. The interaction of patient age with D-dimer levels on admission and creatinine levels with SOFA score without GCS were predictors for renal replacement therapy. Conclusions: Using Explainable Boosting Machine analysis, we confirmed and weighed previously reported and identified novel predictors for outcome in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Using this strategy, predictive modeling of COVID-19 ICU patient outcomes can be performed overcoming the limitations of linear regression models. Trial registration “ClinicalTrials” (clinicaltrials.gov) under NCT04455451.
Accurate measurement of the standard 235U(n,f) cross section from thermal to 170 keV neutron energy
(2020)
An accurate measurement of the 235U(n,f) cross section from thermal to 170 keV of neutron energy has recently been performed at n_TOF facility at CERN using 6Li(n,t)4He and 10B(n,α)7Li as references. This measurement has been carried out in order to investigate a possible overestimation of the 235U fission cross section evaluation provided by most recent libraries between 10 and 30 keV. A custom experimental apparatus based on in-beam silicon detectors has been used, and a Monte Carlo simulation in GEANT4 has been employed to characterize the setup and calculate detectors efficiency. The results evidenced the presence of an overestimation in the interval between 9 and 18 keV and the new data may be used to decrease the uncertainty of 235U(n,f) cross section in the keV region.
233U is the fissile nuclei in the Th-U fuel cycle with a particularily small neutron capture cross setion which is on average about one order of magnitude lower than its fission cross section. Hence, the measurement of the 233U(n, γ) cross section relies on a method to accurately distinguish between capture and fission γ-rays. A measurement of the 233U α-ratio has been performed at the n_TOF facility at CERN using a so-called fission tagging setup, coupling n_TOF 's Total Absorption Calorimeter with a novel fission chamber to tag the fission γ-rays. The experimental setup is described and essential parts of the analysis are discussed. Finally, a preliminary 233U α-ratio is presented.
We have measured the capture cross section of the 155Gd and 157Gd isotopes between 0.025 eV and 1 keV. The capture events were recorded by an array of 4 C6D6 detectors, and the capture yield was deduced exploiting the total energy detection system in combination with the Pulse Height Weighting Techniques. Because of the large cross section around thermal neutron energy, 4 metallic samples of different thickness were used to prevent problems related to self-shielding. The samples were isotopically enriched, with a cross contamination of the other isotope of less than 1.14%. The capture yield was analyzed with an R-Matrix code to describe the cross section in terms of resonance parameters. Near thermal energies, the results are significantly different from evaluations and from previous time-of-flight experiments. The data from the present measurement at n_TOF are publicly available in the experimental nuclear reaction database EXFOR.
Feasibility, design and sensitivity studies on innovative nuclear reactors that could address the issue of nuclear waste transmutation using fuels enriched in minor actinides, require high accuracy cross section data for a variety of neutron-induced reactions from thermal energies to several tens of MeV. The isotope 241Am (T1/2= 433 years) is present in high-level nuclear waste (HLW), representing about 1.8 % of the actinide mass in spent PWR UOx fuel. Its importance increases with cooling time due to additional production from the β-decay of 241Pu with a half-life of 14.3 years. The production rate of 241 Am in conventional reactors, including its further accumulation through the decay of 241Pu and its destruction through transmutation/incineration are very important parameters for the design of any recycling solution. In the present work, the 241 Am(n,f) reaction cross-section was measured using Micromegas detectors at the Experimental Area 2 of the n_TOF facility at CERN. For the measurement, the 235U(n,f) and 238U(n,f) reference reactions were used for the determination of the neutron flux. In the present work an overview of the experimental setup and the adopted data analysis techniques is given along with preliminary results.
Measurement of the 244Cm and 246Cm neutron-induced capture cross sections at the n_TOF facility
(2019)
The neutron capture reactions of the 244Cm and 246Cm isotopes open the path for the formation of heavier Cm isotopes and heavier elements such as Bk and Cf in a nuclear reactor. In addition, both isotopes belong to the minor actinides with a large contribution to the decay heat and to the neutron emission in irradiated fuels. There are only two previous 244Cm and 246Cm capture cross section measurements: one in 1969 using a nuclear explosion [1] and the most recent data measured at J-PARC in 2010 [2]. The data for both isotopes are very scarce due to the difficulties in performing the measurements: high intrinsic activity of the samples and limited facilities capable of providing isotopically enriched samples.
We have measured both neutron capture cross sections at the n_TOF Experimental Area 2 (EAR-2) with three C6 D6 detectors and also at Area 1 (EAR-1) with the TAC. Preliminary results assessing the quality and limitations (back-ground subtraction, measurement technique and counting statistics) of this new experimental datasets are presented and discussed.
233U is of key importance among the fissile nuclei in the Th-U fuel cycle. A particularity of 233U is its small neutron capture cross-section, which is on average about one order of magnitude lower than the fission cross-section. The accuracy in the measurement of the 233U capture cross-section depends crucially on an efficient capture-fission discrimination, thus a combined set-up of fission and γ-detectors is needed. A measurement of the 233U capture cross-section and capture-to-fission ratio was performed at the CERN n_TOF facility. The Total Absorption Calorimeter (TAC) of n_TOF was employed as γ-detector coupled with a novel compact ionization chamber as fission detector. A brief description of the experimental set-up will be given, and essential parts of the analysis procedure as well as the preliminary response of the set-up to capture are presented and discussed.
New neutron cross section measurements of minor actinides have been performed recently in order to reduce the uncertainties in the evaluated data, which is important for the design of advanced nuclear reactors and, in particular, for determining their performance in the transmutation of nuclear waste. We have measured the 241Am(n,γ) cross section at the n_TOF facility between 0.2 eV and 10 keV with a BaF2 Total Absorption Calorimeter, and the analysis of the measurement has been recently concluded. Our results are in reasonable agreement below 20 eV with the ones published by C. Lampoudis et al. in 2013, who reported a 22% larger capture cross section up to 110 eV compared to experimental and evaluated data published before. Our results also indicate that the 241Am(n,γ) cross section is underestimated in the present evaluated libraries between 20 eV and 2 keV by 25%, on average, and up to 35% for certain evaluations and energy ranges.