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Aim: Recent studies in southern Africa identified past biome stability as an important predictor of biodiversity. We aimed to assess the extent to which past biome stability predicts present global biodiversity patterns, and the extent to which projected climatic changes may lead to eventual biome changes in areas with constant past biome.
Location: Global.
Taxon: Spermatophyta; terrestrial vertebrates.
Methods: Biome constancy was assessed and mapped using results from 89 dynamic global vegetation model simulations, driven by outputs of palaeoclimate experiments spanning the past 140 ka. We tested the hypothesis that terrestrial vertebrate diversity is predicted by biome constancy. We also simulated potential future vegetation, and hence potential future biome patterns, and quantified and mapped the extent of projected eventual future biome change in areas of past constant biome.
Results: Approximately 11% of global ice-free land had a constant biome since 140 ka. Apart from areas of constant Desert, many areas with constant biome support high species diversity. All terrestrial vertebrate groups show a strong positive relationship between biome constancy and vertebrate diversity in areas of greater diversity, but no relationship in less diverse areas. Climatic change projected by 2100 commits 46%–66% of global ice-free land, and 34%–52% of areas of past constant biome (excluding areas of constant Desert) to eventual biome change.
Main conclusions: Past biome stability strongly predicts vertebrate diversity in areas of higher diversity. Future climatic changes will lead to biome changes in many areas of past constant biome, with profound implications for biodiversity conservation. Some projected biome changes will result in substantial reductions in biospheric carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services.
Community trait assembly in highly diverse tropical rainforests is still poorly understood. Based on more than a decade of field measurements in a biodiversity hotspot of southern Ecuador, we implemented plant trait variation and improved soil organic matter dynamics in a widely used dynamic vegetation model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator, LPJ-GUESS) to explore the main drivers of community assembly along an elevational gradient. In the model used here (LPJ-GUESS-NTD, where NTD stands for nutrient-trait dynamics), each plant individual can possess different trait combinations, and the community trait composition emerges via ecological sorting. Further model developments include plant growth limitation by phosphorous (P) and mycorrhizal nutrient uptake. The new model version reproduced the main observed community trait shift and related vegetation processes along the elevational gradient, but only if nutrient limitations to plant growth were activated. In turn, when traits were fixed, low productivity communities emerged due to reduced nutrient-use efficiency. Mycorrhizal nutrient uptake, when deactivated, reduced net primary production (NPP) by 61–72% along the gradient. Our results strongly suggest that the elevational temperature gradient drives community assembly and ecosystem functioning indirectly through its effect on soil nutrient dynamics and vegetation traits. This illustrates the importance of considering these processes to yield realistic model predictions.