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Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
Background and aims: One reason for the controversial discussion of whether the dual task (DT) walking paradigm has an added value for diagnosis in clinical conditions might be the use of different gait measurement systems. Therefore, the purpose was 1) to detect DT effects of central gait parameters obtained from five different gait analysis devices in young and old adults, 2) to assess the consistency of the measurement systems, and 3) to determine if the absolut and proportional DT costs (DTC) are greater than the system-measurement error under ST. Methods: Twelve old (72.2 ± 7.9y) and 14 young adults (28.3 ± 6.2y) walked a 14.7-m distance under ST and DT at a self-selected gait velocity. Interrater reliability, precision of the measurement and sensitivity to change were calculated under ST and DT. Results: An age effect was observed in almost all gait parameters for the ST condition. For DT only differences for stride length (p < .029, ɳ2p = .239) as well as single and double limb support (p = .036, ɳ2p = .227; p = .034, ɳ2p = .218) remained. The measurement systems showed a lower absolute agreement compared to consistency across all systems. Conclusions: When reporting DT effects, the real changes in performance and random measurement errors should always be accounted for. These findings have strong implications for interpreting DT effects.
Background: Simultaneous pancreas kidney transplantation (SPK), pancreas transplantation alone (PTA) or pancreas transplantation after kidney (PAK) are the only curative treatment options for patients with type 1 (juvenile) diabetes mellitus with or without impaired renal function. Unfortunately, transplant waiting lists for this indication are increasing because the current organ acceptability criteria are restrictive; morbidity and mortality significantly increase with time on the waitlist. Currently, only pancreas organs from donors younger than 50 years of age and with a body mass index (BMI) less than 30 are allocated for transplantation in the Eurotransplant (ET) area. To address this issue we designed a study to increase the available donor pool for these patients.
Methods/Design: This study is a prospective, multicenter (20 German centers), single blinded, non-randomized, two armed trial comparing outcome after SPK, PTA or PAK between organs with the currently allowed donor criteria versus selected organs from donors with extended criteria. Extended donor criteria are defined as organs procured from donors with a BMI of 30 to 34 or a donor age between 50 and 60 years. Immunosuppression is generally standardized using induction therapy with Myfortic, tacrolimus and low dose steroids. In principle, all patients on the waitlist for primary SPK, PTA or PAK are eligible for the clinical trial when they consent to possibly receiving an extended donor criteria organ. Patients receiving an organ meeting the current standard criteria for pancreas allocation (control arm) are compared to those receiving extended criteria organ (study arm); patients are blinded for a follow-up period of one year. The combined primary endpoint is survival of the pancreas allograft and pancreas allograft function after three months, as an early relevant outcome parameter for pancreas transplantation.
Discussion: The EXPAND Study has been initiated to investigate the hypothesis that locally allocated extended criteria organs can be transplanted with similar results compared to the currently allowed standard ET organ allocation. If our study shows a favorable comparison to standard organ allocation criteria, the morbidity and mortality for patients waiting for transplantation could be reduced in the future.
Trial registered at: NCT01384006
Background and Aims. Systemic treatment with sorafenib has been the standard of care (SOC) in patients with advanced Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage C hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for more than a decade. TACE has been reported to allow better local tumor control in selected patients with BCLC stage C HCC. Methods. A retrospective analysis of patients with BCLC stage C HCC that were treated with sorafenib and TACE was conducted; they were compared to BCLC stage C patients treated either with TACE or sorafenib in the same period of time outside a clinical trial. Results. A total of 201 patients with BCLC stage C were identified, who were treated with either sorafenib and TACE (group A; n = 54), sorafenib (group B; n = 82) or TACE (group C; n = 65). No significant difference in baseline characteristics was observed. Time to progression was 7.0 months (95% CI: 4.3–9.7), 4.1 months (95% CI: 3.6–4.7) and 5.0 months (95% CI: 2.9–7.1) in groups A, B and C, respectively, and overall survival was 16.5 months (95% CI: 15.0–18.1), 8.4 months (95% CI: 6.0–10.8) and 10.5 months (95% CI: 7.5–13.6), respectively (group A vs. group B: p < 0.001; group A vs. group C: p = 0.0023). Adverse events of grade 3/4 occurred in 34% of patients in group A. Conclusions. Although sorafenib is a SOC in patients with BCLC stage C HCC, TACE is frequently used as an additional locoregional treatment in selected patients. This combined approach resulted in a significant overall survival benefit in selected patients, although randomized trials have not yet proven this benefit.
Large-scale genetic census of an elusive carnivore, the European wildcat (Felis s. silvestris)
(2016)
The European wildcat, Felis silvestris silvestris, serves as a prominent target species for the reconnection of central European forest habitats. Monitoring of this species, however, appears difficult due to its elusive behaviour and the ease of confusion with domestic cats. Recently, evidence for multiple wildcat occurrences outside its known distribution has accumulated in several areas across Central Europe, questioning the validity of available distribution data for this species. Our aim was to assess the fine-scale distribution and genetic status of the wildcat in its central European distribution range. We compiled and analysed genetic samples from roadkills and hundreds of recent hair-trapping surveys and applied phylogenetic and genetic clustering methods to discriminate wild and domestic cats and identify population subdivision. 2220 individuals were confirmed as either wildcat (n = 1792) or domestic cat (n = 342), and the remaining 86 (3.9 %) were identified as hybrids between the two. Remarkably, genetic distinction of domestic cats, wildcats and their hybrids was only possible when taking into account the presence of two highly distinct genetic lineages of wildcats, with a suture zone in central Germany. 44 % of the individual wildcats where sampled outside the previously published distribution. Our analyses confirm a relatively continuous spatial presence of wildcats across large parts of the study area in contrast to previous analyses indicating a highly fragmented distribution. Our results suggest that wildcat conservation and management should take advantage of the higher than previously assumed dispersal potential of wildcats, which may use wildlife corridors very efficiently.
The tetracycline-binding RNA aptamer (TC-aptamer) is a synthetic riboswitch that binds the antibiotic tetracycline (TC) with exceptionally high affinity. Although a crystal structure exists of the TC-bound state, little is known about the conformational dynamics and changes upon ligand binding. In this study, pulsed electron paramagnetic resonance techniques for measuring distances (PELDOR) in combination with rigid nitroxide spin labels (Çm spin label) were used to investigate the conformational flexibility of the TC-aptamer in the presence and absence of TC at different Mg2+ concentrations. TC was found to be the essential factor for stabilizing the tertiary structure at intermediate Mg2+ concentrations. At higher Mg2+ concentrations, Mg2+ alone is sufficient to stabilize the tertiary structure. In addition, the orientation of the two spin-labeled RNA helices with respect to each other was analyzed with orientation-selective PELDOR and compared to the crystal structure. These results demonstrate for the first time the unique value of the Çm spin label in combination with PELDOR to provide information about conformational flexibilities and orientations of secondary structure elements of biologically relevant RNAs.
The thrombopoietin receptor agonist eltrombopag was successfully used against human cytomegalovirus (HCMV)-associated thrombocytopenia refractory to immunomodulatory and antiviral drugs. These effects were ascribed to the effects of eltrombopag on megakaryocytes. Here, we tested whether eltrombopag may also exert direct antiviral effects. Therapeutic eltrombopag concentrations inhibited HCMV replication in human fibroblasts and adult mesenchymal stem cells infected with six different virus strains and drug-resistant clinical isolates. Eltrombopag also synergistically increased the anti-HCMV activity of the mainstay drug ganciclovir. Time-of-addition experiments suggested that eltrombopag interfered with HCMV replication after virus entry. Eltrombopag was effective in thrombopoietin receptor-negative cells, and the addition of Fe3+ prevented the anti-HCMV effects, indicating that it inhibits HCMV replication via iron chelation. This may be of particular interest for the treatment of cytopenias after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, as HCMV reactivation is a major reason for transplantation failure. Since therapeutic eltrombopag concentrations are effective against drug-resistant viruses, and synergistically increase the effects of ganciclovir, eltrombopag is also a drug-repurposing candidate for the treatment of therapy-refractory HCMV diseas.
The three-dimensional quantification of small scale processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is one of the challenges of current atmospheric research and requires the development of new measurement strategies. This work presents first results from the newly developed Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) obtained during the ESSenCe and TACTS/ESMVal aircraft campaigns. The focus of this work is on the so-called dynamics mode data characterized by a medium spectral and a very high spatial resolution. The retrieval strategy for the derivation of two- and three-dimensional constituent fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is presented. Uncertainties of the main retrieval targets (temperature, O3, HNO3 and CFC-12) and their spatial resolution are discussed. During ESSenCe, high resolution two-dimensional cross-sections have been obtained. Comparisons to collocated remote-sensing and in-situ data indicate a good agreement between the data sets. During TACTS/ESMVal a tomographic flight pattern to sense an intrusion of stratospheric air deep into the troposphere has been performed. This filament could be reconstructed with an unprecedented spatial resolution of better than 500 m vertically and 20 km × 20 km horizontally.
Chlorine monoxide (ClO) plays a key role in stratospheric ozone loss processes at midlatitudes. We present two balloonborne in situ measurements of ClO conducted in northern hemisphere midlatitudes during the period of the maximum of total inorganic chlorine loading in the atmosphere. Both ClO measurements were conducted on board the TRIPLE balloon payload, launched in November 1996 in Le´on, Spain, and in May 1999 in Aire sur l’Adour, France. For both flights a ClO daylight and night time vertical profile could be derived over an altitude range of approximately 15–31 km. ClO mixing ratios are compared to model simulations performed with the photochemical box model version of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). Simulations along 24-h backward trajectories were performed to study the diurnal variation of ClO in the midlatitude lower stratosphere. Model simulations for the flight launched in Aire sur l’Adour 1999 show a good agreement with the ClO measurements. For the flight launched in Le´on 1996, a similar good agreement is found, except at around ~ 650 K potential temperature (~26km altitude). However, a tendency is found that for solar zenith angles greater than 86°–87° the simulated ClO mixing ratios substantially overestimate measured ClO by approximately a factor of 2.5 or more for both flights. Therefore we conclude that no indication can be deduced from the presented ClO measurements that substantial uncertainties exist in midlatitude chlorine chemistry of the stratosphere. An exception is the situation at solar zenith angles greater than 86°–87° where model simulations substantial overestimate ClO observations.
The three-dimensional quantification of small-scale processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is one of the challenges of current atmospheric research and requires the development of new measurement strategies. This work presents the first results from the newly developed Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) obtained during the ESSenCe (ESa Sounder Campaign) and TACTS/ESMVal (TACTS: Transport and composition in the upper troposphere/lowermost stratosphere, ESMVal: Earth System Model Validation) aircraft campaigns. The focus of this work is on the so-called dynamics-mode data characterized by a medium-spectral and a very-high-spatial resolution. The retrieval strategy for the derivation of two- and three-dimensional constituent fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is presented. Uncertainties of the main retrieval targets (temperature, O3, HNO3, and CFC-12) and their spatial resolution are discussed. During ESSenCe, high-resolution two-dimensional cross-sections have been obtained. Comparisons to collocated remote-sensing and in situ data indicate a good agreement between the data sets. During TACTS/ESMVal, a tomographic flight pattern to sense an intrusion of stratospheric air deep into the troposphere was performed. It was possible to reconstruct this filament at an unprecedented spatial resolution of better than 500 m vertically and 20 × 20 km horizontally.