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Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
Nucleation and growth of aerosol particles from atmospheric vapors constitutes a major source of global cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The fraction of newly formed particles that reaches CCN sizes is highly sensitive to particle growth rates, especially for particle sizes <10 nm, where coagulation losses to larger aerosol particles are greatest. Recent results show that some oxidation products from biogenic volatile organic compounds are major contributors to particle formation and initial growth. However, whether oxidized organics contribute to particle growth over the broad span of tropospheric temperatures remains an open question, and quantitative mass balance for organic growth has yet to be demonstrated at any temperature. Here, in experiments performed under atmospheric conditions in the Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets (CLOUD) chamber at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), we show that rapid growth of organic particles occurs over the range from −25 ∘C to 25 ∘C. The lower extent of autoxidation at reduced temperatures is compensated by the decreased volatility of all oxidized molecules. This is confirmed by particle-phase composition measurements, showing enhanced uptake of relatively less oxygenated products at cold temperatures. We can reproduce the measured growth rates using an aerosol growth model based entirely on the experimentally measured gas-phase spectra of oxidized organic molecules obtained from two complementary mass spectrometers. We show that the growth rates are sensitive to particle curvature, explaining widespread atmospheric observations that particle growth rates increase in the single-digit-nanometer size range. Our results demonstrate that organic vapors can contribute to particle growth over a wide range of tropospheric temperatures from molecular cluster sizes onward.
We present measurements of exclusive ensuremathπ+,0 and η production in pp reactions at 1.25GeV and 2.2GeV beam kinetic energy in hadron and dielectron channels. In the case of π+ and π0 , high-statistics invariant-mass and angular distributions are obtained within the HADES acceptance as well as acceptance-corrected distributions, which are compared to a resonance model. The sensitivity of the data to the yield and production angular distribution of Δ (1232) and higher-lying baryon resonances is shown, and an improved parameterization is proposed. The extracted cross-sections are of special interest in the case of pp → pp η , since controversial data exist at 2.0GeV; we find \ensuremathσ=0.142±0.022 mb. Using the dielectron channels, the π0 and η Dalitz decay signals are reconstructed with yields fully consistent with the hadronic channels. The electron invariant masses and acceptance-corrected helicity angle distributions are found in good agreement with model predictions.
Partial wave analysis of the reaction p(3.5 GeV) + p → pK +Λ to search for the "ppK−" bound state
(2015)
Employing the Bonn–Gatchina partial wave analysis framework (PWA), we have analyzed HADES data of the reaction p(3.5 GeV) + p → pK +Λ. This reaction might contain information about the kaonic cluster “ppK −” (with quantum numbers J P = 0− and total isospin I = 1/2) via its decay into pΛ. Due to interference effects in our coherent description of the data, a hypothetical KNN (or, specifically “ppK −”) cluster signal need not necessarily show up as a pronounced feature (e.g. a peak) in an invariant mass spectrum like pΛ. Our PWA analysis includes a variety of resonant and non-resonant intermediate states and delivers a good description of our data (various angular distributions and two-hadron invariant mass spectra) without a contribution of a KNN cluster. At a confidence level of CLs = 95% such a cluster cannot contribute more than 2–12% to the total cross section with a pK +Λ final state, which translates into a production cross-section between 0.7 μb and 4.2 μb, respectively. The range of the upper limit depends on the assumed cluster mass, width and production process.
Background: Liver cirrhosis is a relevant comorbidity with increasing prevalence. Postoperative decompensation and development of complications in patients with cirrhosis remains a frequent clinical problem. Surgery has been discussed as a precipitating event for decompensation and complications of cirrhosis, but the underlying pathomechanisms are still obscure. The aim of this study was to analyze the role of abdominal extrahepatic surgery in cirrhosis on portal pressure and fibrosis in a preclinical model. Methods: Compensated liver cirrhosis was induced using tetrachlormethane (CCL4) inhalation and bile duct ligation (BDL) models in rats, non-cirrhotic portal hypertension by partial portal vein ligation (PPVL). Intestinal manipulation (IM) as a model of extrahepatic abdominal surgery was performed. 2 and 7 days after IM, portal pressure was measured in-vivo. Hydroxyproline measurements, Sirius Red staining and qPCR measurements of the liver were performed for evaluation of fibrosis development and hepatic inflammation. Laboratory parameters of liver function in serum were analyzed. Results: Portal pressure was significantly elevated 2 and 7 days after IM in both models of cirrhosis. In the non-cirrhotic model the trend was the same, while not statistically significant. In both cirrhotic models, IM shows strong effects of decompensation, with significant weight loss, elevation of liver enzymes and hypoalbuminemia. 7 days after IM in the BDL group, Sirius red staining and hydroxyproline levels showed significant progression of fibrosis and significantly elevated mRNA levels of hepatic inflammation compared to the respective control group. A progression of fibrosis was not observed in the CCL4 model. Conclusion: In animal models of cirrhosis with continuous liver injury (BDL), IM increases portal pressure, and development of fibrosis. Perioperative portal pressure and hence inflammation processes may be therapeutic targets to prevent post-operative decompensation in cirrhosis.
Triple differential cross sections d3 sigma /dp3 for charged pions produced in symmetric heavy-ion collisions were measured with the KaoS magnetic spectrometer at the heavy-ion synchrotron facility SIS at GSI. The correlations between the momentum vectors of charged pions and the reaction plane in 197Au+197Au collisions at an incident energy of 1 GeV/nucleon were determined. We observe, for the first time, an azimuthally anisotropic distribution of pions, with enhanced emission perpendicular to the reaction plane. The anisotropy is most pronounced for pions of high transverse momentum in semicentral collisions.
Aquatic ecosystems are globally contaminated with microplastics (MP). However, comparative data on MP levels in freshwater systems is still scarce. Therefore, the aim of this study is to quantify MP abundance in water and sediment of the German river Elbe using visual, spectroscopic (Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy) and thermo analytical (pyrolysis gas chromatography mass spectrometry) methods. Samples from eleven German sites along the German part of the Elbe were collected, both in the water and sediment phase, in order to better understand MP sinks and transport mechanisms. MP concentrations differed between the water and sediment phase. Sediment concentrations (mean: 3,350,000 particles m−3, 125–5000 μm MP) were in average 600,000-fold higher than water concentrations (mean: 5.57 particles m−3, 150–5000 μm MP). The abundance varied between the sampling sites: In sediments, the abundance decreased in the course of the river while in water samples no such clear trend was observed. This may be explained by a barrage retaining sediments and limiting tidal influence in the upstream parts of the river. Particle shape differed site-specifically with one site having exceptionally high quantities of spheres, most probably due to industrial emissions of PS-DVB resin beads. Suspended MP consisted predominantly of polyethylene and polypropylene whereas sediments contained a higher diversity of polymer types. Determined MP concentrations correspond well to previous results from other European rivers. In a global context, MP levels in the Elbe relate to the lower (water) to middle section (sediment) of the global range of MP concentrations determined for rivers worldwide. This highlights that elevated MP levels are not only found in single countries or continents, but that MP pollution is an issue of global concern.
The CBM experiment will investigate heavy-ion collisions at beam energies from 8 to 45 AGeV at the future accelerator facility FAIR. The goal of the experiment is to study the QCD phase diagram in the vincinity of the QCD critical point. To do so, CBM aims at measuring rare probes among them open charm. In order to identify those rare and short lived particles despite the rich combinatorial background generated in heavy ion collisions, a micro vertex detector (MVD) providing an unprecedented combination of high rate capability and radiation hardness, very light material budget and excellent granularity is required. In this work, we will discuss the concept of this detector and summarize the status of the R&D.
Ventriculoperitoneal shunts equipped with a reservoir and a valve to manually switch off the shunt function can be used for intraventricular injections of therapeutics in patients suffering from a communicating hydrocephalus caused by leptomeningeal metastases. These shunt devices avoid the risk of injecting therapeutics through the distal leg of the shunt system into the intraperitoneal space, which may cause toxicity. Furthermore, regular intraventricular injections of chemotherapeutics help to maintain sufficient concentrations in the ventricular space. Therefore, ventriculoperitoneal shunts equipped with an on-off valve are a useful tool to reliably inject chemotherapeutics into the ventricles. In order to systematically assess feasibility, safety, and efficacy of this procedure, we performed a retrospective analysis of all patients with leptomeningeal metastases who had received a shunt system at our institution. In total, six adult patients had a ventriculoperitoneal shunt equipped with an on-off valve implanted. Out of these six patients, two patients subsequently received intraventricular injections of chemotherapeutics. The configuration of the valve setting and the intraventricular injections were easily feasible in the setting of a neuro-oncology department. The complication of a shunt leakage occurred in one patient following the first intraventricular injection. No extra-central nervous system (CNS) toxicities were observed. In summary, ventriculoperitoneal shunts with on-off valves are useful tools for reliable intraventricular administration of therapeutics.
The production of Σ0 baryons in the nuclear reaction p (3.5 GeV) + Nb (corresponding to sNN=3.18 GeV) is studied with the detector set-up HADES at GSI, Darmstadt. Σ0s were identified via the decay Σ0→Λγ with subsequent decays Λ→pπ− in coincidence with a e+e− pair from either external (γ→e+e−) or internal (Dalitz decay γ⁎→e+e−) gamma conversions. The differential Σ0 cross section integrated over the detector acceptance, i.e. the rapidity interval 0.5<y<1.1, has been extracted as ΔσΣ0=2.3±(0.2)stat±(−0.6+0.6)sys±(0.2)norm mb, yielding the inclusive production cross section in full phase space σΣ0total=5.8±(0.5)stat±(−1.4+1.4)sys±(0.6)norm±(1.7)extrapol mb by averaging over different extrapolation methods. The Λall/Σ0 ratio within the HADES acceptance is equal to 2.3±(0.2)stat±(−0.6+0.6)sys. The obtained rapidity and momentum distributions are compared to transport model calculations. The Σ0 yield agrees with the statistical model of particle production in nuclear reactions. Keywords: Hyperons, Strangeness, Proton, Nucleus.
Low risk anomalies?
(2016)
This paper shows theoretically and empirically that beta- and volatility-based low risk anomalies are driven by return skewness. The empirical patterns concisely match the predictions of our model which generates skewness of stock returns via default risk. With increasing downside risk, the standard capital asset pricing model increasingly overestimates required equity returns relative to firms' true (skew-adjusted) market risk. Empirically, the profitability of betting against beta/volatility increases with firms' downside risk. Our results suggest that the returns to betting against beta/volatility do not necessarily pose asset pricing puzzles but rather that such strategies collect premia that compensate for skew risk.
We study the light scalar mesons a_0(980) and kappa using N_f = 2+1+1 flavor lattice QCD. In order to probe the internal structure of these scalar mesons, and in particular to identify, whether a sizeable tetraquark component is present, we use a large set of operators, including diquark-antidiquark, mesonic molecule and two-meson operators. The inclusion of disconnected diagrams, which are technically rather challenging, but which would allow us to extend our work to e.g. the f_0(980) meson, is introduced and discussed.
We compute hybrid static potentials in SU(3) lattice gauge theory. We present a method to automatically generate a large set of suitable creation operators with defined quantum numbers from elementary building blocks. We show preliminary results for several channels and discuss, which structures of the gluonic flux tube seem to be realized by the ground states in these channels.
(1) Background: A lesion within the dentato-rubro-olivary pathway (DROP) in the posterior fossa can cause secondary neurodegeneration of the inferior olivary nucleus: so-called hypertrophic olivary degeneration (HOD). The clinical syndrome of HOD occurs slowly over months and may be overlooked in progressive neuro-oncological diseases. Posterior fossa tumors are often located near these strategic structures. The goal of this study was to analyze the systematics of HOD occurrence in neuro-oncological patients.
(2) Methods: The neuroradiological database of the university healthcare center was scanned for HOD-related terms from 2010 to 2019. After excluding patients with other causes of HOD, 12 datasets from neuro-oncological patients were analyzed under predetermined criteria.
(3) Results: Patients received multimodal tumor treatments including neurosurgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. HOD occurred both unilaterally (left n = 4; right n = 5) and bilaterally (n = 3). Though the mass effect of posterior fossa tumors had already affected strategic structures of the DROP, none of the patients showed signs of HOD on MRI until therapeutic measures including neurosurgery affecting the DROP were applied. HOD was visible on MRI within a median of 6 months after the neurosurgical intervention. In 67%, the presumed underlying surgical lesion in the DROP lay in the contralateral dentate nucleus.
(4) Conclusion: In a selected cohort of neuro-oncological patients, therapeutic lesions within the DROP were associated with HOD occurrence.
Die optimale Nutzung vorhandener Potentiale von Beschäftigten sowie die bestmögliche Unterstützung von Unternehmen bei der Entwicklung ihrer Beschäftigten sind wichtige Stellschrauben
für eine gezielte und innovative Fachkräftesicherung. Allerdings bedarf solch eine Strategie zunächst einer Transparenz, die Orientierung darüber schafft, in welchem Maße sogenannte unter- und überwertige Beschäftigung stattfindet und in welchen Branchen und Berufsgruppen dies der Fall ist.
Unterwertige Beschäftigung liegt vor, wenn der formale Berufsabschluss höher als die tatsächlich ausgeführte Tätigkeit ist. In diesen Fällen wird davon ausgegangen, dass sich noch weitere Potentiale der Beschäftigten erschließen lassen. Die Umkehrung findet sich bei der überwertigen Beschäftigung. Hier liegen die formalen Qualifikationsabschlüsse deutlich unter den Anforderungen der aktuellen Beschäftigung. Entsprechend sind Qualifizierungsprozesse notwendig, um den höheren Anforderungen gerecht werden zu können. Dabei sind innerbetriebliche, auch informelle Lernprozesse von großer Bedeutung. Neben diesen beiden Formen des vertikalen (formalen) Qualifikationsmismatches können zudem horizontale Mismatches vorliegen. Dies trifft zu, wenn Kompetenzen, häufig Softskills, nicht im Arbeitsvollzug eingesetzt werden können. Auch hier kann von noch zu erschließenden Potentialen ausgegangen werden. Auf Basis von Daten sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigter ist ein Abgleich zwischen dem formalen Berufsabschluss sowie dem formalen beruflichen Anforderungsniveau möglich. Anhand des Abgleichs lässt sich formale unter- und überwertige Beschäftigung ermitteln. Einschätzungen zur Art und zum Umfang horizontaler Mismatches können derzeit auf der Basis von Primärdaten stattfinden.
We compute the static-light baryon spectrum with Nf = 2 flavors of sea quarks using Wilson twisted mass lattice QCD. As light valence quarks we consider quarks, which have the same mass as the sea quarks with corresponding pion masses in the range 340MeV<∼ mPS<∼ 525MeV, as well as partially quenched quarks, which have the mass of the physical s quark. We extract masses of states with isospin I = 0,1/2,1, with strangeness S = 0,−1,−2, with angular momentum of the light degrees of freedom j = 0,1 and with parity P = +,−. We present a preliminary extrapolation in the light u/d and an interpolation in the heavy b quark mass to the physical point and compare with available experimental results.
We perform a detailed study of the adjoint static potential in the pseudoparticle approach, which is a model for SU(2) Yang-Mills theory. We find agreement with the Casimir scaling hypothesis and there is clear evidence for string breaking. At the same time the potential in the fundamental representation is linear for large separations. Our results are in qualitative agreement with results from lattice computations.
Semi-dry grasslands were once widely distributed communities, but today they represent some of the most vulnerable habitats in Central Europe. European and national legislation and non-governmental organizations have managed to protect some of the remaining fragments. However, despite their status as Natura 2000 habitats, they are often endangered due to improper management, fragmentation and edge effects from adjacent croplands. By using a sample of 44 semi-dry hay meadows in the south-eastern Alpine Foreland of Styria, we investigated how species-richness and trait composition of semi-dry grassland species respond to variation in patch size, connectivity, abiotic site factors and management regimes. We used linear regression models to identify the most important drivers for richness of typical semi-dry grassland species and thus conservation value. The number of typical semi-dry grassland species was highest in well-connected fragments, i.e. units that shared two or more borders with neighbouring species-rich grasslands. Furthermore, large semi-dry grasslands (> 8000 m²) had highest numbers of semi-dry grassland species and highest relevance for conservation; no difference was found among smaller fragment sizes. Unregular management was associated with increased presence of competitive species which replaced stress-tolerant specialists. Our study indicates that under eutrophication, small fragment size and isolation, only large semi-dry grasslands can sustain a high number of species with high conservation value. The conservation value of smaller semi-dry grassland fragments could be improved by buffer zones, adapted mowing treatments and periodical sheep grazing.
Background: The progression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia can be predicted by cognitive, neuroimaging, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) markers. Since most biomarkers reveal complementary information, a combination of biomarkers may increase the predictive power. We investigated which combination of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR)-sum-of-boxes, the word list delayed free recall from the Consortium to Establish a Registry of Dementia (CERAD) test battery, hippocampal volume (HCV), amyloid-beta1–42 (Aβ42), amyloid-beta1–40 (Aβ40) levels, the ratio of Aβ42/Aβ40, phosphorylated tau, and total tau (t-Tau) levels in the CSF best predicted a short-term conversion from MCI to AD dementia.
Methods: We used 115 complete datasets from MCI patients of the "Dementia Competence Network", a German multicenter cohort study with annual follow-up up to 3 years. MCI was broadly defined to include amnestic and nonamnestic syndromes. Variables known to predict progression in MCI patients were selected a priori. Nine individual predictors were compared by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. ROC curves of the five best two-, three-, and four-parameter combinations were analyzed for significant superiority by a bootstrapping wrapper around a support vector machine with linear kernel. The incremental value of combinations was tested for statistical significance by comparing the specificities of the different classifiers at a given sensitivity of 85%.
Results: Out of 115 subjects, 28 (24.3%) with MCI progressed to AD dementia within a mean follow-up period of 25.5 months. At baseline, MCI-AD patients were no different from stable MCI in age and gender distribution, but had lower educational attainment. All single biomarkers were significantly different between the two groups at baseline. ROC curves of the individual predictors gave areas under the curve (AUC) between 0.66 and 0.77, and all single predictors were statistically superior to Aβ40. The AUC of the two-parameter combinations ranged from 0.77 to 0.81. The three-parameter combinations ranged from AUC 0.80–0.83, and the four-parameter combination from AUC 0.81–0.82. None of the predictor combinations was significantly superior to the two best single predictors (HCV and t-Tau). When maximizing the AUC differences by fixing sensitivity at 85%, the two- to four-parameter combinations were superior to HCV alone.
Conclusion: A combination of two biomarkers of neurodegeneration (e.g., HCV and t-Tau) is not superior over the single parameters in identifying patients with MCI who are most likely to progress to AD dementia, although there is a gradual increase in the statistical measures across increasing biomarker combinations. This may have implications for clinical diagnosis and for selecting subjects for participation in clinical trials.