Refine
Document Type
- Doctoral Thesis (3) (remove)
Language
- English (3)
Has Fulltext
- yes (3)
Is part of the Bibliography
- no (3)
Keywords
- Chinese river basins, water withdrawals, dam construction, river flow alteration, flow indicators, fish species richness, fish catch, riparian vegetation cover, quantitative analysis (1)
- Ecology (1)
- Global change (1)
- Plant physiology (1)
- Remote sensing (1)
- Savanna (1)
- Species distribution modelling (1)
Institute
- Geowissenschaften (3) (remove)
In the past sixty years, excessive water consumption and dam construction have significantly influenced natural flow regimes and surface freshwater ecosystems throughout China, and thus resulted in serious environmental problems. In order to balance the competing water demands between human and environment and provide knowledge on sustainable water management, assessments on anthropogenic flow alterations and their impacts on aquatic and riparian ecosystems in China are needed.
In this study, the first evaluation on quantitative relationships between anthropogenic flow alterations and ecological responses in eleven river basins and watersheds in China was performed based on the data that could be obtained from published case studies. Quantitative relationships between changes in average annual discharge, seasonal low flow and seasonal high flow and changes in ecological indicators (fish diversity, fish catch and vegetation cover, etc.) were analyzed. The results showed that changes in riparian vegetation cover as well as changes in fish diversity and fish catch were strongly correlated with the changes in flow magnitude (r = 0.77, 0.66), especially with changes in average annual river discharge. In addition, more than half of the variations in vegetation cover could be explained by changes in average annual river discharge (r² = 0.63) and roughly 50 % changes in fish catch in arid and semi-arid region and 60% changes of fish catch in humid region could be related to alterations in average annual river discharge (r² = 0.53, 0.58).
In a supplementary analysis of this study, the first estimation on quantitative relationships between decreases in native fish species richness and anthropogenic flow alterations in 34 river basins and sub-basins in China was conducted. Linear relationships between losses of native fish species and five ecologically relevant flow indicators were analyzed by single and multiple regression models. For the single regression analysis, significant linear relationships were detected for the indicators of long-term average annual discharge (ILTA) and statistical low flow Q90 (IQ90). For the multiple regressions, no indicator other than ILTA has significant relationships with changes in number of fish species mainly due to collinearity. Two conclusions emerged from the analysis: 1) losses of fish species were positively correlated with changes in ILTA in China and 2) indicator of ILTA was dominant over other flow indicators included in this research for the given dataset. These results provide a guideline for the sustainable water resources management in rivers with high risk of fish extinction in China.
The timing and duration of leaf deployment strongly regulate earth-atmosphere interactions and biotic processes. Leaf dynamics therefore have major implications for life on earth, including the global energy balance, carbon and water cycles, feedbacks to climate, species extinction risk and agriculture. Evidence of shifts in the timing of leaf deployment and senescence (leaf phenology) as a result of climate change has been accumulating over the past decades, particularly in relation to spring phenology in the northern hemisphere. However, leaf phenological change in other parts of the world has received less attention. This thesis quantifies global phenological change over the past three decades using remotely sensed data. Phenological change was found to be widespread and severe, also in the southern hemisphere. While the detected change testifies of the phenological plasticity of many plant species, it is not clear if the duration of leaf deployment (leaf habit) is equally sensitive to environmental change. Since evergreen and deciduous leaf habits are often distinctly sorted along environmental gradients, ecologists have hypothesised that these patterns result from natural selection for an optimal leaf habit, under a given environmental regime. Such evolutionary convergence can be examined by testing if the physiological niche that is occupied by a particular leaf habit (evergreen or deciduous) is similar among regions with distinct evolutionary histories. Using a process-based model of plant growth and a constructed map of evergreen and deciduous vegetation, the physiological niche of leaf habits was quantified in four global biogeographic realms. Substantial niche overlap was found between the same leaf habit in different realms, suggesting evolutionary convergence of the physiological niche. This implies a sensitivity of leaf habit to environmental change, as environmental variables determine the geographic space where the physiological niche allows a positive carbon balance, and therefore occurrence of the leaf habit. Since the physiological niche consists of the integrated effects of physiological traits and trade-offs, environmental dependencies and leaf habit and phenology, an understanding of the carbon economy of individual plants requires decomposing the physiological niche into its components. Using empirical data on leaf phenology, leaf habit and physiological processes from woody species in a seasonally dry African savanna, a simple carbon balance model was parametrised. Carbon gain varied considerably between species as a result of substantial variation in leaf habit, leaf phenology and physiological traits. The multiple lines of evidence in this thesis therefore suggest that, while convergent selective forces may determine the dominant leaf habit in a particular environment, inter-specific variation is substantial, potentially as a consequence of historical contingencies or competitive interactions.
Semi-arid African ecosystems influence trends and variability in global terrestrial carbon dynamics. However, there are uncertainties in potential effects of future climates for semi-arid ecosystems, especially for niche ecosystems. At the same time, African ecosystems provide the livelihoods and ecosystem services for around 1.4 billion people. Future population growth and associated changes in land use pose a challenge for the protection of African biodiversity. Therefore, this work focussed on future impacts of climate change on African ecosystems and carbon dynamics and also for African protected areas (PAs), where they may cooccur with other global change factors. Another focus was on uncertainties associated with future projections and with modelling the Nama Karoo, as an example of a semi-arid niche ecosystem. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) were the main research tool.
In Chapter 2, we analysed climate change impacts on African ecosystems and carbon pools until the end of the 21st century and associated uncertainties based on an ensemble of vegetation simulations with the DVM adaptive dynamic vegetation model (aDGVM). We investigated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and two climate change scenarios (medium (RCP4.5) and high emissions (RCP8.5); RCP - representative concentration pathway) on vegetation changes. Differences in the simulated vegetation were primarily driven by assumptions about the influence of CO2 on plants. Elevated CO2 concentrations led to increased total aboveground vegetation biomass and shrub encroachment into grasslands and savannas for both climate scenarios. In simulations without the direct influence of CO2 on plants, there was hardly any shrub encroachment and vegetation biomass decreased or varied between a slight decrease in some cases and a slight increase in others. Based on these results, biome changes due to climate change are likely in Africa in the future. Due to the large uncertainties in future projections, strategies to adapt to climate change must be flexible.
The simulated vegetation in Chapter 2 represented potential, natural vegetation and is particularly suitable to investigate PAs. However, PAs do not exist isolated from their environment and social developments. In Chapter 3, the vegetation projections with CO2 effect from Chapter 2 were combined with projections for population density and land use. Except for many PAs in North Africa, most PAs were adversely affected by at least one of the three drivers by the end of the 21st century in both investigated scenarios ("middle-of-the-road" and "fossil-fuelled development"). Cooccurrence of the drivers varied by region and scenario for PAs. Both scenarios implied increasing challenges for the conservation of African biodiversity in PAs. The impact of climate change on vegetation is likely to be exacerbated by socio-economic change for most African PAs. Strong mitigation of future climate change together with equitable societal development may facilitate successful ecosystem conservation.
The simulations in Chapters 2 and 3 showed large-scale patterns of vegetation change, but their low resolution makes them unsuitable for local analyses. In Chapter 4, the challenges of simulating smaller scale, semi-arid ecosystems and their carbon cycle were analysed for the Nama Karoo with the aDGVM2 and its shrub module. The aDGVM2 is based on the aDGVM, but represents plants more flexibly. In all tested aDGVM2 configurations, the carbon fluxes improved compared to initial simulations but still overestimated them. The measured morphology of the dwarf shrubs and soil water dynamics were not reproduced in aDGVM2. Semi-arid soil water dynamics and coping strategies of semi-arid dwarf shrubs under drought stress are not adequately implemented in the aDGVM2. Further field research on semi-arid water and carbon dynamics of vegetation is necessary to parameterise the aDGVM2 for dwarf shrubs. If these challenges are overcome, DVMs can be a powerful tool for much-needed research on the impacts of climate change on the Nama Karoo.
The analyses have shown that climate change under medium to high emission scenarios is likely to lead to large-scale changes in ecosystems and the carbon balance in Africa. Because lower emissions scenarios come with less uncertainty, climate change adaptation strategies likely need to be less complex or extensive if climate change is minimised. For African PAs, the challenges of climate change may be exacerbated by socio-economic factors to a regionally varying extent. This research suggests that successful ecosystem conservation depends on climate change mitigation measures and ensuring equitable, sustainable development. The shown uncertainties, e.g., in the implementation of the CO2 effect on plants or vegetation dynamics in more niche ecosystems, help to focus future research efforts and increase our understanding of the range of plausible futures we may need to adapt to.