004 Datenverarbeitung; Informatik
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Optimal investment decisions by institutional investors require accurate predictions with respect to the development of stock markets. Motivated by previous research that revealed the unsatisfactory performance of existing stock market prediction models, this study proposes a novel prediction approach. Our proposed system combines Artificial Intelligence (AI) with data from Virtual Investment Communities (VICs) and leverages VICs’ ability to support the process of predicting stock markets. An empirical study with two different models using real data shows the potential of the AI-based system with VICs information as an instrument for stock market predictions. VICs can be a valuable addition but our results indicate that this type of data is only helpful in certain market phases.
This article discusses the counterpart of interactive machine learning, i.e., human learning while being in the loop in a human-machine collaboration. For such cases we propose the use of a Contradiction Matrix to assess the overlap and the contradictions of human and machine predictions. We show in a small-scaled user study with experts in the area of pneumology (1) that machine-learning based systems can classify X-rays with respect to diseases with a meaningful accuracy, (2) humans partly use contradictions to reconsider their initial diagnosis, and (3) that this leads to a higher overlap between human and machine diagnoses at the end of the collaboration situation. We argue that disclosure of information on diagnosis uncertainty can be beneficial to make the human expert reconsider her or his initial assessment which may ultimately result in a deliberate agreement. In the light of the observations from our project, it becomes apparent that collaborative learning in such a human-in-the-loop scenario could lead to mutual benefits for both human learning and interactive machine learning. Bearing the differences in reasoning and learning processes of humans and intelligent systems in mind, we argue that interdisciplinary research teams have the best chances at tackling this undertaking and generating valuable insights.
Monitoring is an indispensable tool for the operation of any large installation of grid or cluster computing, be it high energy physics or elsewhere. Usually, monitoring is configured to collect a small amount of data, just enough to enable detection of abnormal conditions. Once detected, the abnormal condition is handled by gathering all information from the affected components. This data is processed by querying it in a manner similar to a database.
This contribution shows how the metaphor of a debugger (for software applications) can be transferred to a compute cluster. The concepts of variables, assertions and breakpoints that are used in debugging can be applied to monitoring by defining variables as the quantities recorded by monitoring and breakpoints as invariants formulated via these variables. It is found that embedding fragments of a data extracting and reporting tool such as the UNIX tool awk facilitates concise notations for commonly used variables since tools like awk are designed to process large event streams (in textual representations) with bounded memory. A functional notation similar to both the pipe notation used in the UNIX shell and the point-free style used in functional programming simplify the combination of variables that commonly occur when formulating breakpoints.
We introduce tree-width for first order formulae φ, fotw(φ). We show that computing fotw is fixed-parameter tractable with parameter fotw. Moreover, we show that on classes of formulae of bounded fotw, model checking is fixed parameter tractable, with parameter the length of the formula. This is done by translating a formula φ with fotw(φ)<k into a formula of the k-variable fragment Lk of first order logic. For fixed k, the question whether a given first order formula is equivalent to an Lk formula is undecidable. In contrast, the classes of first order formulae with bounded fotw are fragments of first order logic for which the equivalence is decidable. Our notion of tree-width generalises tree-width of conjunctive queries to arbitrary formulae of first order logic by taking into account the quantifier interaction in a formula. Moreover, it is more powerful than the notion of elimination-width of quantified constraint formulae, defined by Chen and Dalmau (CSL 2005): for quantified constraint formulae, both bounded elimination-width and bounded fotw allow for model checking in polynomial time. We prove that fotw of a quantified constraint formula φ is bounded by the elimination-width of φ, and we exhibit a class of quantified constraint formulae with bounded fotw, that has unbounded elimination-width. A similar comparison holds for strict tree-width of non-recursive stratified datalog as defined by Flum, Frick, and Grohe (JACM 49, 2002). Finally, we show that fotw has a characterization in terms of a cops and robbers game without monotonicity cost.
In the upcoming years, the internet of things (IoT)will enrich daily life. The combination of artificial intelligence(AI) and highly interoperable systems will bring context-sensitive multi-domain services to reality. This paper describesa concept for an AI-based smart living platform with open-HAB, a smart home middleware, and Web of Things (WoT) askey components of our approach. The platform concept con-siders different stakeholders, i.e. the housing industry, serviceproviders, and tenants. These activities are part of the Fore-Sight project, an AI-driven, context-sensitive smart living plat-form.
Am vergangenen Freitag gab es im Bundestag eine Debatte über Netzneutralität. Diese konnte ich leider nicht live verfolgen, weil parallel die Arbeitsgruppe Urheberrecht der Enquete-Kommission tagte. Heise berichtet aber über die Debatte und ich gehe hier nur mal auf die dort zitierten Beiträge und Argumente ein. Besonders eingeschlagen hat das plakative Statement der FDP "Netzneutralität ist Internet-Sozialismus". ...